The system takes all kinds of risks involved in the development and utilization of overseas oil and gas and solid mineral resources as the research object, realizes risk assessment and visual display in the process of development and utilization on the basis of various risk assessment models and systems, assists countries and enterprises to realize the "going out" strategy, and provides strategic decision-making basis for the development and utilization of overseas oil and gas and solid mineral resources. The system combines W ebGIS technology, risk assessment technology, database and data warehouse technology. Net.
The whole risk management system of foreign oil and gas and solid mineral resources development and utilization includes six functional modules: national risk, transportation risk, market risk, supply risk, demand risk and system maintenance (Figure 5. 1). Among them, five modules, namely country risk, transportation risk, market risk, supply risk and demand risk, provide the foreground display function, and the system maintenance module mainly provides the system management function.
Figure 5. 1 System Function Structure Diagram
The foreground display function of the system is oriented to ordinary public users. Aiming at the five risk modules, the relevant risk assessment levels and basic information of the assessed objects are displayed in various ways through visualization technology, which can provide users with intuitive and comprehensive risk assessment information, and then support users to make more effective risk decisions.
The system management function is oriented to administrators and users, providing related maintenance of index data, basic data, interface attributes and other data, modifying system parameters such as user permissions and passwords, and realizing data backup and recovery management (Zuo Meiyun et al., 2006), which provides relatively stable background support for foreign risk management systems for oil and gas and solid mineral development and utilization.
The whole system is based on B/S architecture. According to the characteristics and requirements of WebGIS system (Zhou, 2003), the above six functional modules are logically constructed into three layers: user service layer, business service layer and database service layer (Figure 5.2).
Figure 5.2 overall logical structure diagram of the system
Among them, the user service layer is the user interface that users browse in the terminal browser, which mainly provides the visual display function of national risk, transportation risk, market risk, supply risk, demand risk and other related risks, as well as the basic information display function of the evaluation object; Business service layer is a variety of Web service programs based on ASP.net framework, such as map server, model request server, etc., which is used for the server to process the user terminal's request. The database service layer stores and manages basic data such as spatial data, attribute data, evaluation index data, models and graphs, mines useful information, and responds to the connection and interaction requests of the service layer.
5.2. 1.2 country risk module
As the second largest oil consumer in the world, about 50% of China's oil imports come from the Middle East and Gulf regions where the political economy is unstable. Therefore, it is necessary to consider obtaining reliable oil resources and various risk factors closely related to oil and gas exporting countries. This module aims to build a national risk assessment index system and assessment model by comprehensively analyzing the sensitive political, economic and geographical risk information in various regions of the world, especially in oil and gas exporting countries, and present the final results to users at a glance, so as to provide scientific basis for users to choose them as oil import sources (Mao Xiaoling et al., 2003).
The national risk module is divided into two sub-modules: national risk visualization and national risk basic information, and its structure is shown in Figure 5.3.
(1) country risk visualization
The module includes three parts: energy security perspective, enterprise investment perspective and terrorist attack risk visualization. In addition to showing the comprehensive risks of countries in various regions of the world, especially those sensitive to oil and gas exports, GIS thematic maps are also used to visually show the political, economic and geopolitical risk levels of countries and regions.
(2) Basic information of country risks
This module includes basic national information, evaluation index system, risk factor analysis and risk evaluation results, and presents basic national risk information to users in a step-by-step manner.
Figure 5.3 National Risk Function Structure Diagram
5.2. 1.3 Market Risk Module
The oil market risk module aims to evaluate the comprehensive risk of the international oil market and analyze the risk trend of the international oil market; At the same time, real-time dynamic analysis of international oil price trends and oil price risks; Then, predict the oil market risk and provide decision support for oil enterprises and the government from a macro perspective.
The market risk module includes five sub-modules (Figure 5.4): oil market system risk assessment, international oil market price capture, international oil price forecast, oil market risk forecast and multi-dimensional oil price analysis. The systematic risk assessment of oil market regards the global oil market as a whole, evaluates the overall risk of oil market, and compares and analyzes the risks of previous assessments; The international oil market price capture model selects the oil price data regularly published by the US Department of Energy, The Wall Street Journal, China Petroleum Group and other websites as the object, and obtains real-time international oil price data in the form of online automatic capture for other risk modules to call and analyze; International oil price forecasting combines international oil price data and international oil price events to build a corresponding forecasting model to predict its price trend; Oil market risk prediction uses VaR method to predict oil and gas price risk in different periods; The multidimensional oil price analysis module analyzes the oil price according to the dimensions of oil market, oil products and price types, and derives the oil price data for further analysis.
