Wheat prices have been rising for some time, and some areas even have the impulse to rush to 1.7 yuan. However, the recent increase in wheat prices has changed, and some enterprises have lowered their purchase prices.
After more than a month of continuous decline, the pig price has rebounded slightly in the last two days, and the pig price has bottomed out.
The price of sheep seems ideal, but in fact it is very worrying.
Oil prices are expected to fall sharply.
Except for a few areas, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is basically around 8.3 yuan, and the domestic price of No.95 gasoline is basically around 8.9 yuan. Although there has been a "two-day losing streak" in domestic refined oil prices recently, the previous two declines are very limited and have little impact on oil prices.
However, with the recent continuous drop in international oil prices, it is predicted that domestic refined oil prices will drop sharply when the price of 65438 is adjusted on February 5, with a drop of 380 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a drop of 0.29-0.34 yuan per liter. A 50L fuel tank can save 15 yuan.
By then, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline will drop to around 8 yuan, and the prices of Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hunan and other regions with relatively low oil prices will return to the "7 yuan level".
The price of No.95 gasoline will drop to around 8.6 yuan.
Not only is it expected that the oil price of 65438 will fall on February 5th, but it will continue to fall in the future, because there have been frequent bearish warnings about oil prices in the market recently:
1. As of1October 24th, Oman futures of Dubai Mercantile Exchange plunged by about 80% compared with the premium of Dubai crude oil swap this month, and fell to a nearly seven-month low, indicating that the market was bearish on 12 to the oil price in April next year.
2. At present, the international crude oil supply is relatively sufficient, and the market is bearish on oil prices, as can be seen from the fact that the spot price difference of Brent crude oil has dropped to premium.
3. The market's expectation for the recovery of oil demand in the later period is weakening.
Wheat rise and change
After two consecutive rounds of rising wheat prices, wheat prices in some areas are getting closer and closer to 1.7 yuan. Due to the recent continuous increase in wheat prices, many people think that it is no problem to break through 1.7 yuan.
However, after all, there are many negative factors in the market. Before wheat rose to 1.7 yuan, there was news of price reduction in the market recently, and some enterprises began to lower the price of wheat, which led to a change in the price increase of wheat.
What is holding back the rise of wheat?
1. Although all localities have entered the peak season of flour demand, the recovery of flour demand is limited due to the epidemic situation.
2. The trend of flour is not smooth. Under the current wheat price, flour enterprises need to bear the pressure of high cost and increase their willingness to reduce prices.
3. Poor transportation not only affects the quantity of wheat in the market, but also affects the transportation of flour. With the increase of enterprise flour inventory, the enthusiasm of purchasing wheat is reduced.
This year, the wheat yield is high and the supply is guaranteed.
Although some enterprises have reduced the purchase price, don't be nervous. First of all, only a few enterprises have started to lower their prices. Secondly, the peak demand for flour in the market has not yet arrived, and the price of wheat still has strong support, which is unlikely to fall sharply.
Pig prices bottomed out and rebounded.
According to pig dealers, the price of pigs has stopped falling and steadily increased, with Henan rising by 0. 1 yuan, Jiangsu rising by 0. 15 yuan, Anhui rising by 0.2 yuan, and Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Heilongjiang and other northern regions also rising to varying degrees. Affected by the rebound of pig prices in some areas, the national average pig price was raised by 0. 1 1 yuan/kg.
Next, the rise and fall of pig prices depends on three points:
First, how much fat has been consumed by the market in the process of the sharp drop in pig prices in the last month or so.
If the consumption is large, the pig price is expected to continue to rise in the case that the follow-up pigs are mainly standard pigs and the weight of pigs in the market drops.
Second, to what extent can the good processing of bacon and sausage drive the consumption of pork.
What is certain is that the national pig production capacity is higher than the general demand. If the price of pigs wants to rise, it needs the rigid consumption welfare of bacon or Spring Festival. If these two advantages cannot greatly stimulate the rise of pig prices, it will be very difficult for pig prices to rise sharply in 2022.
Affected by the cold wave, the temperature in the south will drop significantly, and the demand for bacon in the southwest will drop by about 10 degrees Celsius. It is expected that bacon will also be open, and its role in promoting pig prices will gradually feed back to the pig price end.
Third, when will the epidemic stop restricting consumers?
In June, the price of pigs fell, and in 165438+ 10, there was a stampede effect after the centralized listing of large chemical fertilizers, and there were also reasons why the epidemic affected the terminal consumption. It is understood that some areas have gradually relaxed prevention and control, which will promote the catering consumption of pork to a certain extent and benefit the pig market.
The price of sheep is worrying.
In recent weeks, the price of sheep in China has basically hovered between 25-25.3 yuan/kg, which is indeed much higher than that of pigs, but this price is still very worrying for sheep farmers, mainly because sheep still lose money at this price.
The sharp drop of pig price in June 165438+ 10 is still difficult to increase. Although the cold season in winter is the peak demand season for mutton, the retail price of mutton as high as a catty in 40 yuan will still deter many people. Without good consumption support, the road of sheep price increase is far away.
However, the current feed price is at a high level. With the rising price of corn, the cost of raising sheep will further increase, and many sheep farmers have begun to retreat. Once the market opens the exit mode for farmers, a batch of ewes will flow into the market, which will further put pressure on sheep prices and increase farmers' losses.
According to the agency's forecast, the time for sheep prices to improve should appear in May and June of 2023. Farmers can adjust the breeding structure appropriately according to the situation of their own sheep farms and market forecasts.