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The difference between the new financial crisis and the Asian financial crisis

This financial crisis may be different from the Asian financial crisis that happened ten years ago. Ten years ago, the Asian financial crisis was mainly manifested as the balance of payments crisis. At that time, a large number of foreign debts due in Asia needed to be repaid, and at the same time, international financial speculators ran on them one after another, which led to insufficient foreign exchange reserves in these countries and forced their currencies to depreciate sharply. The form of the new round of financial crisis is not necessarily marked by the shortage of international payments, because many emerging market countries have relatively high foreign exchange reserves today, and because they have learned the lessons of the Asian financial crisis, these countries have not borrowed on a large scale, but have attracted a large amount of foreign capital through the securities market. However, this does not mean that emerging market countries are not facing the financial crisis. The financial crisis took the form of a large amount of capital return, which led to a sharp drop in the price of the domestic securities market and the depreciation of the local currency, which led to a decline in the scale of local investment, a slowdown in economic growth and even a recession. This is just a mirror image of the economic prosperity and asset price bubbles in these emerging market countries a few years ago. The trigger of this new financial crisis is probably the Baltic countries, from which it may spread to Eastern European countries, then to South Asia including India, and then to other emerging market countries.

Capital flow should not be liberalized blindly, and fiscal policy should be flexible.

What challenges will China's economy face in the event of such a financial crisis? It is possible that some foreign capital will flee like other emerging market economies, which will have a certain impact on China's balance of payments and bring some deflationary pressure to China's economy, but it is not a bad thing for China's current high-speed operation (in fact, it is too fast). Moreover, this reverse flow of funds will also ease the pressure of RMB appreciation. However, it is undeniable that this reverse flow of funds will have a certain impact on the scale of domestic investment, which will lead to a considerable decline in China's economic growth rate. In addition, the decline in economic growth rate of many emerging market countries will indirectly affect China's economic growth through the decline in demand for China products. These are the impacts of the new financial crisis on China's economy.

We must see that the arrival of this emerging financial crisis has also brought huge "business opportunities" to China. When this round of financial crisis occurs, the asset prices in many emerging markets will be greatly reduced, which will be an excellent opportunity for China's capital to go abroad and invest in these countries, and also the best opportunity for China enterprises to "go abroad" and carry out integrated mergers and acquisitions with corresponding enterprises. Therefore, China's economic circles need to make good preparations in capital and project research. From a macro perspective, macroeconomic policies must take into account the possibility of a new round of financial crisis. On the issue of capital flow, we must be steady and steady, and we must not blindly let go. We should also consider the possibility of a large amount of funds leaving the market and the pressure caused by it. When a financial crisis occurs, China's economic growth rate will inevitably decline, and our fiscal policy must maintain some flexibility. On the premise of continuing to implement the current prudent fiscal policy, we should make good preparations for projects and funds. Once a new round of financial crisis occurs in neighboring countries, China can turn to a proactive fiscal policy and look for some investment projects with financial security and social benefits.

In short, the risk of a new round of financial crisis has come. China's ships, which are moving at full speed, must take into account the possible impact of the financial turmoil, seize the opportunity and defuse the risks, so that our economic development ships will have a bright future.

There is a global financial crisis.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the securities market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The most vulnerable countries are the Baltic countries and India. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, there will be a new financial crisis around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to China's economic development.

The reversal of capital flow will lead to financial crisis in emerging market countries.

Why will there be a new financial crisis in the future? This should start with the basic pattern of financial development in developed economies and emerging market economies in the past decade.

Developed economies, represented by the United States and Britain, have benefited from the general trend of globalization in the past decade, and their economies have continued to prosper, but the foundation of this prosperity is actually relatively fragile. These economies have relatively insufficient self-savings, increasing consumption and strengthening the trend of economic financialization. Its concentrated performance is that families use existing financial assets, especially real estate, as collateral to borrow money from banks to support their rising consumption. The inevitable result of the development of this pattern is the rupture of the consumer credit chain, and the concentrated expression is the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis made American financial institutions reevaluate the cost of financial risks and forced them to redistribute assets to reduce risks.

On the other hand, emerging market economies have attracted a lot of capital from developed countries in the past decade. Take Mexico, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries as examples, more than half of the funds in their securities markets come from abroad. Rising overseas funds not only promote the soaring local asset prices, but also promote the prosperity of the local economy, and at the same time bring about the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate of the local currency. This series of processes has laid the groundwork for the financial crisis of these economies, among which two regions are the most prominent: First, the three Baltic countries-Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, where not only the current account deficit exceeds 10% of GDP, but also the fiscal deficit is getting bigger and bigger, and the rising trend of domestic prices is getting worse. Moreover, these countries have also implemented a linked exchange rate system linked to the euro, which undoubtedly wrote down the best chemical reaction formula that led to the financial crisis.