Figure 5.4 Functional Structure Diagram of Market Risk Module
The market risk module involves the collection and application of a large number of basic data, including exchange rate, oil price, oil price time and so on. It also has interfaces with many modules, including international oil price forecasting, oil market risk forecasting, multidimensional oil price analysis and other model programs. The data acquisition and application methods of market risk module are varied, and the model interface processing methods are also varied, which leads to the complexity and importance of market risk module.
(1) systematic risk assessment of oil market
The function of oil market system risk assessment includes the management of basic data, oil market system risk assessment scheme and oil market assessment results (Figure 5.5). Among them, the basic data management of oil market includes information collection, classification, collation and display of international oil exchanges, oil market resources links, international oil price events and market data.
Figure 5.5 Functional Structure Diagram of Risk Assessment of Petroleum Market System
1) Basic data management.
A. international oil exchange. The international oil exchange provides information about the five largest oil exchanges in the world, including their brief introduction and geographical distribution. The main exchanges include the New York Mercantile Exchange, London International Petroleum Exchange, Tokyo Industrial Products Exchange, Singapore Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange.
B. oil market resource links. Oil market resource links provide abundant resources links related to oil market research on the Internet, as shown in Table 5. 1.
Table 5. 1 Oil Market Resource Links
C. international oil price events. International oil price events provide information about events that have occurred in the world and have a significant impact on oil prices, including news sources, event times, event types and event profiles. On the one hand, these events are directly queried by system users; On the other hand, it can be used as an influencing factor of oil price in international oil price forecasting and directly used by oil price forecasting model. Table 5.2 lists the typical sources of oil price events, and Table 5.3 lists the types of oil price events provided in the system.
Table 5.2 Sources of Oil Price Events
Table 5.3 Types of Oil Price Events
D. market data. Market data provides basic market data including foreign exchange rate, international oil price and multidimensional analysis of oil price.
Foreign exchange rate includes the following exchange rate data: US dollar composite index, spot exchange rate data of euro against US dollar, and exchange rate data of US dollar against ruble.
Oil prices include multiple oil trading markets, multiple oil varieties, multiple spot and futures price types and price units. See Table 5.4 for the range of data attributes.
Table 5.4 Relevant data of oil market
In addition, there are trading data from the Futures Commission of the United States (CFTC), which are used to evaluate the risk status of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) oil and gas trading system.
2) Evaluation scheme management.
Evaluation scheme management mainly manages the evaluation system and methods that affect the systemic risk of the oil market. The evaluation system includes the degree of speculation in the international oil futures market, exchange rate fluctuation of typical oil price settlement currencies, oil market demand risk and oil supply risk.
3) Risk assessment result management.
Risk assessment result management is the management of risk assessment results of the whole oil market system based on the index scheme. In order to compare and analyze the historical evaluation results, when users enter the evaluation results display page, the system automatically displays the historical evaluation results in the form of graphics, which is convenient for users to judge the trend of system risk in the international oil market and assist users in system risk assessment.
(2) online access to international oil price data
Online access to international oil price data is an important part of the market risk module. The main sources of international oil price data are the US Department of Energy and The Wall Street Journal, supplemented by the data from PetroChina's website. The capture of international oil price data is realized by task setting. Every time a task is performed, the program automatically links to the corresponding website, downloads oil price data, uploads it to the central database after cleaning and conversion, and records detailed capture logs.
(3) Oil market price forecast
Based on the basic oil price data and event data, the oil market price can be predicted for different markets, different oil products and different price types at different times and frequencies, and displayed in the form of intuitive trend charts. It is required to embed the market risk module in the form of ActiveX plug-in.
(4) Oil market risk prediction
The purpose of oil market risk prediction is to set different parameters based on a series of oil prices, and to predict the risk value of oil prices in different periods by using VaR calculation method.
