First, short-term risks.
Suppose the cost price of a commodity is 2000, and the highest price in history is 4000. What's the difference between long and short? Compared with the cost price of 2000, the historical high price of 4000 has a huge profit. As the price of this commodity rises, the demand for this commodity will decrease, the supply will increase, and the probability of price decline will gradually increase. But when the price reaches 4000, the market may not reverse immediately, and the price may continue to rise to 5000 or even 6000 before reversing. If you short at the price of 4000 points, you may have exploded before the market reverses. Because no one knows how much the price will rise, it is possible to short halfway up the mountain, which is the risk of shorting.
Second, do more natural advantages.
A natural advantage of doing more is inflation. Generally speaking, the inflation rate is greater than 0. If the annual inflation rate is 3%, under the leverage of futures market 10 times, the theoretical return of futures for one more year is 30%. In fact, in China, the actual inflation rate should far exceed 3%, so in theory, the annual inflation income brought by long futures is above 30% on average.
The utilization rate of long funds is much higher than that of short funds. If the prices of futures contracts are 2000 lows and 4000 highs. Suitable for bulls, the margin required by bulls is 200, and that of bears is 400. If you do too much, it is easy to eat the market. This is not uncommon in China futures market. How many forced positions are short positions, and how many short positions are forced positions, but forced positions naturally have advantages, because goods will never have much money. According to the statistics of trend trading, in the statistics of 1 1 year, only the compound annualized rate of return of long trading is 15.5%, and only the compound annualized rate of return of short trading is 2.5%.