Current location - Trademark Inquiry Complete Network - Futures platform - Futures arbitrage cycle
Futures arbitrage cycle
On the evening of 15, the CSRC approved Zhengshang Institute to conduct peanut futures trading, and the listing time was February 1 day, and the domestic oil market was full of joy. Peanut, as an important oil crop in China, has entered thousands of households. Its listing can not only help upstream and downstream get out of the current chaotic pricing state, but also provide a powerful risk management tool for enterprises and farmers. So how much do you know about peanuts and the industry stories behind them?

"The listing of peanut futures can help farmers and related enterprises achieve stable operation and guide the transformation and upgrading of peanut industry; On the other hand, the listing of peanut futures can expand the scale of agricultural futures and help expand the futures market to serve the real economy. " The relevant person in charge of Zhengshang Institute said.

China is the largest peanut producer in the world, ranking first in planting area and output. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20 19, the total output of peanuts in China was 12 150000 tons, and the total output value was about 9165438+300 million yuan. Due to the high yield of peanut planting, the planting area and yield of peanut in China have shown a steady upward trend in recent years, and peanut planting has become an important source of income for most farmers in the main producing areas.

Peanut is a completely market-oriented variety. Since 20 14, the domestic peanut price has fluctuated, and farmers and industrial operators are facing greater price risks, which urgently require price risk management tools. In addition, peanut, as an important oil crop in China, has important strategic significance for ensuring the oil safety in China. In the face of frequent price fluctuations, there is also an urgent need for financial instruments to manage price risks and stabilize production and operation.

"The listing of peanut futures is not only in line with the national policy of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers, but also conducive to implementing the national strategic policy of ensuring the safety of oil supply, which is of positive significance to the peanut industry." The relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange introduced to the reporter of Grain and Oil Market.

China is a big producer and exporter of peanuts.

I am a humble person. However, when I walked and ate peanuts with four coppers in my pocket, I began to feel more proud than Qin Shihuang. If someone asks me, "If you are the emperor, how can you enjoy it?" I replied without thinking: "Send four ministers to get two-dollar copper coins and buy as many peanuts as you want!" " "The description of peanuts in this passage comes from Mr. Lao She's essay Peanuts, which compares eating peanuts casually to the enjoyment of the emperor.

Peanut is an important cash crop and oil crop in China, also known as "groundnut" or "longevity fruit". Among the main oil crops in China, peanut planting area ranks third, second only to soybean and rape. Relevant data show that in 2020, China's peanut planting area is 6.9 million mu, accounting for 18.36% of the total planting area of the five major oil crops in China. China is the largest peanut producer in the world, ranking first in planting area and output. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20 19, the total output of peanuts in China was 12 150000 tons, and the total output value was about 9165438+300 million yuan. Due to the high yield of peanut planting, the planting area and yield of peanut in China have shown a steady upward trend in recent years, and peanut planting has become an important source of income for most farmers in the main producing areas.

Peanut planting is widely distributed in China, and it is planted all over the country except Tibet, Qinghai and Hong Kong. However, there are significant differences in factors endowment, technical level, infrastructure and industrial policies of peanut production in different provinces. Affected by the above factors, China's peanut production pattern is constantly changing, and the corresponding advantageous regions and industrial belts have not yet formed. At present, peanut planting in China is mainly distributed in Central China, East China, South China and North China. Specific to the provinces, concentrated in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangxi, Liaoning, Sichuan, Hubei, Guangdong and Fujian. Among them, Henan and Shandong are the two largest peanut growing provinces in China, accounting for 26.04% and 15.05% respectively.

Henan and Shandong are the two provinces with the largest peanut production in China. Peanut planting in China is mainly concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai, Yangtze River valley and Northeast China, and mainly distributed in Henan, Shandong, Jilin, Hebei, Guangdong, Hubei, Liaoning, Anhui, Sichuan, Guangxi and other provinces. The total output of peanuts in the above 10 provinces accounts for more than 90% of the national total output.