The oil market risk prediction model belongs to a separately developed program module. Different from oil price forecasting, due to the complexity of risk calculation process, ActiveX is not embedded to integrate the model. The oil market risk model program runs independently, but the input and output data of the model interact with other models of the system. The model inputs the data obtained from the online capture module and converts it into standardized data, and the model running results are stored in the central database to save the model running results.
(5) Multidimensional analysis of oil price.
Oil price, as multidimensional data, has good characteristics of merging by dimensions, and can be analyzed in the form of multidimensional analysis. The dimensions used in the analysis include oil products, trading market, price type (spot, various futures contracts) and unit type. Oil prices are shown as two-dimensional tables, cascading tables, line charts, scale charts, radar charts, etc. , and the analysis results can be directly exported to Excel and other formats for further analysis.
5.2. 1.4 supply risk module
The functional structure of the supply risk module is shown in Figure 5.6, including four functions: basic information management, supply risk indicator system management, supply risk visualization and supply risk assessment result management.
(1) Basic information management
Basic information management mainly manages the basic data information needed for supply risk display.
(2) Supply risk index system management
The supply risk index system management module manages the supply risk index system from the aspects of global oil and gas resources reserves, exploration and development, production and inventory risks and other uncertain factors affecting overseas oil and gas supply. Supply risk indicator system management includes national supply risk indicator management and block supply risk indicator management, which manage supply risk indicators from national level and block level respectively.
Figure 5.6 Functional Structure Diagram of Supply Risk Module
National supply risk index management includes resource reserve uncertainty evaluation module, exploration and development risk evaluation module, production and inventory uncertainty evaluation module and other uncertainty evaluation modules that affect overseas oil and gas.
Block supply risk index management includes three small modules: resource reserve uncertainty evaluation, exploration and development risk evaluation and other uncertainty evaluations that affect overseas oil and gas.
(3) supply risk visualization
Supply risk visualization can display the supply risk in different regions intuitively through GIS technology.
(4) Management of supply risk assessment results
Supply risk assessment result management can perform a series of operations on supply risk assessment results, mainly to realize the input, query and maintenance of supply risk assessment results.
5.2. 1.5 Demand Risk Module
The functional structure of demand risk module is shown in Figure 5.7, including demand risk visualization, demand risk indicator system management, basic information management and demand risk assessment result management.
Figure 5.7 Functional Structure Diagram of Demand Risk Module
(1) demand risk visualization
Demand risk visualization shows the data and situations that need to be intuitively analyzed by GIS system, such as energy demand, oil demand, natural gas demand and demand structure.
(2) Demand risk index system management
The management of demand risk index system requires the management of various factors affecting demand risk. The management of demand risk index system includes four aspects: economic index evaluation, population index evaluation, policy index evaluation and technical index evaluation.
The evaluation of economic indicators considers the influence of economy on demand risk according to economic aggregate, economic growth rate, industrial structure and change rate of industrial structure.
Population index evaluation evaluates the impact of population on demand risk from two aspects: population size and natural population growth rate.
Policy index evaluation evaluates the impact of different policies in different countries from three aspects: climate policy, fiscal policy and technology policy.
Technical index evaluation evaluates technology from energy utilization efficiency, energy utilization efficiency change rate, energy structure, energy price, energy price change rate, energy substitution technology and so on.
(3) Basic information management
Basic information management mainly manages the basic data information needed for demand risk presentation.
(4) Management of demand risk assessment results
Demand risk assessment result management is a series of operations on demand risk assessment results, which mainly realizes the entry, query and maintenance of demand risk assessment results.
5.2. 1.6 transportation risk module
The functional structure of transportation risk module is shown in Figure 5.8, including four sub-modules: port risk management, route risk management, carrier risk management and pirate attack risk management.
Figure 5.8 Functional Structure Diagram of Transportation Risk
(1) Port risk management
Port risk management includes port index selection, port scheme evaluation and risk evaluation result management.
Port index selection management comprehensively considers port country, port throughput, port storage capacity, port safety capacity and maximum diameter of oil pipeline, establishes relevant index system, and adds, modifies and deletes it.
Port scheme evaluation management is to classify port risks by establishing risk index system and selecting evaluation methods.
Risk assessment result management is the management of the port risk assessment indicators and the results obtained from the assessment scheme. On the one hand, the results of port risk assessment are visualized by GIS technology, in which port icons with different colors represent port risk values and different sizes represent port throughput; On the other hand, the evaluation results can be exported and risk analysis reports can be provided.
