In 184 1 The Extraordinary Popular Fantasy and Popular Fanaticism, Scottish historian Charles MacKay gave a very vivid description of this tulip craze: "Everyone believes that tulip mania will last forever, and rich people all over the world will place orders with the Netherlands, and no matter what the price, someone will pay the bill. Europe's wealth is concentrated on the coast of poverty, and in such a lucky Netherlands, poverty will never return. Nobles, citizens, farmers, craftsmen, boatmen, attendants, and even chimney sweeps and old women in second-hand clothes shops all joined the tulip speculation. No matter what class you are in, people convert their property into cash and invest in this flower. ..... In a small town without an exchange, the bigger bar is the "auction house" for tulip trading. The bar not only provides dinner, but also confirms the transaction for the guests. Sometimes two or three hundred people will attend such a dinner party. In order to increase customer satisfaction, rows of large vases are often neatly placed on the dining table or sideboard, and the vases are filled with blooming tulips. "
A true story may more vividly illustrate the atmosphere and people's mood of that era. It is said that a shoemaker in The Hague cultivated a rare "black" tulip in a small plantation. After the news spread, a group of growers from Harlem visited him and persuaded him to sell them flowers. Finally, the shoemaker sold his treasure to them at a high price of 65,438+0,500 guilders. Unexpectedly, one of the buyers immediately threw the Queen of the Night to the ground and trampled it into a pool of mud with his feet. The shoemaker was stunned. Buyers easily explained that they also bred a nocturnal queen, and they were willing to pay any price to ensure that their flowers were unique, even tens of thousands of guilders if necessary.
By 1636, the price of tulips has risen to an outrageous level. Take a rare variety "Augustus Forever" as an example. The price of this tulip was 1.000 guilders in 1.623, and it has risen to 5500 guilders in 1.636. 1February 637, the price of an "eternal Augustus" was as high as 6,700 guilders. This price is enough to buy a mansion near canals of amsterdam or 27 tons of cheese! Compared with this top tulip, the increase of ordinary tulips is more "crazy". 1637 65438+ 10,10.5 pounds of ordinary "Witkrone" bulbs, the market price is only 64 guilders, but by February 5, it reached 1668 guilders! Don't forget, the average annual income of the Dutch at that time was only 150 Dutch guilders.
At the peak of this craze, that is, the winter from 1636 to 1637, people not only bought and sold tulip bulbs that had been harvested, but also bought and sold bulbs that were about to be harvested at 1637 in advance. Bulb futures market was born. Bulbs do not need to actually pay for goods before actual delivery, which further intensifies the hype of tulips. Because the newly formed futures market has no clear rules and no specific constraints on buyers and sellers, it makes it possible for businessmen to have sex in the futures market, making it possible to short, and making tulip bubble, which has been "blown up", expand rapidly in a short time.
No one immersed in tulip mania realized that an earth-shattering collapse was just around the corner.
Today's economists regard this tulip craze as the best case of the "bigger fool theory". By the end of 1636, any last remaining rationality has long been far away from the tulip market in the Netherlands. Although most people know that the price of tulip bulbs is far from its normal value, they prefer to believe that others will be more "stupid" than them and will willingly pay a higher price. But in any case, the speculative frenzy can't last forever. It did. The end of the tulip craze finally came unexpectedly on February 4th, 1637, and the biggest "fool" finally appeared.
Although the date when the bubble burst is clearly recorded, no one can tell how the speculative bubble burst. The reason why the bubble burst is still a mystery. People clearly remember that before this, the transaction went very smoothly, and no one knew why, so the market suddenly collapsed. Perhaps there is no better reason than saying that this is the inevitable result of the extreme expansion of the bubble.
For a time, the seller's massive selling caused the market to fall into a state of panic. At this time, tulips have become a hot potato, and no one dares to take over. The price of the light bulb is also like a boulder rolling down a cliff, plunging a thousand miles. The Dutch government issued a statement that the price of tulip bulbs has no reason to fall, suggested that citizens stop selling them, and tried to end all contracts at 10% of the contract price, but these efforts were useless. A week later, the price of tulips has dropped by 90% on average, and those common varieties of tulips are almost worthless, even less than the price of an onion.
By the time people realized it, it was too late. As a result, people flocked to the court, hoping to use the power of law to honor the contract and recover the losses. Soon, the court was submerged in the tulip lawsuit. Almost overnight, I don't know how many people became penniless, wealthy businessmen became beggars, and some big noble fell into irreparable bankruptcy. Among the victims are intellectuals with high education and illiterate people, because greed has no class boundaries.
Things got out of control and the government had to come forward to solve them, but they were helpless in the face of such a thorny problem. In the end, all the "bitter fruit" can only be swallowed by speculators themselves. 1637 On April 27th, the Dutch government decided to terminate all contracts and prohibit speculation in tulip trading. This time, people are completely desperate! Those who used to cry for the joy of getting rich overnight are now crying for the sudden arrival of poverty. The Dutch, who are physically and mentally exhausted, stare at the tulip bulbs in their hands with dull eyes every day and reflect on everything in their dreams. ...
As a result of the disaster, people hated tulips, and painters also got a place to display their talents. In a cartoon created by the famous painter Jan Brueghel, a group of stupid monkeys are trading tulips in full swing. Whether it is a florist, a florist, or a speculator involved in it, it has been mercilessly ridiculed by the painter.
The tulip incident not only dealt a heavy blow to the world-famous Amsterdam Stock Exchange, but also plunged the Dutch economy into chaos and accelerated the decline of the Netherlands from a powerful colonial empire. From the middle of17th century, Holland's position in Europe was strongly challenged by Britain, and the center of European prosperity began to shift to the other side of the English Channel.