It is true that the price of pigs has risen frequently in recent days, climbing to new highs one after another, which is also caused by many benefits.
First of all, the spot price of live pigs has continued to rise since the weekend. Driven by the unexpected rise in the spot market on Monday, the futures price of live pigs broke through the "20,000 yuan mark".
By the afternoon of June 27th, the contract for live pig 2209 had closed at 20,650 yuan/ton, up by 4.90%, and the highest intraday price reached 20,845 yuan/ton, the highest since 20021June, which directly anchored the "wind vane" for the subsequent strength of pig prices.
Then there is the production capacity of domestic sows. After reaching a high point in June 20021year, it has been continuously reduced by nearly 10 months, corresponding to the inflection point of supply in April-May this year, and the supply may continue to decrease until the end of the year. Generally speaking, the supply of live pigs is relatively tight at present.
Especially at the end of the month, the slaughter plan of large pig enterprises has been basically completed or greatly reduced this month, farmers are bullish, and the overall slaughter volume is limited, resulting in a "tight" supply of live pigs in the market.
Furthermore, after the end of the continuous rainstorm in many places in the south in the early stage, a large-scale rainstorm has recently ushered in many places in the north, and it is obviously more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to purchase pigs. At the same time, the group's pig enterprises are enthusiastic about bidding, and the market sentiment is one-sided, which makes it more difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase pigs. The high price of "grabbing pigs" is prominent, and the cost of pig sources from slaughterhouses to factories has increased significantly. In order to stabilize customers' daily orders, slaughter enterprises were forced to raise prices to ensure quantity, and domestic pig prices soared again.
Finally, the consumer side also ushered in a certain positive stimulus. The data shows that the opening price of white bars in Beijing and Shanghai wholesale markets is adjusting, and the opening price in Beijing market is rising 1.5-2.0 yuan/kg; Many markets in Shanghai are still greatly affected by epidemic factors, and the average transaction price in some markets is 23.5-24.5 yuan/kg. However, it is officially announced that the Shanghai catering industry will open its canteens in an orderly manner from June 29, and the market has performed well. Under these favorable incentives, do you think the second brother can perform well and cheer for pig farmers?
In the short term, the market bullish sentiment is still high around the end of June. With the continuous rainfall in many places, it is difficult to significantly improve the slaughter of pigs, and the price of pigs will still show a trend of "partial increase".
At the same time, farmers should also be vigilant. In this context, as well as the sluggish consumer market, slaughterhouses have suffered serious losses, and the higher the pig price, the greater the risk of later callback. At present, it can only be said that the most difficult time for farmers has passed, but in the case that the absolute number of sows can be multiplied this year is not low, it may also limit the upward height of pig prices in the second half of the year. At the press conference on June 28th, the National Development and Reform Commission also stressed: Strengthen the regulation of pig production capacity to prevent price fluctuations.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 25% and fell by 1, and the rising areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas. The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is 9.52 yuan/kg at the lowest, 9.83 yuan/kg at the highest, and 9.68 yuan/kg as a whole, which is 0.9 yuan/kg higher than the average price of live pigs nationwide yesterday.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase, and the rainstorm in the northern region is still outstanding, which is very difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase. The arrival volume of slaughter enterprises in the north is relatively normal, while that of some enterprises in the southwest is very small.
At present, the market price in the northern region shows preference, and the average prices in Northeast China, North China and East China all exceed 10 yuan/kg, while the pig price in the southwest region shows deviation. Due to the bidding of group pig farms, the price difference between northeast and southwest is 0.5 yuan/kg, and the price difference is prominent.
Market sentiment is still one-sided, and bullish sentiment is still outstanding.
The price of pigs in the breeding group showed a majority increase, while the price of pigs in the breeding group showed a general increase, and the increase was obviously expanded. The phenomenon of pig price premium of breeding groups in the northern region has expanded, and the number of pigs listed on the leading group bidding platform has increased or decreased, and the overall pig price has declined to a certain extent. The increase is obvious, and the offline trading volume presents a certain phenomenon of heavy volume, and the increase is enlarged, and traders are more enthusiastic about bidding.
In the north of China, the price of white pigs in slaughter enterprises shows a certain upward trend. In some enterprises, the price of pigs with white stripes rose by 1.500- 1.800 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of traders for receiving goods was average, and the pig products showed a certain upward trend.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a "large-scale rise" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome everyone to exchange views on the hog market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and tomorrow will be more exciting. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will rise again.