At the 2006 Summer and Autumn China Cereals, Oils and Feeds Futures Market Forum jointly organized by the National Cereals and Oils Information Center and the Group, Zhu, the former director of the State Grain Bureau, said that the initial judgment of the grain situation in 2006 was that the output increased slightly and the consumption increased rigidly, and the gap between production and demand was balanced by digging up stocks. The grain output in 2006 may reach or exceed 980 billion Jin, and the price will still rise steadily in 2007.

It is reported that in 2006, the production started well, the sown area of grain increased compared with that in 2005, and the summer grain was harvested, with an output of 227.6 billion Jin, an increase of 654.38+048 billion Jin compared with that in 2005. In terms of consumption, the national grain consumption increased steadily in 2006, among which the corn consumption increased rapidly. In particular, the deep processing capacity of corn is expected to increase by more than 5 million tons compared with 2005, with an increase of 20%, of which Jilin will increase by more than 3 million tons. In 2006, the processing capacity of the whole province will exceed130,000 tons. Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other provinces have also launched a large number of corn deep processing projects, which will digest a large number of local corn. In this way, there will be less and less corn grain sources outside the province. In two or three years, there may be no corn. To this end, Zhu pointed out that developing countries should have proper supervision over corn-based grain deep processing projects.

In addition to the above reasons, the reason for this judgment is that from the perspective of market changes, corn supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the future corn market price trend should be in a stable and firm channel, with a fluctuation space of 50- 100 yuan. Although the current corn price has dropped slightly, it will continue to be firm with limited fluctuation. It is preliminarily predicted that the price of corn wagons in Changchun, Jilin before the New Year will be 1300 yuan/ton.

He believes that the factors that promote the rise of corn prices are: First, corn deep processing enterprises purchase a large number of raw materials to lead the market price. Second, the breeding season has picked up. Although it is not obvious, the inventory is low, and the grain purchase is cautious, corn consumption still occupies the main position. Third, oil prices push up transportation costs. Fourth, international corn prices are also rising. In addition, he also listed three reasons to curb the price of corn: that is, there are still some old stocks in Northeast China that must be sold in 2006; Grain reserves will also enter the normal rotation period, and the market supply will be increased seasonally; The exit has basically stopped. From June 5438+ 10 in 2005 to July 2006, the cumulative export of corn was 3.8 million tons, and it is estimated that the annual export will be about 4 million tons. From the change of corn inventory, the decrease of state-owned enterprises and the increase of non-state-owned enterprises offset each other, and the inventory decreased by 6.9 million tons. At present, the proportion of inventory consumption is at a safe level, but the number of market players has increased and the multi-channel competition has become more intense. Fifth, the sown area of corn has increased, and it is growing well at present, which has a positive effect on market expectations. In addition, 50,000 tons of corn imported from the United States by Shandong Wang Xi Sugar Company was successfully unloaded at Qingdao Port on August 8, 2006, and the CNF price was 149 USD/ton. After paying taxes, the total import cost is 1.453 yuan/ton, which will also have a certain effect on people's psychological expectations. Therefore, the impact of future weather changes on output and corn imports are uncertain factors, which will have a certain impact on market fluctuations.

Zhu suggested that the state implement control measures for corn deep processing, mainly including three regulating valves. One is the financial subsidy control valve, which implements mandatory budget management. In 2005, 760,000 tons of corn-based energy ethanol was subsidized, and in 2006, the subsidy was 6.5438+0.02 million tons. Second, the market circulation control valve, the energy alcohol produced is not allowed to be sold in the market at will, and must be sold to PetroChina in a unified way, which is solely controlled and managed by PetroChina. The third is the control valve of raw material substitution, which gives key policy support and inclination to energy alcohol projects with straw, cassava, sugarcane and other non-grain raw materials (including financial subsidies). In addition, we can also increase and improve policies to support grain production, stabilize the cooperative relationship between production and marketing areas, and vigorously promote the construction of grain logistics.