(II) Analysis of the impact of the epidemic on key global industrial chains and related import and export industries in China.
1. The epidemic situation affects the international demand for oil, natural gas and other energy sources, and the downward trend of oil prices is conducive to reducing costs downstream of the industrial chain.
(1) Under the influence of the epidemic situation and the oil price war in Saudi Arabia and Russia, the international oil price went down, and the cost of enterprises in the downstream of the industrial chain decreased.
Recently, both supply and demand in the oil market are bearish, and international oil prices have fallen sharply. In terms of upstream supply, Russia rejected the proposal of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to further deepen production reduction, Saudi Arabia announced oil production increase and price reduction, and the global oil supply is expected to increase significantly; In terms of downstream demand, on the basis of the slow growth of the world economy and the depressed oil demand, and the COVID-19 epidemic has deepened the downward expectation of the world economy, the oil demand continues to be under pressure. On March 9, the international oil price plummeted, and on June 6, it fell below $30 per barrel, 65,438. In the middle reaches of transportation, the freight rate of crude oil continues to rise with the sharp drop in oil prices. As of 13, the Middle East-Ningbo freight index rose by 90 points in three days. At the same time, as an important commodity, oil prices affect global financial markets, global stock markets fluctuate, and multinational stock markets trigger the fuse mechanism.
From the impact on enterprises in China, oil is one of the important energy sources for economic development, and the reduction of import costs is conducive to reducing enterprise costs and economic recovery. First, it is beneficial to refining and chemical enterprises, benefiting from the pricing mechanism of "40 dollars below the floor price" of refined oil in China, and the price decline of products is less than that of raw materials; The second is to benefit transportation and logistics enterprises. The decline in crude oil prices has reduced fuel prices and brought direct benefits to the transportation and logistics industry hit hard by the epidemic; Third, it is good for oil and gas transportation enterprises, and oil and gas transportation shipowners benefit from the increase of business volume and the reduction of fuel costs. In addition, China, as the largest oil and gas importer in the world, is expected to increase its crude oil imports and enhance its oil and gas reserves in the future.
(2) The epidemic situation affects natural gas consumption, and the drop in oil prices tests the economy of natural gas.
Judging from the existing impact, the global natural gas market has been oversupplied before the outbreak, and the emergence of the epidemic has further aggravated the weakness of natural gas consumption. Natural gas consumption is highly related to oil prices, and the competitive fields are transportation fuels and industrial fuels. Low oil prices will test the economy of natural gas.
Judging from the future impact, the COVID-19 epidemic also mainly affects the demand side of the natural gas market. If the global epidemic situation is effectively controlled in the second quarter, it will have a certain negative impact on the global economy in the short term, and the demand will decline; If the epidemic continues to develop and even spreads across years, the demand for natural gas will drop sharply in the context of global economic recession and even economic crisis. First, the closure of enterprises will lead to a sharp decline in industrial sales; Second, restricting the gathering of people will lead to the reduction of gas consumption of commercial users such as restaurants, hotels and baths; Third, buses and taxis stopped running, transportation decreased, and the start of logistics enterprises was delayed, which led to a sharp drop in the demand for vehicle gas.
Judging from the impact on Chinese enterprises, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is superimposed on the substitution effect of the downward adjustment of oil prices on natural gas, and the growth rate of natural gas consumption in downstream industries, power generation, chemical industry and commercial users will decline. Before the outbreak, many research institutions such as PetroChina predicted that the growth rate of apparent natural gas consumption would further slow down to 7.6% in 2020. Combined with the epidemic situation and the influence of oil price, it is predicted that the apparent growth rate of natural gas consumption in China will drop to about 6% in 2020. Natural gas production, import and urban gas enterprises will all be affected.
2. The internal and external demand of the steel industry is greatly affected by the epidemic, and nonferrous metals and iron ores fluctuate slightly.
(1) The spread of the epidemic has impacted the steel supply and demand in some countries.
