First, affected by the epidemic, the rapid decline in demand side caused downward pressure on oil prices. As we all know, global crude oil imports are mainly concentrated in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, accounting for 94.9% of global crude oil imports. According to statistics, in 20 18, the total crude oil imports of Asia-Pacific countries were12120,000 tons, accounting for 53.6% of the total global crude oil imports, and the average external dependence of countries was 7 1.5%. In 20 18, China imported 465 million tons of crude oil, accounting for 20.5% of the world's crude oil imports, ranking first in the world, and its dependence on foreign countries was 72.5%. In 2.20 18, the United States imported 386 million tons of crude oil, accounting for 17. 1% of the world's crude oil imports, ranking second in the world, and its dependence on foreign countries was 42.0%. In 3.20 18, India imported 228 million tons of crude oil, accounting for10/0% of the global crude oil imports, ranking third in the world, and its dependence on foreign countries was 95.4%. In 4.20 18, Japan imported 1.5 1 10,000 tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 6.7% of the world's crude oil imports, ranking fourth in the world, and its dependence on foreign countries was 82.8%.

At present, affected by the epidemic, according to statistics, China's crude oil imports will drop sharply in 2020, which will lead to an increase in the stocks of oil-producing countries, and other countries are also suffering from the decline in demand brought about by the epidemic. When demand drops, oil prices will naturally be under pressure to cut prices.

Second, oil-producing countries failed to seek to reduce production and protect prices, and panic spread. Last Friday, negotiations between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia on crude oil production reduction broke down. On Monday, Saudi Arabia retaliated by lowering the price of crude oil, which caused the price of crude oil to fall by more than 30% after it fell by about 10% last Friday, hitting a low of $365,438 +0.38 in the day, which triggered the global concern about geopolitical and economic downside risks to escalate again.

In fact, this is due to the spread of panic caused by irrationality and the sharp drop in crude oil, which aggravated the plunge.

Third, short-selling institutions have repeatedly issued pessimistic expectations and short-selling remarks. I remember the crocodile on Wall Street was the fiercest short selling force. If you still remember that every time the economic crisis comes, there are always some predators who make a lot of money by shorting.

Last week, many international organizations thought that the international crude oil price might drop from about $45 to about $20, or even to about 10. I didn't expect the plunge to come so fast! It fell to $30 in less than a week, which is simply a flash crash mode!

The price of crude oil in 2020 is simply the beginning of a nightmare. In just over two months, the price of crude oil has dropped by half from the highest price of $65.65 at the beginning of the year. The lowest drop to $27.34, in short, is a horror.

At this time, a global concern is whether the nightmare of 20 14 oil price collapse will repeat itself. As we all know, at that time, Saudi Arabia and Russia competed for market share with American shale oil producers who had never participated in the production restriction agreement, which led to a sharp increase in production and a decline in prices. At that time, the sales revenue was not enough to cover the cost of shale oil, which forced many American shale oil producers to go bankrupt and fell to the level of $25 at the end of 20 15 and the beginning of 20 16.

However, shale oil survived by borrowing. After the organization of petroleum exporting countries, it had to win over Russia to reduce production. Today, the crude oil world is still paying for Saudi Arabia's decision that year.

Of course, as a big importer of crude oil, we just believe that the plunge in oil prices is absolutely beneficial and harmless, so how much foreign exchange reserves can we save? The plunge in crude oil prices is conducive to the internationalization of the RMB, and the dollar is no longer so arrogant.