According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, by the end of April, there were 417700 sows in China, which was 0.2% lower than that of 418500 in March and decreased for six consecutive months.
At the same time, in April 2022, the number of live pigs in China decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decrease since June 20021year. It can be seen that the rebound of live pig prices is the transformation of aquaculture from "below cost level" to "return to cost line", rather than the trend increase caused by insufficient production capacity, so everyone should have a plan in mind.
Recently, after a month's rapid rise, pig futures suddenly changed face in May 17. The main contract LH 2209 199 15 yuan/ton opened in May, hitting a new high since June 20021ton, but then fell sharply in intraday trading.
This shows that although the pig price has obviously rebounded with the help of factors such as the pressure of farmers, the peak productivity of fertile sows and the continuous purchasing and storage of the country, the pig production capacity is still sufficient as a whole due to the slow improvement of the terminal pork consumption demand, and the road to pig price recovery may be full of twists and turns.
According to the analysis of insiders, the profit of domestic pigs has been restored to a great extent, and the high price of piglets has also led to the reduction of replacement and elimination of reserve sows. It is expected that the stock of fertile sows will pick up in May, and the trend of domestic pig de-capacity will end in stages, which indicates that it is difficult for pig prices to rise to too high a level. However, with the domestic pig price rising to a "new high", the market resistance is gradually increasing, and there is still a risk of falling back.
One is that the overall supply of live pigs in the market will continue to be loose, especially the increase in secondary fattening, which will lead to an increase in the number of standard pigs in the market and the weight of live pigs. The other is that the domestic feed cost is still high, and it is difficult for the breeding end to continue to press the bar. As pigs become profitable one after another, the mood at the breeding end is getting stronger, and the mood of large pig enterprises fleeing at high prices may intensify; The last one is that with the arrival of the midsummer season, the market demand for fat pork is poor, and the consumption constraints may become more and more fierce. However, due to the influence of high temperature and high humidity at the breeding end, pig farm diseases may increase and slaughter panic will increase.
Therefore, based on the game in many aspects of the market, the pig price will still return to the market fundamentals. It is expected that there may be signs of a shock callback in the short term. For the subsequent upward trend, only the consumer market in the third and fourth quarters will usher in new changes.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose 1 and fell 18, and the stable areas accounted for 69% of all the monitoring. The pig market as a whole shows a trend of "rising steadily".
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase pigs, and there is obvious resistance to the procurement of high-priced pig sources. The wholesale market is obviously restricted, and there is a certain' bad market' in South China, and the pig price of local pig enterprises has declined.
The market sentiment is general, and some enterprises still have obvious price-cutting sentiment.
The pig price of breeding group has been lowered, while the increase of pig price of pig enterprises has been obviously weakened. The pig market of the leading group has been lowered, and the price of pigs in key areas has dropped to a certain extent, which makes it difficult for high-priced pig sources to move goods.
The appearance price of white striped pigs in northern slaughter enterprises stabilized and the delivery speed was weak.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a "stable and moderate shock" trend tomorrow, and some areas will show a "downward" trend under the background of slaughtering enterprises' price reduction.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share. I believe that after all kinds of hardships, you will be thoroughly remoulded.