From the perspective of provinces, Henan and Shandong are the top two provinces in peanut production in China. According to the data of National Cereals and Oils Information Center, the peanut output of these two provinces in 20 19 was 37 1 10,000 tons and 2.2 million tons respectively, accounting for 48.7% of the national total.

According to reports, China is a big producer and exporter of peanuts, and the importing countries are mainly concentrated in Africa. In recent years, the international price of peanuts is much lower than that of China, and the import of peanuts has continued to rise. From June to July, 2020, the total import volume of peanuts reached 622,900 tons, far exceeding the import level in previous years, among which imports from Senegal and Sudan accounted for 87%. Exports are concentrated in Europe and Japan, with an annual output of about100000 tons. Affected by the increasing price and planting income of peanuts, peanut production has shown three characteristics in recent years: the planting area is slowly increasing, the yield level is constantly improving, and the total output is constantly increasing.

"With economic development and social progress, China's peanut consumption will show the following trends: First, with the improvement of residents' living standards and urbanization level, peanut consumption demand will increase; Second, with the gradual improvement of residents' requirements for food safety and green health standards, the requirements for peanut quality will become more and more stringent. " A person who has been studying the peanut market for a long time pointed out.

Small peanuts set off a big industry.

China's peanut industry market is fully competitive, with a large number of related enterprises, less policy intervention and a high degree of marketization. There are a large number of peanut processing enterprises in China. There are dozens of large peanut processing enterprises in almost every county in Shandong and Henan peanut key producing areas, and there are countless small self-employed households.

However, while the peanut industry in China is developing rapidly, it is also facing some problems, such as "big but not strong, many but not excellent, short industrial chain and weak competitiveness".

Zhengyang County, Zhumadian City, Henan Province has been the largest peanut planting county for more than 20 years, planting peanuts/kloc-0.7 million mu all the year round, with an annual output of more than 500,000 tons. It has the reputation that "the world peanuts look at China and China peanuts look at Zhengyang". In recent years, Zhengyang county regards the development of peanut industry as an important content of deepening the structural reform of agricultural supply side, vigorously expands the planting scale and strengthens deep processing, and forms a full-chain industrial cluster integrating R&D, production, processing and international and domestic trade.

Zhang, an expert of Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, who "inserted scientific and technological wings into peanut production", cultivated a series of peanut varieties such as Yuanza 9 102 and Yuanza 9307 in just a few years with sincere heart, which not only effectively solved the soil problem, but also made up for the shortcomings of the traditional variety Xiaobaisha, and achieved Zhengyang peanut.

Nowadays, relying on this "very useful" quality, Zhengyang County has turned small peanuts into a big industry: using peanut stalks and shells to produce feed and grow edible fungi has driven many poor households in the county out of poverty and become rich; Junlebao, Lu Hua, Arowana and other dairy products and edible oil enterprises have invested billions of yuan to set up factories in Zhengyang.

Walking into the peanut e-commerce service center in Zhengyang County, you will find that there are four functional areas: e-commerce O2O exhibition hall, e-commerce reception, e-commerce service and e-commerce training.

Aiming at the "double innovation" group in peanut industry, the "one body and two wings" incubation model (technology incubation+investment and financing+supporting services in the park) is the core, supporting government support and resource docking, and providing "one-stop" services for office and life in the fields of people's livelihood, culture, education, public services and industry. Zhengyang peanut culture exhibition center is the first exhibition center with peanut as the theme in China. The total area of the exhibition hall is 2000 square meters. The exhibition is based on the historical development of peanuts and Zhengyang. It is divided into preface hall, peanut hall, zhengyang hall, central planning hall, peanut town hall, intelligent agriculture hall and tail hall. The inspection and testing center was established in September of 20 18, with a construction area of 1000 square meters and an investment of150,000 yuan. The detection items include routine physical and chemical detection, microbial detection, metal and pollutant detection, aflatoxin detection, pesticide residue detection and labeling.