According to the data of World Iron and Steel Association, in 20 19, Japan's crude steel output was the third in the world (99.3 million tons) and the sixth in South Korea (710.4 million tons). Southeast Asia is an emerging market for global steel production. Up to now, Europe, South Korea, Japan, India, Southeast Asia and other countries have little impact on the steel industry due to the epidemic situation, but if the epidemic situation is not well controlled, it may have an impact on future production. Regionally, the EU is a net importer of steel. In recent years, the net import of steel ingots, plates and talents is on the rise, and the competitiveness of products in the region is declining. Once the downstream demand decreases, it is difficult for local steel enterprises to compete with foreign steel products, and it is also difficult to relieve the pressure of falling domestic demand by replacing imports. The export of Japanese steel enterprises accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction of domestic steel demand will push the supply to shrink slightly, which will bring greater pressure to Japan's domestic economy and consumption. Korean steel enterprises have strong competitiveness. In recent years, the proportion of domestic steel exports has continued to rise, and the import of some products has continued to decline. The decline in domestic demand in South Korea will drive steel enterprises to increase exports and replace imports. India and Southeast Asia as a whole are less affected by the epidemic.
As of March 9, the total inventory of sample warehouses in 35 major markets nationwide was 25,369,800 tons, with a weekly increase of 6.54%. Compared with historical data, the current inventory growth cycle is not over, and it is expected that the inventory inflection point will not appear soon. If the spread of overseas epidemic exceeds expectations, global economic growth will be greatly dragged down. The export pressure of steel products in China will be mainly manifested in the indirect export of steel products, such as ships, containers, automobiles, household appliances and other mechanical and electrical products that consume more steel products will be affected. In 20 19, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China accounted for 58.4% of the total export value. The export restrictions of mechanical and electrical products put great pressure on the total consumption of steel products in China.
For the direct export of domestic steel products, there is not much room for weakening. The reason is that in recent years, due to the rise of trade protectionism, China's steel exports have been greatly reduced. According to customs statistics, from 2065438 to 2009, the country exported 64.293 million tons of steel, down 7.3% year-on-year. Even if it is hit by the epidemic, the impact on the balance between supply and demand of steel is limited. However, it should be noted that in terms of export areas, China's top two trading partners in 20 19 were the European Union and ASEAN, and their exports increased by 8% and 14. 1% respectively over the previous year. As the fourth largest trading partner, Japan's import and export volume also increased by 0.4%. At present, the epidemic is mainly spreading in the above areas, and the pressure of steel export is still there in the future. In addition, the decrease in downstream demand and the increase in steel inventory will lead to a decline in steel prices. At this stage, the operating risk of the steel industry will continue to rise, and the operating conditions of steel trade and small and medium-sized steel enterprises need to be concerned.
(2) The price expectation of nonferrous metals has been partially fulfilled, and the inflection point of domestic inventory has not yet arrived.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the prices of non-ferrous metals in the international and domestic markets have fallen rapidly due to market risk aversion and concerns about post-holiday demand recovery. Take copper for example. During the Spring Festival, the copper price dropped from $6,200/ton to $5,500/ton. After the holiday, due to the strong domestic epidemic prevention and control efforts, the market is expected to pick up, and copper prices rebounded slightly. However, in mid-February, the overseas epidemic broke out gradually, and the price war in March triggered a sharp drop in crude oil. Concerns about the global economic recession have led to a new round of decline in copper prices. In the medium and long term, the main logic of supply and demand and price changes in various non-ferrous metal markets will still return to the fundamental and macro background. Comprehensive judgment, the whole year, copper prices will continue to maintain an upward trend after the epidemic period, and it is expected that gold prices will not maintain an upward trend after short-term shocks. There is a certain surplus in the supply of aluminum, lead and zinc industries. Under the impact of the epidemic, the downward trend of price center of gravity is expected to be more obvious.
Judging from the current situation, major non-ferrous metal mining areas such as South America, Southeast Asia and Australia have not yet experienced serious epidemics, and mine production is relatively stable. Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States have relatively intensive smelting and processing capabilities. Although the epidemic situation in some countries is serious at present, the normal production activities have not been obviously disturbed and the supply is relatively stable. However, the spread of overseas epidemic is also uncertain, and traffic restrictions in some areas will interfere with the trade chain of the industry. In the global industrial chain of nonferrous metals, China plays an important role as a consumer country, and its varieties account for about 40%-60% of global metal consumption.
