In the past month, the market has fully responded to the future hypothetical results. The price of the dollar has been falling, while the price of commodities has been rising in turn, and the global stock market has been on the rise. What investors need to verify next is whether the pace of the market reflects the strength of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy or overreacts to the market.
Bernanke should know that the global market is waiting for this decision, and any careless decision will lead to violent fluctuations in the financial market and the promises made by the US government at the G20 meeting, although it is probably only perfunctory.
The financial market in the United States seems to have stabilized and the profits of large companies are booming, which provides basic support for the rise of the stock market. Economists are optimistic that the economy is recovering, which is a mainstream tone. All this can be recognized by the elite, but the ruling Democratic Party is considering how much this will help the upcoming mid-term elections. To be exact, Democrats have actually realized that compared with the unemployment rate of 9.6%, the above halo is really nothing to mention. If the Obama administration fails to make progress on the unemployment rate and trade deficit, it will be abandoned by the middle and lower classes who hold the votes, and these people are the foundation of the Democratic Party.
Before the mid-term elections, new economic stimulus policies must be introduced. The traditional monetary control measure is to lower the federal benchmark interest rate. However, since the current benchmark interest rate is close to zero, there is no room. Unconventional means is that the Federal Reserve buys back long-term government bonds from the market, so as to reduce the long-term interest rate in the market, increase the money supply and guide the investment growth of enterprises and residents. There are various versions of the size of the Fed's repurchase in the market, and optimists estimate that it will reach 750 billion to 654.38+000 billion dollars.
Quantitative easing policy may increase domestic investment demand, devalue the dollar and make exports more competitive, but at the cost that the depreciation of the dollar will aggravate the global currency war and the United States may lose its leading position in global trade policy. In addition, quantitative easing may have a negative effect on the economy in some aspects. In particular, confidence in the depressed housing market in the United States may cause more harm. Over the past year, although the mortgage interest rate in the United States has been falling, even hitting the lowest level in recent decades, the more so, the less Americans are willing to enter the property market, because investors think that the interest rate will be lower in the future and fixed-rate mortgages may suffer losses. On the other hand, the practice of artificially raising bond prices in the United States to suppress long-term interest rates will lay a greater hidden danger for the future economy. Once the interest rate reverses in the future, the bond market will be terrible and bring new turmoil to the financial market.
Generally speaking, the market overreacted to the expectations of future policies some time ago, and it may be difficult for future policies to exceed the existing expectations of investors, which is reflected in the exchange rate of the US dollar, and there may be a great possibility of upward revision in the future. If so, global financial markets will also make corresponding revisions to reflect this latest change.
In fact, even if the US dollar index has not changed, there is a need for adjustment in the stock market and commodity market. The author believes that it is possible to adjust the Shanghai Composite Index for more than two weeks. The past week is basically in the process of adjustment, and it should continue next week. This week, the adjustment range of stock index futures is greater than the spot index, which shows the willingness of the market to actively adjust. The fluctuation of the stock market in the coming year is inevitable, but it will definitely be smaller than this year. But on the whole, it will be contrary to this year's trend (10. 3 1)。