What is the driving force behind the recent sustained increase in wheat prices?
The continuous rise of wheat price is not only affected by the relationship between supply and demand, but also closely related to the weather and the mentality of market participants.
The overall market supply is still tight
From June 5438+ 10, autumn grain will enter the stage of centralized listing all over the country, and many grain merchants will shift their focus from wheat to autumn grain crops such as corn, which will reduce the enthusiasm of wheat management as a whole. At the same time, in order to ensure the smooth acquisition of autumn grain, most traders have basically completed the warehousing work at the end of September, resulting in tight market supply.
Wheat prices rose, but downstream demand increased.
With the rising price of wheat, the cost of downstream flour processing enterprises is gradually increasing, and the profit pressure of flour enterprises is not small. At present, the price of flour has been raised. In addition, as the weather turns cold, it is beneficial to the storage of flour. With the gradual recovery of the demand for superimposed terminals, flour dealers began to replenish the goods when the inventory was reduced. In order to ensure the supply of goods, the overall operating rate began to increase compared with that before the National Day, and the demand for wheat increased, further pushing up the price of wheat.
Continuous rainy weather affects the circulation of wheat market
Recently, there have been varying degrees of continuous rainy weather all over the country, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and some northern regions. In the past month, there have been different degrees of rainfall in half the time, which not only seriously affected the market circulation of wheat, but also affected the harvest progress of autumn grain and the sowing progress of winter wheat. According to the autumn sowing schedule released by the Central Meteorological Observatory, as of June 65438+1October 1 1, the winter wheat sowing in China was only1.4%, which was about 20% in the same period last year. Therefore, the market is generally worried about the wheat harvest next year, which not only aggravates farmers' reluctance to sell, but also affects the wheat market.
To sum up, the recent sustained rise in wheat prices is not only affected by the relationship between market supply and demand, but also by the expected mentality of the market.
What is the market trend of wheat price in the afternoon?
What changes have taken place in the factors affecting the price of wheat after the price of wheat has risen for several days in a row? What are the expected influencing factors in the later period?
Traders have different mentality.
After a moderate increase in wheat prices for nearly half a month, the current market price of wheat in the main producing areas has increased by 60~80 yuan per ton, and the mentality of traders has also been divided. Some traders believe that the current price has basically reached the "ceiling" of the recent wheat price, so they began to ship properly on rallies; Some traders also believe that due to the generally higher acquisition cost in the early stage and the higher operating rate of downstream flour enterprises, there is still room for rising wheat prices in the market outlook.
The high operating rate of flour enterprises is unsustainable.
At present, China's flour industry has a serious overcapacity, and the overall situation is "strong wheat and weak flour", and the market competition is fierce. Despite the pressure of production cost, processing enterprises generally raised the price of flour after entering 65438+ 10, but as of 65438+ 10 and 65438+March, the average market price of refined flour was 3025 yuan/ton, which was lower than 3055 yuan/ton in the same period last year. At present, the gross profit of small and medium-sized flour processing enterprises is -60 yuan/ton, and the loss phenomenon is still obvious, which limits the enthusiasm for starting work to some extent.
With the continuous stocking of flour dealers in the near future, it is expected that the order volume will decrease in the future. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain a high operating rate in the later period, and it is expected that the demand for wheat processing will decline.
The minimum purchase price of wheat auction sales may be restored.
After entering the month of 10, the market is generally concerned about when the wheat auction with the lowest purchase price will start, because it will play a decisive role in the wheat market price to a certain extent. According to the historical situation, except for special circumstances in 2020, the auction sales have not been interrupted in recent years. The auctions of 20 18 and 20 19 started at the end of September and the beginning of 10 respectively. Choosing this time point, on the one hand, can effectively avoid the centralized listing time of new grain and make way for the acquisition of new grain, on the other hand, it can supplement the market supply when the circulation of bulk grain decreases.
On the whole, the shooting of 10 is a high probability event. No matter from the international or domestic food supply, the importance of ensuring food security is increasingly prominent. Because the production situation of corn this year is not optimistic, it is difficult for corn prices to fall sharply. Therefore, wheat is still an ideal substitute for corn. However, in order to avoid the excessive substitution of wheat for corn, perhaps this year's auction rules will be adjusted in terms of reserve price. While supplementing the supply of wheat in the market, the impact on the market price is more containment than suppression.
Based on the above factors, in the short term, the wheat market price still has room to rise, but the increase will be narrowed. In the medium and long term, wheat is still the most ideal substitute for corn, and with the continuous decrease of high-quality goods in the market, it is difficult for wheat prices to drop significantly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level.