In fact, most people are speculative. How many people do physical delivery? Apples of grade 1 and above are 3.2/ kg, which has reached the wholesale price of apples and has bottomed out. Now a large number of speculative empty orders need to be closed, and a large number of empty orders need to be transferred to the receiver. Once the price rises, the receiver will be buried alive. Please think twice about shorting.
Apple futures is the first fresh fruit futures in the world. The characteristics of fresh fruit are obvious, which makes it different from other varieties. As far as Apple is concerned, its characteristics are:
First, the weather is the biggest factor. Like other agricultural products, the weather has a great influence on the output and price of apples, especially on apples. Apples are ripened once a year, and early-maturing varieties may be available from June to July, but the red Fuji delivered will not be available until 65438+ 10, and it will probably last until 65438+ 10. Apple has a long shelf life and can be stored for more than one year by refrigeration technology. Obviously, because apples are only cooked once a year, it is very uneconomical to store them for more than one year. Apple is not a strategic material and does not need strategic reserves. Apple trees take about five years to grow and bear fruit. This leads to the basic conclusion. When the annual output of apples is completely consumed within 1 year, the price is different. The yield depends on the sowing amount five years ago and the weather in that year.
Second, the transaction cost is low. In order to promote new varieties and attract players to enter the market, Zhengshang Institute has set a very low transaction fee for Apple. Among all futures varieties, only the transaction cost of stock index futures before castration can be compared.
Third, there may be problems with delivery. The launch of new varieties is always prone to problems. From now on, it is inevitable that there will be problems in delivery. First of all, the delivery target of Apple Futures is high-quality Red Fuji. What is the proportion of high-quality red Fuji in the whole red Fuji? I don't have this data at present, but it is relatively certain that most of the Red Fuji do not meet the factory standards. Secondly, the organization needs years of accumulation. Apple's delivery standard includes many dimensions, such as fruit diameter, color, hardness, sweetness and so on. It may be difficult for spot traders who haven't done it for many years to complete the delivery. In addition, there are many links and costs in the delivery process. Judging from the warehouse receipt of the AP805 contract, it has entered the delivery month, and only 13 warehouse receipt has been generated. Difficulties in delivery make futures prices far from the spot and become a paradise for speculators.
Fourth, there is no historical transaction data for the listing of new varieties. Due to the lack of historical data of new varieties, many arbitrage institutions and quantitative strategy teams lack historical data and will not easily enter the market. Speculators of new varieties will be much more than other types of traders.