(2) Route risk management
Route risk management includes route index selection, route scheme evaluation and risk evaluation result management.
The management of route index selection considers the accident rate of the route, the number of crossing risk nodes and the number of voyage nautical miles, establishes the relevant evaluation system, and adds, modifies and deletes it.
The evaluation management of route scheme is to manage route risks at different levels by establishing risk index system and selecting evaluation methods.
Risk assessment results are the management of route risk assessment indicators and the results obtained from the assessment scheme. On the one hand, the results of route risk assessment are visualized by GIS technology, in which route icons with different colors represent the risk value of the route and different thicknesses represent the capacity of the route; On the other hand, the evaluation results can be exported and risk analysis reports can be provided.
(3) Transportation risk management
Transportation risk management includes the selection of transportation indicators, the evaluation of transportation schemes and the management of risk evaluation results.
The selection and management of shipping indicators comprehensively consider the number of tankers, the average tonnage of tankers, the share of domestic tankers and the safety factor of shipping companies, establish relevant evaluation systems, and add, delete and modify them.
The evaluation management of transportation scheme is to manage transportation risks at different levels by establishing risk index system and selecting evaluation methods.
Risk assessment results are the management of route risk assessment indicators and the results obtained from the assessment scheme. On the one hand, GIS technology is used to visualize the risk assessment results of transportation; On the other hand, the evaluation results are obtained and risk analysis reports are provided.
(4) Pirate attack risk management
Piracy attack risk management includes the management of piracy attack data and risk results.
Pirate attack data management is to collect the number of pirate attacks in various pirate areas of the International Maritime Bureau every year, and add, modify and delete them.
Risk result management is based on the source of piracy attack data, and realizes the visual management of piracy attack distribution through GIS technology.
5.2. 1.7 system maintenance module
The system maintenance module mainly includes two sub-modules: risk assessment and system management.
(1) Risk Assessment Sub-module
The risk evaluation sub-module manages the evaluation scheme, evaluation method and evaluation results involved in the evaluation process for national risk, transportation risk, market risk, supply risk and demand risk (Figure 5.9).
Among them, the evaluation scheme management realizes the management of index data of different risk evaluation schemes, mainly including the modification and maintenance of existing evaluation schemes and the addition of evaluation schemes. Evaluation method management realizes the weight review and maintenance of existing evaluation indicators. In addition, the management of evaluation results also includes the maintenance and display of evaluation results.
(2) System management sub-module
The system management sub-module includes data and model management and system operation management (Figure 5. 10). Data and model management, using computers and various development tools to grab, extract, store, process and apply the system data, as well as data model design, data guidance, data operation and data export. System operation management is responsible for the normal operation and maintenance of the system, including the management of operation logs, system parameters and permission settings.
Figure 5.9 Functional Structure of Risk Assessment
Figure 5. 10 System Management Function Structure Diagram
1) data and model management.
The data and model management module includes basic data management, oil price data management and gallery management, and each management module includes several subdivision sub-functions (Figure 5. 1 1).
Figure 5. 1 1 data and model management
Basic data management realizes the maintenance of basic attribute values of various objects involved in risk query, including basic data entry and basic data maintenance. The oil price data management module realizes the dynamic capture of the data from the US Department of Energy, PetroChina and the Wall Street Journal, and uploads them to the central database after cleaning and conversion, and at the same time realizes the webpage extraction of oil price events. Gallery management is mainly to realize the centralized management of all the pictures in the system, including the maintenance of existing pictures and new pictures.
2) System operation management.
The management functions of system operation include system parameter management, system authority management, log management and system load statistics management. Among them, the management of system logs includes the management of operation logs, oil price processing logs and model operation logs (Figure 5.5438+02).
System parameter management sets system-related parameters, including setting data capture failure threshold, setting data capture interval and setting data storage path.
Figure 5. 12 System Operation Management
The management of system permissions is the management of permissions before and after users log in to the system (Evan Tsui et al., 2005).
The purpose of system log management is to facilitate the error detection of related problems in the future, including the management of operation log, oil price processing log and model operation log.
The load statistics management of the system is responsible for counting the number of users' visits to one or some modules in a certain period of time.