The first is seasonal reasons, and the annual pig slaughter is at a low level. Affected by the low price of live pigs last year, although the productivity of fertile sows is still abundant, the breeding rate has declined, resulting in a lower slaughter in the third quarter than the same period last year. However, the supply of piglets has increased, and the enthusiasm for column replenishment has increased. The slaughter volume will increase month by month. Affected by imported inflationary pressure, seasonal increase in pork prices and other factors, coupled with the low base in the same period last year, the domestic price level will rise slightly from February this year to the first quarter of next year.

The second is to ensure the supply of pork in the holiday market. When the supply of live pigs and pork market is tight and the price rises sharply, we will promptly invest in government pork reserves to increase market supply and stabilize market prices. The price of pig food is higher than 12: 1, and the average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by more than 40% year-on-year. The national price of pig food was 7.82, up 1.96% from the previous month. In the third week of August, the price of pig food was 7.67, up 0.52% from the previous month, exceeding 7 for seven consecutive weeks, reaching a new high of nearly 65 weeks, the highest since the first week.

Furthermore, in the face of fluctuations in the price of live pigs, futures tools have played a certain role in helping industry risk management. In this round of pig cycle fluctuation, some large-scale breeding enterprises calculate the breeding income in advance according to the pig futures price signal, arrange the slaughter plan reasonably, and do not blindly eliminate sows. In September, this year's 1 1 and next year's 1 pig futures contract prices were quoted by the macro management department as a reference to guide industry expectations. As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, the price of live pigs is on the rise. It seems that under the constraint of supply, the price of live pigs may be difficult to break through the high point in July.

We should know that with the gradual increase of potential demand factors at the consumer end, the overall stock of large pigs at the supply end continues to decline, and the probability of a slight increase in the average price of large pigs nationwide will gradually increase. Coupled with the consumption effect of Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other festivals, and the gradual improvement of the consumption demand of residents' meat consumption, the total supply of live pigs will continue to decline month by month. The cold weather enters autumn. In response to unreasonable behaviors such as pressure sharing and property hoarding, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission is studying to start the central pork reserve, guiding all localities to put the reserve in time, and forming a joint force of regulation and control to prevent the price of live pigs from rising too fast.