Another very fragile economy is India. Although India's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 8% in the past three years, its macroeconomic situation is not optimistic: for a long time, India's current account has been in deficit, more than half of the funds in the securities market have come from overseas, the inflation rate has been rising, and the central government has been in deficit for a long time.

Considering the economic situation of developed countries and emerging market countries comprehensively, we can easily draw a conclusion: in the next two years, the world economy is likely to see a reversal of capital flow, that is, the funds that poured into emerging market countries from developed economies in pursuit of high risks and high returns a few years ago will flow back to developed countries in reverse, and the stability of financial institutions in developed countries will be strengthened. The formation of this trend will undoubtedly have a direct impact on developing countries and eventually lead to the formation of financial crisis in emerging market countries.

Direct triggers include:

(1) The impact of hot money in the international financial market. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term.

(2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht.

(3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt.

(4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.

Internal basic factors include:

(1) Overdraft economy is growing rapidly, and non-performing assets are expanding. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors.

(2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect.

(3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.

World economic factors mainly include:

(1) The negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises.

(2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced by developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.

The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, without realizing the paper money standard, including:

(1) Enterprises are heavily in debt, banks are heavily in bad debts, and financial debt crises occur frequently;

(2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control;

(3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis;

(4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered;

(5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability.

(6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems.

The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish an authoritative enterprise transaction settlement intermediary system-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, and eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, so as to avoid the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reduce the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promote stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.

Although the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis has its specific internal causes in all countries: the economy continues to overheat, the economic bubble expands, and the blindness of introducing foreign capital-too much short-term foreign debt, imperfect banking system, collusion between banks and enterprises, and large debts of enterprises. The crisis also has its external causes: the "bad" behavior of international speculators, but people should go further and find out the essential factors of the crisis-modern financial economy and the trend of economic globalization.

Liu believes that the financial crisis is the internal content of the capitalist economic crisis, and the world economic panic of 1929- 1933 is preceded by a serious financial crisis. The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 first occurred in the capitalist world. It can be seen that the financial crisis has its institutional roots and is a capitalist crisis. The possibility of financial crisis lies in the inherent spontaneous monetary credit mechanism of market economy. Once financial activities get out of control and the contradiction between money and money lending intensifies, the financial crisis will be manifested. The modern market economy characterized by highly developed financial activities is itself a high-risk economy, which contains the possibility of financial crisis. Economic globalization and economic integration are another major feature of the contemporary world economy. Economic globalization is the highest form of market economy development beyond national boundaries. With the further development of commodity relations between countries after the Second World War, countries are more interdependent economically, and goods, services, capital, technology and knowledge flow frequently in the international arena.

The trend of economic globalization is more obvious. The globalization of financial activities is an important reason for the new allocation of resources in the contemporary world and the leap-forward development of economically backward countries and regions. However, with the explosive development of international credit and investment and the deepening of internal contradictions, the financial crisis will inevitably break out in those weak links with imperfect systems. To sum up, the modern market economy has not only crises caused by overproduction and insufficient demand, but also financial crises caused by uncontrolled financial credit behavior, excessive use of new financial instruments and excessive speculation in the capital market. In the capitalist world, the crisis of this market operation mechanism is catalyzed and aggravated by the basic system. Financial crisis is inevitable not only in capitalist countries, but also in the socialist market economy system.

The imperfect financial system and out-of-control financial activities are the endogenous factors of the financial crisis. Because of this, in China's current system transformation, people should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the construction of a market economy system regulated by the government, especially to make great efforts to improve the financial system and greatly enhance their ability to prevent endogenous and exogenous financial crises. Abstract: After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, people conducted extensive and in-depth discussions on the causes of the crisis, pointing out the internal and external causes of the crisis, while Liu further pointed out the deep-seated reasons, that is, the modern monetary credit mechanism led to the crisis. As long as modern market economy exists, the inherent monetary credit mechanism of market economy may lead to financial crisis. However, it only happens in countries with imperfect systems and the weakest countries. This is no exception in socialist market economy countries. Even so, we can still prevent the financial crisis by improving the financial system, and Liu pointed out a way to prevent the financial crisis.

cause

1July 2, 997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Break the scene of rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some Asian economic powers began to slump and the political situation in some countries began to be chaotic.

So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?

After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:

1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;

2. The influence of American economic interests and policies;

3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.

One: George? Soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;

"Financial Predator" and "Sleeping Wolf" are the titles of this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. " As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.

Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:

1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. With strong economic backing, he established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia have all become economic dependencies of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.

However, in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the Eastern Group. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.

Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:

Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether the Thai baht should be bought or sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, and there is not enough foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.

arouse

(1) The openness of a country's economy is based on its strong economic strength and stable political power. Only strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about real economic development.

(2) Only when economists have a correct outlook on life and values can they promote social progress and development, otherwise they will not be real economists and will hinder economic development.

(3) Only by improving the comprehensive national strength can a country be in an invincible position.