"Zhengyang International Peanut Industrial Park, which integrates peanut processing, futures delivery, peanut testing and peanut trading, is also the only national modern agricultural industrial park in China with peanuts as the leading industry." Liu Yanli, vice chairman of Zhumadian CPPCC and secretary of Zhengyang County Party Committee, said that at present, all the quotations of more than 2,000 peanut enterprises come from Zhengyang, forming the price center of Zhengyang peanuts, and the newly established Zhengyang Bohai Peanut Trading Center further demonstrates the influence of Zhengyang peanuts. In the next step, Zhengyang will also build a dream factory, a cultural park, a sightseeing park and a museum with the theme of peanut industry to build an all-round peanut industrial chain.

In Maoji Town, Tongbai County, Henan Province, Guo, secretary of the Party branch of Maozhai Village, told the reporter happily: "In the past, the price of peanuts was not guaranteed, and we had no bottom in our hearts. With peanut futures in the future, we want to eat' reassuring pills' and plant peanuts with more confidence. " Maoji Town is a traditional peanut planting area, where the common people grow peanuts, with a total area of 6.5438+0.7 million mu all the year round. The reporter walked into a farmer's home and saw more than 100 bags of peanuts piled on the ground. When the reporter asked the farmers when to sell them, the farmers expressed their feelings: "I want to wait until the price is higher." "The peanut planting area in Tongbai County is basically stable at around 340,000 mu. Based on the advantages of peanut planting, Tongbai County fully tapped the role of peanuts as "source of living water", and peanuts became the main crop to increase farmers' income. Peanut planting has always helped the county get rid of poverty. " Wang Leyan, member of the Standing Committee of Tongbai County Committee and deputy county magistrate, said.

The reporter learned in the interview that China's peanut industry chain is mainly divided into three links, namely, upstream planting, midstream trade processing, downstream sales and terminal consumption.

The main body in the upper reaches of the peanut industrial chain consists of peanut growers and agricultural cooperatives, mainly engaged in peanut planting, harvesting and drying. The upstream of peanut industrial chain determines the quantity and quality of peanut supply.

The main bodies in the middle reaches of the peanut industry chain mainly include many peanut traders, peanut processing enterprises and peanut export enterprises. Because the entry threshold of peanut sorting trade is not high, it is mainly small and medium-sized traders, who sort peanuts and then sell them to large and medium-sized peanut processing enterprises or export enterprises.

The downstream main body of peanut industrial chain is mainly composed of dealers, supermarkets, e-commerce, wholesale markets, farmers' markets and end consumers, and is responsible for the marketing of peanut products. At present, domestic peanut processing enterprises generally enter supermarkets, wholesale markets and farmers' markets through distributors in addition to selling their own products.

The market expects peanut futures.

In 20 19, the national peanut output was about12150,000 tons, with an output value of about 9 10 billion yuan, and the spot size of peanuts was relatively large. According to the requirements of peanut futures delivery and bottom-up test data, the qualified rate of peanuts that meet the requirements of futures delivery in natural circulation is 76%, corresponding to the spot scale of 9.23 million tons and the output value of 69.23 billion yuan, which is sufficient to meet the requirements of futures delivery.

"The storage, processing and logistics system in the peanut spot market is perfect, the infrastructure is developed, there are many enterprises participating in the market, and the transactions are active, which has laid a good spot customer base for futures trading and created convenient conditions for physical delivery in the futures market." The relevant person in charge of Zhengshang Institute pointed out.

It is understood that peanut futures is a new attempt by Zheng Shang to serve the real economy, and it is also an important measure for Zheng Shang to carry out market innovation. Peanut, as one of the main cash crops, is widely used and plays an important role in oil extraction and food processing industry. On the one hand, the listing of peanut futures can help farmers and related enterprises achieve stable operation and guide the transformation and upgrading of peanut industry; On the other hand, the listing of peanut futures can expand the scale of agricultural products futures, which is conducive to expanding the field of futures market serving the real economy.

