The current policy tightening and frequent real estate control measures are the main variables leading to the recent deep decline of Shanghai Copper, and external uncertainties such as the Greek crisis and Goldman Sachs incident may extend this adjustment cycle. Although the copper price overreacts to the bad news in the market, it is also the inevitable result of investors' weakening willingness to take risks to some extent. The current policy tightening and frequent real estate control measures are the main variables leading to the recent deep decline of Shanghai Copper, and external uncertainties such as the Greek crisis and Goldman Sachs incident may extend this adjustment cycle. Although the copper price overreacts to the bad news in the market, it is also the inevitable result of investors' weakening willingness to take risks to some extent. At present, the copper market lacks new bullish speculation themes in a systematic negative atmosphere, which determines that it is difficult for copper prices to break away from the weak oscillation pattern in the short term. If the seasonal consumption season of metals can effectively consume huge stocks in the market, there is still hope for further strength of copper prices in the medium term. Intensive policy control curbed the rise of copper prices. Since April, the central bank has obviously increased its control over liquidity in the banking system. On April 8, the central bank restarted the issuance of three-year central bank bills with a scale of 654.38+0.5 billion yuan; On April 22, the circulation of 3-year central bank bills was enlarged to 90 billion yuan; On May 6, 654.38+04 billion yuan of three-month central bank bills and 6543.8+0654.38+00 billion yuan of three-year central bank bills were reissued. On May 2nd, the People's Bank of China decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions to 17% for the third time this year, just one step away from the peak of 17.5% created in June 2008. The intensive control measures of the central bank directly impacted the financial market. With the recent Goldman Sachs fraud scandal and the Greek crisis, Shanghai Copper fell by nearly 10% in just over ten trading days. However, if viewed rationally, the central bank frequently adopts open market operations and reserve measures to regulate market liquidity, which reflects that the management prefers to use quantitative tools to achieve a steady exit of easing policies, rather than raising interest rates as a price-based tool. The author believes that this is not only an economic consideration based on weakening the expectation of interest rate hike in the market, but also a risk consideration to prevent interest rate hike from inhibiting economic recovery. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the central bank's recent acceleration of liquidity contraction will at most smooth out the need for a large amount of credit supply last year, which will not lead to "ischemia" in the market and will not hurt the total social demand under the premise of moderate control. The sharp drop in copper prices is more due to the excessive negative interpretation of policy regulation at the market psychological level. This round of real estate regulation has also contributed to a sharp drop in copper prices. With the further development of property tax and other regulatory measures, the real estate market is hard to see improvement in the short term. Because the construction industry is a big consumer of metals, its psychological suppression of copper prices is self-evident. Short-term market risk appetite has dropped significantly, and the expanding risk aversion in the short term is bearish. This is manifested in the fact that since the Shanghai Copper main contract 1008 hit a new high on April 12, it has been relatively passive in dealing with the bullish fundamentals of the market, but it has been fierce in dealing with systemic risks such as policy contraction and real estate regulation. Recently, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts of copper on the London Metal Exchange has risen again, resulting in the reduction of copper stocks to less than 500,000 tons. The European and American markets seem to reproduce positive consumption prospects. However, due to the fact that copper prices at home and abroad are at a historical high range, the market lacks the motivation to speculate on the theme of new lido, and investors' caution still dominates. In particular, if we consider that there are many factors of hot money speculation in the early stage of copper futures, investors who prefer to speculate on the financial attributes of copper prices or choose to withdraw and wait and see under the policy background of loose liquidity, this will also weaken the long-term financial strength of copper market. From the spot market point of view, as the copper price fluctuates upward in the early stage and gradually approaches the historical peak, spot traders will sell on rallies in the spot market or set up short positions in the futures market for the purpose of locking in profits or avoiding the risk of high hoarding, which is one of the reasons why copper prices have been hovering at a high level for some time and it is difficult to form an effective breakthrough. At present, the copper inventory in the previous period is close to 6.5438+0.9 million tons, which is the highest value since September 2002. There should still be a lot of social invisible inventory inflows with traders' background. The prospects for recovery in the peripheral economy are bleak. 1June 1968 +065438+ Last year1October, the sovereign debt crisis that started in Dubai and spread to Europe has not yet dispersed. Although the euro zone countries and the International Monetary Fund promised on May 3 that they would provide Greece with loans totaling110 billion euros in the next three years, which eased the possibility of further deterioration of the Greek problem, investors reacted negatively to this news because the international credit rating agencies successively downgraded the credit ratings of Greece, Portugal and Spain at the end of last month, and the market was worried that the "demonstration effect" of Greece would lead to the credit crisis of the euro zone countries. Greece's "debt-for-debt" crisis solution determines that it will take a long time for the countries concerned to completely pay off their debts, even at the expense of economic growth. Therefore, this round of debt crisis will exist as a medium-and long-term macro negative factor in European and American markets. On the other hand, the recovery of the world's major economies is still slightly fragile. Although more and more people begin to join the "optimist" camp of world economic recovery with the evidence of relevant economic indicators, the repeated characteristics of some economic fields and the increase of random uncertain events have added some variables to the road of world economic recovery. Especially with the gradual and orderly withdrawal of economic stimulus plans of various countries, the industries hit hard by the financial crisis in 2008 may fall into recession again, and the hidden worries of the post-crisis era of the US housing market and financial system are gradually exposed. The consumption effect of terminal demand has not yet appeared. If we only look at the obvious growth in the downstream consumption field of the domestic copper market, there is no doubt that the manufacturing industry as a whole will continue to recover strongly to drive the demand for terminal copper. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China manufacturing industry in April 20 10. 55.7% of the data increased by 0.6 percentage points from last month, and the index has remained above 50% for 14 months. Some analysts believe that a series of economic activity indicators released recently show that China's economic prosperity will maintain a high level in the second quarter, and copper consumption industries such as electricity and automobiles will continue to maintain rapid growth in April. Although the current real estate market continues to cool down under the atmosphere of strict regulation and control, the government has introduced policies to curb high housing prices, but at the same time, it has also increased the planned supply of land for affordable housing, shantytown renovation and small and medium-sized commercial housing. The National Residential Land Supply Plan 20 10 issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources on April 5, 2006 pointed out that the planned supply of residential land reached180,000 hectares this year, with a year-on-year increase of over 135%. Therefore, focusing on the medium and long term, this new property market policy will not cause too much negative pressure on real estate supply and copper consumption. However, it is undeniable that the demand consumption effect of the copper market terminal has not appeared at present. Although the downstream orders of copper enterprises are active, there are traces of both supply and demand in the spot market in April, but this is not enough to change the overall loose supply situation in the copper market. The author analyzes that due to the unclear trend of copper market since 20 10, many copper production and processing enterprises began to gradually sell and cash out in the early stage. Only when this part of social inventory has an "inflection point" in the peak season will the domestic demand factor once again lead the copper price to start a new round of gains.

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