At the beginning of the year, silver futures guided by retail investors soared in the US financial market. The main reason is that the price of silver has been suppressed and underestimated for a long time, but without the support of a lot of dollars, retail investors can't push the price of silver up. After that, the prices of various non-ferrous metals rose to varying degrees, and the bull market of commodities under inflation began to show its edge. As one of the main industrial metals, copper will have a very strong performance in this round of commodity bull market.
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Main influencing factors of copper price:
1. Relationship between supply and demand: According to microeconomics, when the supply of a commodity exceeds demand, its price will fall, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease. This basic principle fully reflects the internal relationship between price and supply and demand.
2. Macroeconomics: Copper is an important industrial basic raw material, and its demand change is closely related to economic growth. When the economy grows, the demand for copper increases, thus pushing up the price of copper. When the economy is depressed, the demand for copper shrinks, which pushes the price of copper down.
3. Import and export policy: import and export policy, especially tariff policy, is an important means to control the import and export volume of a commodity and balance the domestic supply and demand by adjusting the import and export cost of commodities. At present, the import tariff of copper raw materials in China is 2%, and the export tariff is 5%.
4. Trading direction of funds: Although the fund industry has a long history, it did not flourish until the 1990s. At the same time, the fund's participation in commodity futures trading has also greatly improved. Judging from the evolution of the copper market in the last decade, funds have played a role in fueling many big markets.
5. Exchange rate fluctuation: copper is a highly liquid commodity, and in international trade, under normal circumstances, the change of the exchange rate of the local currency of non-US dollar countries against the US dollar will directly affect the cost and profit of copper trade, which will lead to the change of trade activities and the change of supply and demand, which will lead to the fluctuation of copper prices.
6. Related commodity price fluctuations Crude oil and copper are important international industrial raw materials, and whether their demand is strong or not can best reflect the quality of the economy. Therefore, in the long run, the prices of crude oil and spot copper have a good correlation with the speed of economic development. Because both crude oil and copper are closely related to the macro-economy, there is a positive correlation between spot copper price and oil price to some extent. However, this is only in line with the long-term trend. In the short term, the positive correlation between crude oil price and spot copper price is not very prominent.