The shortcomings of the Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs in this round of shorting gold are too obvious. Of course they all have wishes and needs.

For the Federal Reserve, gold is the natural enemy of the U.S. dollar. If you want the U.S. dollar to continue to be confidently at the core of the world monetary system, there are two ways:

1. The U.S. economy Stronger, with dual fiscal and trade surpluses, but this requires Americans to create more wealth than they need. For the United States, where 5% of the population enjoys 25% of the world's resources, this is too difficult;

< p>2, weaken the opponent of the US dollar, or use its military and monetary hegemony to loot more wealth from the opponent. These opponents include but are not limited to the euro, RMB and gold. In the arena of banknotes, the U.S. dollar was originally the dominant player. Later, the Euro and the RMB jumped onto the stage to challenge it. Their contest required gold as the referee. This is the fundamental reason why the gold bull market has continued to develop over the past 12 years.

Of course the U.S. dollar doesn’t like the euro and the renminbi, but it hates gold even more. As long as the US dollar can extricate itself from the competition between the euro and the renminbi, it will definitely beat gold. Now is the time. China's problems have become difficult to recover from. The outbreak of the economic and financial crisis has become the common knowledge of international investors, and they have no ability to challenge the US dollar in the short term. After the Cyprus incident, the euro is also in its own difficulties and pounces everywhere. Fire, a passive defensive state, also lost the ability to defend against the dollar. That is to say, in the paper currency arena, both the euro and the renminbi are on the defensive, and the US dollar can concentrate on attacking gold.

For the main short sellers, there is almost no risk in shorting gold when they get key policy information from the Federal Reserve in advance. Short selling itself can not only make huge profits, but more importantly, Goldman Sachs can take the opportunity to become the main force in the gold market and directly control the market. Just like they call the shots in the oil market, it is well known that Goldman Sachs is one of the major bookmakers in the international oil market.

For financial oligarchs, if by suppressing the price of gold, investors lose confidence in gold and then panic sell, then this is also a good opportunity for them to replenish their gold positions at a low price.

Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England lent gold to international savings banks such as JPMorgan Chase, HSBC and Deutsche Bank, allowing the latter to establish short positions in the futures market. Gold is being sold on the spot market to hit gold prices. What the Fed gets is to control the price of gold, and the gold banks make profits. If the price of gold goes down, the physical gold will be bought back at a low price. If it cannot be bought back, it will be bought back from the gold mine at a lower price agreed in advance.

However, this model has failed as the price of gold has risen, especially after it rose above US$1,000. The Federal Reserve and gold reserve banks have lost a large amount of physical gold. When the price of gold rises to 1,800-1,900 US dollars, it cannot but trigger a huge panic among them. Therefore, once the U.S. economy begins to recover and the U.S. dollar regains its strength, and U.S. financial institutions have emerged from the depletion of funds after the financial crisis and are now flush with cash, they are bound to suppress the price of gold and then replenish gold at a lower price. in stock.

Although they have successfully suppressed the price of gold in the past week, this is quite likely to be a farce of shooting themselves in the foot. Because although gold prices plummeted, investors in China and India not only did not panic, but were overjoyed. In Nanjing, China, all physical gold in the city was sold within one day; in India, the plummeting gold prices also triggered a buying frenzy. This pushed gold prices to a maximum rebound of $102 in the following four trading days.

Although short sellers made cash, Chinese and Indian consumers bought physical gold. This will put manipulators in a dilemma - should they continue to suppress gold prices until consumers in China and India are so panicked that they no longer dare to buy? Or should we stop in the gold market first, plunge China and India into the abyss of financial crisis, and then short gold?

At present, although it is still possible to continue to suppress gold prices, the space below is already quite limited, not to mention technical support. US$1,150-1,300 is the current cost price of gold. If the price of gold falls below this level, global gold mines will reduce production to support this price.

From the perspective of currency competition, I have always believed that unless the euro disintegrates and the renminbi collapses, and gold completely loses its status as a referee in paper currency competition, it will be difficult for the gold price to fall below $1,000.

This problem of becoming a manipulator, for gold investors in China and India, it would be good to adopt the "turtle tactic" next - just like hiding in a turtle shell, the Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs When suppressing the price of gold, avoid the futures market that is directly bombarded by them and avoid being directly sacrificed. If the price of gold is hit very low and dazzles before your eyes, just swallow a piece of it calmly.

With this gold, even if China and India encounter a huge financial crisis, they will not be afraid of breaking away from the international monetary system. We can rely on this gold to establish a new currency system that is more independent and more reasonable.

In the 5,000-year history of the Chinese nation, for most of the time, there was no country called the United States on the earth. The Chinese people still lived well, and gold was always with them.