However, on February 23, the market picked up, and treasury bonds futures closed up across the board. The five-year main contract rose by 0. 17%, and the yield of main inter-bank interest rate bonds fell by 2 ~ 4 BP. In the eyes of the industry, on the one hand, it is influenced by the central bank's efforts to increase the open market, on the other hand, it also shows that the bond market has fully responded to relevant emotions and is expected to stabilize in the short term.
Although the emotional shock has been fulfilled, the follow-up needs to see whether the data side can confirm it. Ming Ming, the co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, told reporters that the current interest rate is still facing great upward pressure, and 3.0% will be the top constraint of this round of 10-year national debt yield to maturity. On the whole, the bond market is still in the adjustment period, but it is not a big turning point in the trend. After adjustment, opportunities will gradually emerge.
The bond market is in turmoil again.
A few days ago, although geopolitical risks further deepened global risk aversion, the domestic bond market continued its independent trend and continued to fall, and treasury bond futures continued to explore.
Wind information shows that on February 22nd, treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with 10 main contract falling by 0. 13%, 5-year main contract falling by 0. 15% and 2-year main contract falling by 0.10/%. Among them, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures closed below 100 yuan for two consecutive trading days, hitting a new low of more than two months.
In terms of cash bonds, the trend of interest rate bonds among major banks with different maturities is different, the yield of long bonds is slightly lower, and the yield of short-term bonds is obviously higher. As of 22nd 17, 10, the yield of 0-year CDB active bonds went up by 0.75BP, and that of 5-year CDB active bonds went up by 3.5BP. 10-year treasury bonds yield down 1.45BP, and 5-year treasury bonds yield up1.75bp.
On February 23, the situation changed. Treasury futures stopped falling and closed up across the board. 10 main contract rose by 0. 16%, 5-year main contract rose by 0. 17%, and 2-year main contract rose by 0.07%.
In terms of cash bonds, the yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds generally declined, and the 5-year varieties performed better. As of 23rd 17, the yield of 10-year CDB bonds dropped by 2.5BP, that of 10-year CDB bonds by 2.72BP, that of 5-year CDB bonds by 4BP and that of 5-year CDB bonds by 3.75BP.
Many industry insiders interviewed by CBN said that the decline of the bond market was mainly affected by the recent relaxation policy of the property market. Recently, some banks in Heze, Shandong, Chongqing, Ganzhou, Jiangxi and other places adjusted the down payment ratio of mortgage loans from the previous 30% to 20%; At the same time, mortgage interest rates in some areas have also been lowered. For example, from February 2 1, the four major banks simultaneously lowered the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou. In this context, the bond market is weak.
According to the data of RealData, in February this year, the statistics of nationwide 103 urban mortgage transactions showed that the mainstream interest rates of mortgage loans in 87 cities were lowered from the previous month, among which the mainstream interest rates of first home loans in Huizhou, Zhongshan and Hohhot were greatly lowered, reaching 30BP, Chongqing, Nanjing and Shaoxing were lowered by 25BP, and Wuxi, Wenzhou and Changzhou were lowered by 20BP.
"The relaxation of real estate triggered the general credit expectation to heat up and the bond market fell below the support level. With the release of real estate relaxation policies in many places, concerns about marginal wide credit in the bond market have further warmed up. " Qin Han, chief fixed income analyst of Guotai Junan.
In Qin and Han dynasties, the relaxation of real estate has two pulse effects on the bond market, first emotion and then data. In the medium term, the current relaxation is more a continuation of the policy shift to "rectification" since the second half of 20021,and also a reflection of the expected demand for stable real estate in some areas with high housing prices and high inventory pressure.
Mingming also said that before the real estate sales continued to decline, private housing enterprises defaulted on bonds one after another, and the land market transactions were deserted. In the case of restricted real estate, investors are skeptical about the effect of "wide credit". However, with the increasing signal of real estate demand relaxation, the factors that restricted "wide credit" have gradually weakened, and the bond market is getting closer and closer to the critical point.
At present, with the relaxation of the demand-side policy of real estate, some analysts say that the signal of upward sales of commercial housing may appear as soon as March this year. As a result, the land market and real estate development may also improve. "Although land investment may shrink in 2022, it is expected that Jian 'an investment will maintain a growth rate of more than 5%, and real estate investment is expected to maintain a positive growth rate of 2% to 3%. "Obviously, the analysis said.
Regarding the recovery of the bond market on the 23rd, some people think that this is due to the increase of loose expectations, and the central bank has increased capital investment, which has boosted market sentiment. On the one hand, the first document of the Central Committee was issued, which mentioned that more favorable deposit reserve policy should be implemented for local corporate financial institutions; On the other hand, on the 23rd, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 200 billion yuan, and after the hedging expired at 654.38+0 billion yuan, it realized a net investment of 654.38+09 billion yuan that day.
Reflected in the capital market, the overall level of funds remained stable. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) is mixed. Overnight varieties went up by 0.4BP to 2.043%, down by 0.2BP to 2. 1.5BP in 7 days and down by 0.2 BP to 2.308% in 1 month.
It is difficult to have a big market in the short term.
Although the negative emotions have been exchanged, the widespread credit concerns caused by the reduction of mortgage interest rates in some cities are still fermenting, and the bond market will remain under pressure.
Mingming told reporters that the total amount of credit in June 5438+ 10 was high, but the structure was poor. The introduction of current support policies is expected to increase personal medium and long-term loans and further optimize the credit structure. As the effect of "wide credit" policy continues to appear, there is limited room for further easing of monetary policy. Generally speaking, the policy mix has changed from the previous "wide money and wide credit" to "stable money and wide credit".
"With the gradual shift of trading focus, the expectation and landing effect of wide credit and steady growth will continue to impact the bond market, and the bond market yield will also face greater adjustment pressure." Obviously, but steady growth is not equal to strong stimulus. Although the real estate-related policies are marginal, there is still a big difference from 20 14 to 20 16. Under the background of "housing is not speculation", the policy is still cautious, so the upward rate of interest rates is expected to be limited.
The research report of AVIC Securities also mentioned that it is unlikely that interest rates will rise sharply under the current uncertain credit trend. However, considering that the easy credit policy is still being introduced, the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission have frequently voiced recently, and the words "as soon as possible", "as soon as possible", "in advance" and "improve" have appeared many times. Various policies and efforts for steady growth in the first quarter are constantly increasing, so the risk of interest rate recovery is not ruled out, and the bond market has turned into a state of shock.
In fact, for the bond market, real estate relaxation is only a catalyst to amplify emotions, and the core is the expected downward adjustment of broad money. Qin and Han Dynasties believed that the core "wide money" supporting the rise of the bond market was weakened after the release of the financing data of 5438+ 10 in June. In the "hesitation" of whether to reduce the duration of bonds, we encountered many subtle negative catalysis, and our cautious mood was amplified. The future bond market may still experience a "difficult" period, but it is still optimistic about the medium-term dimension (one quarter).
The consensus in the industry is that there is no systemic risk in the bond market before the shift of monetary policy, but in the tortuous process of steady growth and wide credit, the fluctuation of long-term interest rates will increase.
Yang Ye, an analyst at Guo Sheng Securities, said that due to the city's policy, it is expected that some places will relax their real estate control policies in the future. In addition to lowering the mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio, the purchase restriction policy may also be adjusted. Coupled with abundant infrastructure projects and funds, it is not excluded that construction will accelerate and infrastructure investment will pick up. The gradual recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment will lead to credit easing and economic recovery, so the risk of long-term interest rate adjustment will gradually increase.