China's mineral resources are relatively poor, but the smelting capacity is huge, and most of the metal resources are in a state of net import. The matching of supply and demand of copper and nickel is similar. Both of them are poor in domestic mineral resources and have large smelting capacity, but they still cannot meet the consumer demand. Ore, intermediate products and refined products are all net imports. Aluminum, zinc and tin ore resources are relatively rich, but they are not self-sufficient. They need to import raw ore to meet the smelting demand, and the smelting capacity is large, which can basically meet the domestic demand, so the import demand for refined products is small; The mineral and smelting capacity of lead is relatively matched with consumption, and domestic supply and demand tend to be closed-loop. Affected by the epidemic, the seasonal accumulation time of non-ferrous metals has been extended, and the current inventory peak has not appeared. According to the accumulation cycle of previous years, inventory may reach its peak in the middle and late March.
(3) The time difference between mine supply and steel mill replenishment may affect the iron ore price.
Since the opening of the market after the Spring Festival, the domestic steel output has declined, and the steel price has dropped significantly, but the iron ore index price has remained high and fluctuated greatly. Since the holiday, the main contract price of iron ore futures has risen twice, by about 12%. The main driving factor of this round of iron ore futures rise is market sentiment. With the epidemic under control, the market resumption is expected to be optimistic, leading to a round of iron ore price increase after the holiday opened lower, reaching a maximum of 684 yuan/ton. Subsequently, affected by the spread of international epidemic and the sharp drop in crude oil prices, market panic led to a downturn in iron ore prices. Recently, it was reported in the market that Vale may stop working, which led to the price increase.
In the long run, on the supply side, Australia was affected by tropical cyclones in the first quarter, and the shipments of major ports declined. It is expected that tropical cyclones may still occur in March, which will boost the price of iron ore, but in the medium and long term, the shipment of mines will gradually return to normal and may even increase. On the demand side, the post-holiday port iron ore inventory increased by 2.05 million tons, compared with the same period of last year, the increase this year decreased significantly. After the holiday, the total inventory125.57 million tons, and the absolute inventory is at a low level. With the improvement of transportation, it is expected that the operating rate of blast furnace in long-process steel mills will gradually increase, and the demand for iron ore will increase, so steel mills may replenish their warehouses. In March, there may be a time difference between the normal delivery of mines and the replenishment of steel mills. Normal delivery precedes the replenishment of steel mills, and supply exceeds demand, which is unfavorable to iron ore. Steel mills replenish stocks before normal delivery, and supply exceeds demand, which is beneficial to iron ore. However, the epidemic has spread in many countries around the world, and if it cannot be controlled quickly and effectively, market panic may lead to a drop in commodity prices. As the main raw material of steel products, iron ore plays an important role in steel enterprises. According to relevant data, the raw material cost of iron ore in China accounts for about 40% of the total cost of steel, and because most iron ores in China are of poor quality and are not suitable for mining, 70% of iron ore demand depends on foreign imports. The price change of imported iron ore is directly related to the operation of China's iron and steel enterprises.
3. The machinery and equipment industry is greatly affected in the short term, and the improvement trend in the medium and long term remains unchanged.
Machinery manufacturing is an important industry in China's national economy. As one of the leading industries and basic industries in the national economy, the added value of machinery manufacturing occupies a large proportion in the national economy. In the machinery manufacturing industry, instrumentation and construction machinery industries account for a large proportion of imports and exports. At present, the epidemic in COVID-19 is spreading to the whole world. Major European raw materials and components, including automobile chassis and engines, purchased by China machinery manufacturing enterprises usually place orders six months in advance, and the short-term supply is basically unaffected. However, if the global epidemic lasts for several months, it will lead to the suspension of major manufacturers in Germany and other European countries, which may affect the supply chain.
The global epidemic is still going on, and it will take some time to fully resume normal production and operation. In addition, it is expected that the losses caused by shutdown before the first quarter will be greatly reduced. Faced with the short-term operational difficulties of some small and medium-sized enterprises, the relevant departments have issued a number of support policies. It is predicted that in 2020, the economic operation of machinery industry will show a trend of low before and high after, and gradually pick up. If the epidemic can be ended as soon as possible, the business indicators of leading enterprises will still maintain a small increase.