So, how to solve this problem?
As we all know, money is like a flood. Whether it is Dayu's water control or Li Bing's father and son's water control in Dujiangyan, it is a combination of dredging and blocking, taking advantage of the situation, rather than hard blocking and hard cutting.
After analysis and research, the author and doctoral and master students think that China can solve this problem in the following ways:
1. RMB has greatly appreciated in one step, but it is very risky.
There is a big gap between RMB exchange rate and purchasing power parity, and it is less between countries. There is still much room for RMB to fluctuate and appreciate, and foreign investment is expected to be high. If you take a sharp and rapid appreciation in one step and announce that you will not move in five years. Then the influx of foreign capital and hot money will come to an abrupt end. The stock market will also stop rising.
But this will face the following risks: first, foreign trade exports will drop rapidly and sharply. Second, foreign investment in China will decrease rapidly. China's economy will rapidly cool down and deflation will become more serious. As China's export-oriented enterprises account for more than 50%, the number of unemployed people will increase sharply. At present, there are three kinds of unemployed people in China: about 200 million rural surplus labor force,150 thousand population entering cities; College students graduated 4.95 million a year and stayed in the city; Plus laid-off workers; Unemployment is very serious; The rapid appreciation of RMB will make this problem more serious. This is the most important social factor for China to treat RMB appreciation cautiously.
2. The bank substantially raised the interest rate to 8%- 10%.
The current stock market situation, if the interest rate is raised by 2-3 percentage points, will have little impact on the stock market. Shareholders will not withdraw from the stock market for one year because of raising interest rates by 2%, and they can make a profit of 50%- 100%. Raising interest rates by 8%- 10% will do great harm to the economy. First of all, inflation is only between 1%-2%, and there is no need to raise interest rates by 8%- 10%. Secondly, the difference between bank deposits and loans is 1 1 trillion. Do you still need to encourage deposits? Thirdly, overseas hot money is coming in faster, and the RMB is appreciating at a high interest rate. Why not come in? In two articles, the author pointed out that the appreciation of local currency and raising interest rates are wrong policies. This trick really shouldn't be used again.
3. The reserve ratio will be raised again.
The change of reserve ratio is a heavy weapon in monetary policy tools, which has a great multiplier effect and is used cautiously all over the world. However, China has improved four times in recent years.
Practice has proved that this is the most suitable measure for China. Because, its opponent is a day10-1200 million dollars of foreign exchange. Can be improved several times. But for investors, this hardly constitutes pressure.
In other countries, it is used so frequently that the stock market has long been a big bear. In China, it is unmoved, which also proves the huge amount of hot money around the stock market from one side.
4. Overall price increase-inflation
If the real estate market is strictly regulated and the stock market is strictly regulated, huge hot money is likely to be vented in the form of rising commodity prices, causing serious inflation nationwide, such as1985-1986 (+15 inflation),1994-/kloc-0. This is a situation that governments at all levels and 654.38+0.3 billion people are extremely unwilling to see.
5. Find another flood diversion area-how about restarting the real estate market?
When the currencies of Japanese and China Taiwan Province Province appreciated, the stock market and the real estate market rose together. When the Taiwan dollar appreciated, the Taiwan Province stock market rose from 1982 to 1989 (1 USD = 40 yuan NT, and later 1 USD = 25 yuan NT, with an appreciation of over 60% in seven years). The real estate market increased by 330% from 1985 to 1992. Similarly, when the yen appreciated, the Japanese real estate stock market rose 3.89 times, and the index rose from 100 to 340 points. The total price of real estate in Tokyo can buy the whole United States. A few years ago, during the real estate boom in China, about 2 trillion yuan entered the real estate speculation. Now that the central government is strictly controlling, real estate has lost its liquidity and cannot speculate at all. Now let the stock market fall and find another place to vent excess liquidity. Only the real estate market can compete with the stock market. What should I do, re-untie, cancel the five-year sales period, relax the mortgage requirements and proportions, and make loans at will? Let the real estate market get excited again-obviously contrary to the central macro-control spirit.
