At present, the growth rate of the world economy is slowing down, unstable and uncertain factors are increasing, and the situation is severe and complicated. Maintaining economic growth is an important basis for coping with the financial crisis. Countries should adjust their macroeconomic policies, actively promote economic growth and avoid global economic recession through necessary financial and monetary means. Measures should be taken to stabilize the international energy and food markets, curb speculation and create favorable conditions for world economic development. In particular, the international community should prevent all forms of trade and investment protectionism and strive to promote positive progress at an early date in the Doha Round negotiations.
The international community should conscientiously sum up the lessons of the financial crisis and make necessary reforms to the international financial system on the basis of full consultation among all stakeholders. The reform of the international financial system should adhere to the direction of establishing a fair, just, inclusive and orderly new international financial order and strive to create an institutional environment conducive to the healthy development of the global economy. The reform of the international financial system should adhere to the principles of comprehensiveness, balance, gradualism and effectiveness. Comprehensiveness means overall design, that is, to improve the international financial system, monetary system and financial organizations, as well as international financial rules and procedures, embody the universal laws and principles of financial supervision, and consider the development stages and characteristics of different economies. Balance means making overall plans, reflecting the interests of all parties in a balanced way, and forming a decision-making and management mechanism in which all parties participate more extensively and effectively, especially the interests of emerging market countries and developing countries. Gradual, that is, step by step, under the premise of maintaining the stability of the international financial market, the easy is first and then the difficult is implemented in stages, and the reform goal is finally achieved through continuous efforts. Effectiveness means emphasizing results. All reform measures should be conducive to maintaining international financial stability, promoting world economic development and enhancing the well-being of people around the world.
Based on the above considerations, we advocate focusing on the following reform measures. First, strengthen international financial supervision and cooperation, improve the international supervision system, establish a code of conduct for rating agencies, increase the monitoring of global capital flows, strengthen the supervision of various financial institutions and intermediary organizations, and enhance the transparency of financial markets and their products. The second is to promote the reform of international financial organizations, reform the decision-making mechanism of international financial organizations, improve the representation and voice of developing countries in international financial organizations, establish an early warning system covering the whole world, especially major international financial centers, improve the internal governance structure of international financial organizations, establish a timely and efficient crisis response and rescue mechanism, and improve the ability of international financial organizations to effectively perform their duties. The third is to encourage regional financial cooperation, enhance the ability of liquidity mutual assistance, strengthen the construction of regional financial infrastructure, and give full play to the role of regional fund rescue mechanism. Fourth, improve the international monetary system, steadily promote the diversification of the international monetary system and support the stability of the international monetary system.
Dear colleagues!
With the deepening of economic globalization, the economic and financial ties of countries around the world are getting closer and closer. This financial crisis has not only seriously impacted the financial markets of developed countries, but also affected developing countries to varying degrees, and this influence will continue to expand. In this regard, we must have enough understanding. Developing countries have a low level of economic development, a single economic structure and a weak financial system's ability to resist risks. When dealing with the financial crisis, the international community should pay special attention to and minimize the damage caused by the crisis to developing countries, especially the least developed countries.
First, help developing countries maintain financial stability and economic growth. The international community, especially developed countries, should shoulder their due responsibilities and obligations and take practical measures to help developing countries, especially African countries, overcome difficulties. In particular, when implementing macroeconomic policies, we should pay attention to the impact on developing countries and avoid aggravating their difficulties. International financial organizations should establish a more convenient mechanism by relaxing loan conditions and other measures to provide timely assistance to developing countries severely affected by the financial crisis. The efforts of emerging market countries to maintain sustained and steady economic growth should be supported.
Second, effectively maintain and increase assistance to developing countries. Developing countries are facing severe challenges in achieving development, and the financial crisis has made their situation even worse. How to overcome the financial crisis and achieve the UN Millennium Development Goals at the same time is the responsibility of the whole world. Developed countries should continue to fulfill their aid commitments to developing countries and promote the international poverty reduction process. For the least developed countries, it is more important to reduce their debts, reduce tariffs on their export products, expand technology transfer, and try their best to help them build infrastructure and enhance their self-development capabilities.
Third, effectively safeguard the economic and financial stability of developing countries. Developing countries should adopt correct macroeconomic policies, improve their financial systems and improve their ability to prevent financial crises according to their actual development. At the same time, efforts should be made to change the mode of economic development, adjust the economic structure and maintain stable economic development.
