China has experienced the fastest development in the past 20 years, with rapid economic growth year after year. Now, it has become the locomotive of global economic growth. As a barometer reflecting the economy, the stock market, if you seize the stock market, is equivalent to seizing the leader of this golden opportunity. In the previous fifteen years, due to the country's transition stage, the function of the stock market as an economic barometer was distorted, but as a product of marketization, the stock market will definitely show its function. The stock market owes a large amount of debt for economic growth, and the opportunity to "pay off the debt" is the fifth anniversary of China's accession to the WTO (165438+2006 10). After 15 years of distortion and repression, after five years of bear market, the energy burst out in China stock market may surprise many investors. The image is a bit like the tsunami that happened in the Indian Ocean on February 26th, 2004, 65438.
I have done a survey in the securities market before, and quite a few professionals are not optimistic about the China stock market in 2006. They believe that this 800 billion "garbage" (the current market value of A shares) has not been dumped, and another 2 trillion "garbage" (state-owned shares and legal person shares that can be circulated after the split share structure is resolved) will flood in, and there are still a large number of new and old shares that are fully circulated to be issued. The market doesn't have that much money to undertake. In fact, the long-term downturn of China stock market is mainly caused by two major problems: the stock issuance system and the operating mechanism of listed companies. These two problems must be solved before the end of the five-year transition period of China's accession to the WTO in 2006. Only by solving these two problems can the stock market play its functions of investment, financing and moderate speculation. Market funds will skyrocket like the Yangtze River flood.
The savings of China residents increased from less than 2 trillion RMB in 1993 to 14 trillion RMB now. In addition, this year 1 1 month, the China government promised to open its market, and the securities market is no exception. The scale of a medium-sized foreign investment fund is several hundred billion dollars, equivalent to RMB, which can completely buy all the shares of China A shares at present. Only the stock market that is open to foreign investment will usher in a real bull market, and emerging markets such as Hongkong, Taiwan Province, Japan and South Korea can prove this. Therefore, the China stock market will not be short of money, but there are too few stocks. It is necessary to issue new shares in strict accordance with market standards and expand its capacity. The market value of the stock market circulation is 6 trillion to 8 trillion yuan, which is relatively moderate.
Although a big bottom will be formed in 2006, its complexity and risk cannot be underestimated, because this is the transitional stage from a bear market to a bull market. Roughly divided into:
1, spring "rising" market
On June 65438+1 October1day, 2006, two laws, the Company Law and the Securities Law, which had great influence on China's securities market came into effect. The standardization of the securities market has been guaranteed by law, which undoubtedly enhances the confidence of investors. In addition, before the end of March, the progress of share reform was accelerated, and new capital entering the market increased. At present, xiaoyang line has been closed every day for two weeks. The increase and volume of individual stocks can be expanded, and the technical form of the rising channel is intact. From the technical analysis, this wave of rebound can last until the end of March and April, and the height is between 1300 and 1400, and some stocks may increase greatly. This wave of market is worth participating in.
2. Section II "Adjusting" the Market
According to the data analysis, more than 60% of the share reform can be completed before the end of March, and new and old shares with full circulation may be issued in April of the second quarter. At this time, it is very likely that stock index futures will be launched in the third quarter, because stock index futures can be shorted, and with the expansion of new share issuance, the technical indicators of the stock index have been too high since it rose from 65438+ 10 in March, and there will be a big adjustment after April. After this wave of market adjustment, the stock price will be divided.
3. Section III "Stock" Market
If the stock index futures are launched in July-August, then the adjustment market after April will continue until the stock index futures are launched. After the real launch of stock index futures, under the thinking that all negative things are good, the market may soar and the high point will pass the high point in the first quarter. At this time, when people relax their vigilance, the market will be greatly enlarged. Be careful if it comes to stagflation. That is to say, the daily turnover is 50 billion, and the index only rises by 5 points or 10 points. At this time, nine times out of ten, institutions are establishing short contracts for stock index futures, so we must be careful at this time. It is best to sell the stocks in your hands, because this wave of decline will fall sharply and deeply, and some stocks will become worthless with the delisting of listed companies. Stock index futures is the best way to squeeze bubbles by market means, but it is also the most cruel. After the introduction of stock index futures in the 1980s, the US stock market ushered in several Black Mondays, and the introduction of stock index futures in Israel in the 1990s also caused the stock market to plummet. China stock market is currently undergoing structural adjustment. Because of the complexity of the structure, this wave of decline may be shorter, but the risk is greater than that of the United States and Israel at that time, so this may be the most important step to guard against this big bull market. If we can avoid this risk, the road behind us is the broad road.
However, this wave of market also brings investors who do stock index futures opportunities with short time and rich returns. I predict that it will take three months at the earliest and six months at the longest to complete this declining market. If you do it right, there may be several times the return, and the market may have low innovation.
4. Buyer's market in the fourth quarter
Driven by the decline of stock index futures, the market will fall into panic. Some stocks may be bought without limit, just like the market in September, 20065438+0. If you want to sell 654.38 million shares, you have to hit several daily limit. At this time, the issuance of fully circulated new shares is not better than usual, and the pricing is lower. At this time, you must go against the popular thinking and be as decisive as the first batch of people who bought the original shares in the early 1990s. "Bankruptcy" to buy fully circulated new shares. I predict that the annual chart of the stock market in 2006 (based on the current Shanghai Composite Index) will receive a positive line of 300 to 500 points.