6. Conclusion: Bull market-the only effective choice to channel and vent excess liquidity is helplessness and the relatively best choice.
When we have ruled out other roads, China economic high-speed rail is the only effective choice when we come to the multi-branch road.
There are many advantages of bull market: ① More than 20 million state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and township enterprises in China can be listed as soon as possible to raise funds and speed up their development. ② It can expand the proportion of direct financing, reduce the difference between bank deposits and loans, and reduce the pressure on banks. ③ Stamp duty can be overcharged. ④ It can solve the pressure of excess liquidity, inflation and rising real estate prices. ⑤ It can improve people's awareness of investment and financial management.
Although the stock market is accelerating, it is suspected of a bubble. But what is a "bubble"? Xie Guozhong and Rogers don't know, and no one knows. Shanghai's kilowatt-hour is 0.6 1 yuan, Shenzhen's kilowatt-hour is 0.68 yuan and Russia's kilowatt-hour is 0.05 yuan. So, is there a bubble in electricity prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen? All commodity prices are actually caused by the relationship between supply and demand. Therefore, it is hard to say whether there is a bubble in China stock market. The P/E ratio of 32 times is completely reasonable for the actual deposit interest rate of 2%.
Or to study Wu Jinglian's speech. From this, we can understand some truths: (Wu Jinglian: the central bank is overwhelmed, and 30 trillion hot money is raising interest rates, which was written in Oriental Morning Post on June 65438+1 October 07, 2007) It is reported that Wu Jinglian said in Hong Kong a few days ago that the excess liquidity in China has reached a very serious level, and China's foreign exchange reserves currently exceed1trillion. Under the multiplier effect, it is equivalent to at least 30 trillion hot money making waves in the market, which led to the real estate boom last year and the current stock market frenzy. The central bank is already overwhelmed, and it is inevitable to raise interest rates in the next stage.
Well, to take a step back, even if there is a bubble, it is a little different from the bubble that fried Clivia and tulips in those days, and it is a little different from the illusory bubble that delivered parcels in those days. The bull market in China stock market is driven by real money. Due to the gradual appreciation of RMB, the massive inflow of foreign capital and overseas hot money, and the multiplier effect, its promotion to the stock market is not dangerous accumulation, nor accidental blowout, but the real swimming pool water is rising steadily day by day.
In the past, it was difficult for us to understand why Japanese and Taiwan Province economists and authorities failed to stop and burst the bubbles in the stock and housing markets in time. Now I understand that those are helpless choices when the local currency appreciates.
"Several advantages are more important than others, and several disadvantages are less important." Economists never talk about what is the best and what is the worst, only what is the best choice. When disaster or danger occurs, we choose the way and road with the least loss; When happiness and wealth appear, we choose the way and method with the largest interest and happiness index.
Therefore, the bull market is the only effective and best choice for China's rapid economic growth in 28 years. It is a realistic choice and there is no way out. Just issue more new shares, and it will be fine if it is fully circulated in 2008.
As for Rogers, don't take it too seriously. Although he is a master of investment, he is not a god, especially as a foreigner who doesn't understand China's national conditions. Foreigners can only refer to social science and major issues in China. Li De, who was extremely confident and conceited during the Red Army's Long March, led to the sacrifice of 100,000 troops of the Chinese Red Army of Workers and Peasants.
Rogers threw away his shares and sang empty songs everywhere. It is not as good as Soros who has been working with him for a long time. When Soros sang empty roubles before the rouble crash, his fund still had many positions in roubles. In addition, there are not a few Chinese and foreign investors who have taken Rogers' medicine. For example, in early 2006, Luo advocated in the reports of Hong Kong and Beijing that the oil price would rise to more than 65,438+000 USD/barrel. At that time, he also said that sugar would rise to 60 cents/bushel (at that time, it was 19 cents/bushel), and many people did more. Results On February 26th, 2007, the sugar price was still 10.67 cents/bushel. Oil is still at $54/barrel. Many people who listened to him as a futures trader suffered heavy losses. So let's just listen. A foreigner from a western country doesn't need to take his words as the Bible. I estimate that the probability of his misjudgment this time is 90%