Dear colleagues!
Since the beginning of this year, major natural disasters have occurred in China, and the international financial crisis has also affected the economic development of China. China adjusted its policies in time according to changes in the situation, strengthened macro-control, and maintained the momentum of steady and rapid economic development. The basic situation of China's economic development has not changed. China's steady and rapid economic development is itself an important contribution to maintaining international financial stability and promoting world economic development. China Municipal Government will continue to take effective measures to enhance the predictability, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control, focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, focus on changing the mode of economic development, adjust the economic structure, strengthen the basic position of agriculture, increase farmers' income, persist in deepening reform and opening up, achieve steady and rapid economic growth, and play a constructive role in promoting world economic stability.
In order to promote economic development, the China Municipal Government has taken measures such as reducing the bank reserve ratio, lowering the deposit and loan interest rates, and reducing the corporate tax burden. Recently, more powerful measures have been taken to expand domestic demand. It is decided that the central government will increase investment by 1000 billion yuan this year, and accelerate the construction of people's livelihood projects, infrastructure, ecological environment and post-disaster reconstruction. It is estimated that the total scale of social investment will be 400 billion yuan. From the fourth quarter of this year to the end of 20 10, China will invest nearly 4 trillion yuan in these projects alone. The implementation of these measures will certainly promote the economic development of China and the world.
As a responsible member of the international community, China has been actively participating in international cooperation in response to the financial crisis, and has played a positive role in maintaining international financial stability and promoting world economic development. China is willing to continue to participate in international cooperation in maintaining international financial stability and promoting world economic development in a responsible manner, support international financial organizations to increase their financing capacity according to changes in the international financial market, and increase their support for developing countries affected by the financial crisis. We are willing to actively participate in the trade financing plan of the International Finance Corporation of the World Bank.
Dear colleagues!
During the Seventh Asia-Europe Summit held not long ago, East Asian leaders held in-depth discussions on strengthening regional financial cooperation, and agreed that strengthening financial cooperation, preventing and resisting financial crisis should be the focus of strengthening regional cooperation, and actively promote flexible and diverse regional financial cooperation; Make full use of the signed bilateral currency swap agreements, actively and steadily promote the development of Asian capital markets, promote the process of East Asian Free Trade Area, support ASEAN integration, and oppose and guard against trade protectionism. Asian and European leaders also discussed the current international financial and economic situation in depth, and agreed to make full use of regional cooperation mechanisms such as the Asia-Europe Meeting, strengthen pragmatic cooperation in information communication, policy exchange, supervision and management in the financial field, effectively monitor, guard against and respond to financial risks, and promote the sustained, stable and healthy development of the world economy.
Dear colleagues!
The stability of the international financial market and the sustained development of the world economy are of vital importance to the well-being of all countries and people in the world. Let's work together, cooperate and evaluate the answers you have already evaluated! Good: 8 You have already evaluated it! Bad: 4 You have already evaluated it! Original: 0 You have already evaluated it! Non-original: 5 flowers are like media, and the answer adoption rate is 6.2%. 2008- 12-27 20:28 A light-year testimony: Thank you ~ Satisfied answer: 66% of China government has adopted a series of macro-control policies aimed at stimulating economic expansion in response to the adverse impact of the Asian financial crisis on China's economy, mainly including (. From 1998 to 2002, the Chinese government issued 100 billion yuan of long-term treasury bonds every year for several consecutive years, with a cumulative issuance scale of 660 billion yuan, directly driving investment of more than 3.2 trillion yuan. (2) Loosening monetary policy, including lowering interest rate and reserve ratio, and loosening loan policy.
At present, China is in the stage of heavy industry in the national economy, and the production of means of production, namely heavy industry, is much faster than that of consumer goods, namely light industry. Since 2000, the production speed of heavy industry in China has been continuously higher than that of light industry by 3-5 percentage points, and the proportion of heavy industry in industry has increased from 65,438+50.7% in 0998 to 66.5% in 2004. The capital intensity of the economy has been greatly improved.
According to the preliminary judgment, China's economy is likely to enter a relatively large economic recession in the next few years.