The spot quotation of peanuts is discontinuous, with long time interval, low frequency and poor price sensitivity. In addition, the spot price of peanuts is based on the price formed by previous transactions, which can not reflect the future market supply and demand situation and price trend, and has a weak guiding role in future production, and is prone to "cobweb effect". Since 2006, peanuts have experienced two remarkable ups and downs, and the "cobweb effect" between price and yield is remarkable, which has brought great risks and losses to farmers and enterprises.

Price risk is an unavoidable topic for employees in peanut industry. In Zhengyang County, a manager Zhang who has been engaged in peanut trade for many years told reporters that the price of peanuts is changeable. Sometimes the price will be quoted three times a day from morning till night. 4 yuan/kg in the morning, 4.5 yuan/kg at noon and 5 yuan/kg at night are unpredictable. It is understood that he buys 600 tons of peanuts for large peanut processing enterprises every day, which can reach 200,000 tons a year, and bears great price risks.

"Financial instruments are playing an increasingly important role in helping entities manage risks, and the listing of peanut futures is bound to accelerate the integration of the industry. Under the new situation, enterprises should fully understand the two functions of price discovery and hedging in the futures market, hoping that the futures market can help enterprises use peanut futures for enterprise risk management, thus helping enterprises accurately grasp the future development direction of the industry. " Liu, deputy head of Zhengyang County, said.

In Zhengyang County, the planned and soon-to-be-built Zhengyang Antique Commercial Street covers a total area of 72.5 mu with a total investment of about 500 million yuan. The project planning includes the National Studies Culture Park, the Peanut Boutique Hotel, the Peanut Food Culture Innovation Park and the Antique Peanut Commercial Street in Donglou Road. It is a large-scale commercial complex integrating national wind research, peanut food culture innovation park, boutique hotel, ancient street B&B, special catering and smart agricultural trade.

Li, chairman of Zhengyang Xindi Peanut Group, said with confidence: "After the completion of the Peanut World Project, the vision of" Trinity "and" Three Industrial Convergence "and the plan of" 100 million "revenue multiplication will be finally realized. When talking about the upcoming peanut futures, Li Guanghai immediately said that enterprises must actively participate. After participating in the futures market, they can use the hedging function of futures to solve the risk of peanut planting. With the guarantee of this financial tool, the company's industrial chain will be more perfect.

Some industry authorities believe that financial instruments are playing an increasingly important role in helping entities to carry out risk management, and the listing of peanut futures in the future will inevitably accelerate the integration of the industry. In addition, the listing of peanut futures is a good thing for the stable development of China's peanut industry. On the one hand, the upstream growers can reasonably adjust the planting structure according to the futures price and control the peanut sales rhythm. Intermediate traders and downstream crushing enterprises, while reducing purchasing costs and locking in sales profits through futures tools, have also increased a spot purchase and sale channel. On the other hand, it can lead the transformation and upgrading of agriculture, and realize price fluctuation risk management and spot purchase and sale guarantee through order agriculture and basis purchase.

Tao Qiu, general manager of Yuxin Investment, said that after the listing of peanut futures, with the further development of spot business, the development of peanut warehouse receipt business will make spot peanuts have strong financial attributes, and can carry out warehouse receipt related business well, which not only ensures the spot price risk management, but also increases the purchase and sale channels, so that enterprises can revitalize spot assets and increase financing channels. After peanut futures are listed, traders can manage the price fluctuation risk in the spot market through the hedging, pricing and arbitrage functions of peanut futures. Moreover, the modes of "insurance+futures", "futures+orders" and "insurance+options" widely developed in other agricultural fields can also enrich the ways and means of hedging risks for peanut enterprises.

"Peanut futures is a new attempt by Zhengshang to serve the real economy, and it is also an important measure for Zhengshang to carry out market innovation. Peanut, as one of the main cash crops, is widely used and plays an important role in oil extraction and food processing industry. On the one hand, the listing of peanut futures can help farmers and related enterprises achieve stable operation and guide the transformation and upgrading of peanut industry; On the other hand, the listing of peanut futures can expand the scale of agricultural futures and help expand the futures market to serve the real economy. " The relevant person in charge of Zhengshang Institute finally said.