1. Three long-term factors in change
It should be noted that three long-term factors supporting China's economic growth are changing:
Low-cost labor factor. With the increase of capital intensity of national economy, the trend of capital replacing labor is very obvious. The advantage of low-cost labor is gradually weakening. At the same time, the labor market price tends to rise. The shortage of migrant workers in some areas in recent two years reflects this situation. In addition, the social welfare policies actively promoted by the state, such as the labor security system, will also increase the real price of labor.
The positive effect of institutional change or institutional transformation on economic growth is decreasing. After more than 20 years' efforts, the institutional framework of China's market economy has been basically established. At present, the main problem is to form a "good" operating foundation of the market economic system. This is a mature process of natural growth and takes a long time. In the future, it may be difficult to have the potential energy to stimulate economic growth suddenly due to the relaxation of institutional constraints.
High savings. High propensity to save is a remarkable feature of China people. Other East Asian countries, such as Japan and Singapore, have also experienced similar phenomena. At present, China's national savings rate is as high as 46%, while the Japanese's savings rate is less than 40%. In 2004, the average marginal savings rate of China people was as high as 80%. The result of high savings supports high investment, which drives high growth. It should be said that high savings is still an important factor supporting China's long-term economic growth. But at the same time, we should also see that the intergenerational change of saving tendency is very obvious. Some scholars have found that due to the intergenerational changes of income subjects, the saving tendency of Japanese and China Taiwan Province Province has been greatly reduced. Some experts predict that after 20 10, China will enter an aging society, and the rational behavior of the elderly population is not saving or saving at all. Therefore, with the acceleration of population aging in China, the national savings rate in China is likely to drop rapidly from the current high level in the next 10 year.
The change of production mode makes economic fluctuation inevitable.
As mentioned earlier, China's economy is currently experiencing the process of capital intensification or capital deepening. The benefits of capital-intensive driving economic growth are obvious, but the result is that the capital structure is more complicated and the production process from final input to final sales is longer (the characteristic of modern economy is "producing goods with commodities"). In other words, the production process is more "circuitous", that is, the so-called "circuitous production" is more indirect and intertemporal, and the current production depends on future consumption. In this way, economic fluctuation will become a normal feature of China's economy, which is inevitable. The reason is:
First, due to the complexity of capital structure and the extension of production process, the proportional relationship between various departments of the national economy is extremely complicated. It is very difficult to achieve the balance between production and consumption, supply and demand. Even if the market signal is not distorted by human intervention, the imbalance between supply and demand will be a normal feature. This is because the current market signal cannot fully reflect the future market supply and demand relationship. The futures market can only stabilize and adjust the current supply and demand and the future supply and demand.
Second, the limited rationality of entrepreneurs also determines that economic fluctuations are inevitable. In other words, no matter how clever entrepreneurs are, it is impossible to predict the future, and there is what Hayek called "hopeless ignorance." Entrepreneurs' miscalculation, especially "collective miscalculation", also makes economic fluctuation an inevitable phenomenon.
Thirdly, the phenomenon of price signal distortion in China factor market is still serious. The main reason is that the development of capital market and land market is imperfect, and interest rate and land price can't really reflect the relationship between supply and demand, which increases the possibility of economic fluctuation.
The problem is how to deal with the inevitable economic fluctuations. First of all, we must understand and adapt to economic fluctuations. Economic fluctuation and modern market economy are innate. To engage in a market economy, we must accept or bear economic fluctuations. Secondly, we should see the positive effects of economic fluctuations. An important function of market economy is "survival of the fittest", and the role of "survival of the fittest" can only be fully played in economic fluctuations. This is the automatic liquidation mechanism of economic fluctuations.
What we can't accept is that economic fluctuations turn into economic cycles, depression after prosperity, and what happened in the United States 80 years ago. Under what conditions, economic fluctuations will evolve into economic cycles? According to Mises-Hayek's business cycle theory, when credit is excessively expanded, economic fluctuations will evolve into economic cycles.
Monetary and credit expansion factors
At present, China's policy circles and academic circles have generally accepted the view of modern monetarism, the mainstream western economics, that is, inflation means credit expansion, which is equal to general price increase, and deflation means credit contraction, which is equal to general price decline. However, in recent years, economists of modern Austrian school in the United States have suggested that the expansion and contraction of money and credit are not necessarily reflected in the price level, especially in the prices of consumer goods, such as CPI and RPI. Because monetary credit expansion can also be manifested as:
The first is the rise in asset prices. For example, the stock market and real estate market prices have risen. This was the case with the American economy 80 years ago. This situation also exists to varying degrees in China today, which is mainly manifested in the real estate market at present.
Second, make more social resources flow into the capital goods production sector (heavy industry). Because capital is cheaper, the price increase of capital goods may not be transmitted to the final consumer goods, and the prices of consumer goods and capital goods may be upside down. In the past two years, the prices of means of production in China have risen rapidly, with an average increase of 2.2% in 2003 and 5.6% in 2004, while the retail prices of commodities have increased very little in the same period, and still declined in 2003, only increasing by 1.3 percentage points in 2004.
Third, we should consider "saving money". In the case of currency as a means of trading, there is indeed a positive correlation between currency and price, but currency is not just a means of trading. At present, China's capital market and bond market are immature, and money is still a form of personal wealth. If money flows out of the banking system and becomes cash in people's hands, it will not affect prices. If the hoarded money is deposited in the bank, the credit expansion will be further enlarged under the action of the money multiplier, and the money will circulate itself in the banking system.
In a word, judging whether China's economy is inflation or deflation at present, we should not only look at CPI, but also look at the amount of money. Specifically, it is the actual monetary balance (the actual monetary balance is the currency after deducting the price factor). If the real money balance growth exceeds the real economic growth for a long time, we should be very vigilant, indicating that there has been a certain degree of credit expansion.
Judging by this standard, is there credit inflation in China at present? For a long time, China's real money balance has continuously exceeded the real economic growth rate by 3% ~ 10%, and the ratio of M2 to GDP has exceeded 1: 1.8. This ratio is probably the highest among the major economic countries in the world. If we only look at this indicator, credit inflation does exist in China's economy at present. At present, the monetization process of China's economy has not been completed (for example, land acquisition is actually a monetization process), and part of the money stock is offset by this factor, but even so, the actual money balance stock is still too large. In particular, part of the money stock is actually used to dilute the bad debts of the banking system. There are systemic risks in China's gold system.
China's economy "suffers from high growth disease"
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth. During the 27 years from 1978 to 2004, the economic growth rate was less than 7% in only three years, and the average growth rate was over 9%. There are two questions here:
The first question: Will China's economy continue to maintain such high growth in the next 10 to 20 years? Japan maintained a high growth rate of 9% in only 19 years (1955 ~ 1973), which was a miracle at that time. In the next 10 year, Japan's highest economic growth rate is only 6. 1%. The average growth rate of the American economy from the Civil War to the Great Depression was less than 5%. At this stage, the United States completed the "super-British" turn and achieved the status of world hegemon.
No matter from the historical experience of world economic development or according to Condra's long wave theory, it is unlikely that China's economy will continue to maintain a high-speed growth of 8% ~ 9% in the next 10 to 20 years.
The second question: Can China's economy continue to grow moderately, that is, the average annual growth rate is between 4% and 7%? If China's economy can't bear the medium-speed growth, as long as the economic growth rate is lower than 8%, problems in all aspects will be exposed, contradictions will be sharpened, and the government will have to do everything possible to stimulate the economy, so that China's economy is actually suffering from "high growth disease". The Great Prosperity is followed by the Great Depression, and economic fluctuations will turn into economic cycles.
Third, policy recommendations.
After 25 years of rapid growth, China's economy has now reached a high-risk period. Controlling risks and resolving them in time should be the main purpose of China's macroeconomic policy.
First, gradually reduce the control bottom line of the economic growth target and allow the economic growth rate to decline to a certain extent. The first step is to reduce the "directional" target of economic growth to 7% and finally to 5%. China's enterprises and financial system should gradually adapt to medium-speed growth. At the same time, by lowering the "directional" goal of economic growth, various structural contradictions in China's economic system were gradually released to avoid appearing under the cover of high economic growth, and various structural contradictions were gradually accumulated, which eventually evolved into the Great Depression similar to 1929.
Second, we should take special precautions against risks in the financial system and the capital market, and establish a healthy and stable financial system as soon as possible.
Third, according to the proportion of assets in China's banking system, maintain a certain amount of foreign exchange reserves, such as 20% ~ 30%. International experience has proved that it is the last thing for the central bank to maintain sufficient foreign exchange reserves in the event of a financial crisis.