The Impact of Strong Earthquake in Japan on Global Economy

On June 5438+0 1 day, an earthquake measuring 8.8 on the Richter scale occurred in the northeastern waters of Japan, which triggered a large-scale tsunami, and the northeast industrial zone was hit hard. How much economic losses will be caused by the earthquake, how the recovery process of Japan, the third largest economy in the world, will be affected, whether the global economy will be affected, and whether the trend of international commodity prices will be reversed, all these issues have aroused concern.

How much economic loss did the earthquake cause?

In view of the losses caused by secondary disasters such as earthquake and tsunami, Jim O 'Neill, chairman of the board of directors of Goldman Sachs, said: "It is still difficult to judge the scope and amount of damage." However, the economic losses caused by this earthquake will mainly come from two aspects.

The first is the direct losses caused by the earthquake and tsunami. Compared with the Kobe earthquake in Japan 1995, the northeast area, the hardest hit area of this earthquake, is not the most important industrial area in Japan. However, despite this, many important industrial factories such as automobiles, nuclear power, petrochemicals and semiconductors are also concentrated in this area, and the economic scale of this area accounts for about 8% of Japan's gross domestic product (GDP). At present, the automobile industry is the hardest hit. Twenty-two factories of Japan's three major automakers, Toyota, Honda and Nissan, have been closed.

Secondly, the earthquake will lead to a supply chain crisis. Although Japan's major manufacturers have not suffered catastrophic damage, due to the earthquake and traffic disruption, the supply of raw materials has been affected, and finished products cannot be transported to airports or ports. Because Japan plays an extremely important role in the global industrial chain, the supply chain crisis will bring losses to Japanese manufacturers and even global manufacturers in a few months.

Will the earthquake change the track of Japanese economic recovery?

Many analysts pointed out that the earthquake is likely to change this trend. Due to the shutdown of many factories in Japan, power shortage and frustrated consumer confidence, Japan's economy will be hit hard in the short term. Wolfgang Lyme, an expert on Japan at Commerzbank, said: "In the first quarter of this year, Japan's economy may still contract slightly." Li, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank, believes that there is stagflation risk in Japan's economy in the short term.

However, since then, with the development of reconstruction work, the Japanese economy may have a "V"-shaped rebound. Some analysts predict that Japan's economic growth will rebound to 3% at an annual rate in the next three quarters.

Will the earthquake affect the process of global economic recovery?

In view of Japan's important position in the global industrial chain, the temporary export interruption caused by the earthquake will inevitably affect enterprises in other countries. For example, Japan's chip industry accounts for one-fifth of the global market, and popular electronic products such as Apple ipad also rely heavily on Japanese manufacturers' NAND flash memory. For another example, the wings and main landing gear of Boeing 787 Dreamliner are all provided by Japanese manufacturers.

However, Jeffrey M. Lang Zberg, the head of Komodo Research Consulting in the United States, pointed out that "from a global perspective, the impact of the Japanese earthquake is only short-term." Alfredo Cudino, an economist at Moody's, even thinks that Japan's post-disaster reconstruction may boost global trade.

Will the earthquake aggravate the Japanese government's debt crisis?

At the time of the earthquake in Japan, the Japanese government was struggling with the fiscal deficit. At present, Japan's debt accounts for about 200% of GDP, which is higher than that of any developed country. After the earthquake, the Japanese government will inevitably increase its budget, which will undoubtedly worsen Japan's financial situation.

Considering Japan's debt risk, the international rating agency Standard & Poor's 1 downgraded Japan's long-term debt rating in 10, while another rating giant Moody's also downgraded Japan's sovereign credit rating outlook to negative last month.

What is the trend of Japanese yen exchange rate?

O 'Neill believes that since Japan's current recovery power comes largely from exports, avoiding the appreciation of the yen will be the key to Japan's economic recovery. However, after the earthquake of 5438+0 1 in June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar in the Tokyo foreign exchange market once rose by 1.4%.

When predicting the recent factors affecting the yen exchange rate, analysts pointed out that measures such as enterprises coping with reconstruction and insurance companies selling overseas assets coping with claims will lead to the return of funds to Japan and push up the yen exchange rate. In addition, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will further loosen monetary policy at 14, which will affect the exchange rate of the yen.

Will crude oil and commodity prices be affected?

Japan is the third largest oil importer in the world. Due to the earthquake, the country's oil refining facilities were damaged and the import demand decreased. The international oil price dropped sharply at 1 1, and the crude oil futures price in new york market fell below 100 USD for the first time in a week.

Raymond Kaben, a the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil trader, said: "The Japanese earthquake will push down oil prices, but it won't last long." He believes that according to past experience, after major natural disasters in the world, the initial reaction of oil prices is to fall, but it will rebound in the short term, because the reconstruction process will increase the demand for crude oil, thus pushing up oil prices.

Japan is not only a big importer of crude oil, but also a big demand for iron ore. As many domestic steel mills stop production, analysts predict that Japan's demand for iron ore will be reduced by 20 million tons in the short term, which will put short-term pressure on prices. (Securities Daily Xinhua News Agency reporter Jin Wei Qiao Jihong He Degong)

According to analysis, the economic losses caused by the earthquake to Japan may exceed 654.38+000 billion US dollars.

According to the latest news, the economic losses brought by the earthquake to Japan may exceed 654.38+000 billion US dollars, and the subsequent negative impact is still difficult to assess.

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said yesterday that this is the worst crisis in Japan since World War II.

9.0 on the Richter scale: the fourth largest earthquake in the world

Yesterday afternoon (local time), Japan Meteorological Agency adjusted the earthquake magnitude from 8.8 on the Richter scale to 9.0. According to the Meteorological Agency, within three days from yesterday 10, the probability of an aftershock of magnitude 7 or above is 70%, and the probability for the next three days is still 50%.

An increase of 0.2 magnitude means that the energy of the earthquake has doubled. Compared with the Hanshin earthquake of 1995, the energy of this earthquake is about 360 times that of the latter.

Such a high magnitude ranks fourth in earthquake history, second only to Chile earthquake 1960 (9.5 on the Richter scale), Alaska earthquake 1964 (9.2 on the Richter scale) and Indonesia earthquake in 2004 (9. 1 on the Richter scale).

In the tsunami triggered by the earthquake, Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima counties in northeastern Japan suffered heavy losses. According to NHK TV in Japan, the total number of deaths confirmed yesterday was 983, another 739 people were missing, and more than 450,000 people took refuge in government-designated shelters.

Experts say the death toll may rise sharply. Miyagi police headquarters said that more than 600 bodies had been found in the county. In addition, about 65,438+00,000 residents in Minamisanriku-CHO, the county have been unable to get in touch. "The death toll will undoubtedly exceed 10000."

At 5: 58 pm yesterday, the Japan Meteorological Agency lifted the tsunami warning along the Pacific coast. So far, all tsunami warnings in Japan have been lifted.

The nuclear threat is getting more and more serious.

The crisis of Japan's nuclear power plant triggered by the earthquake has made the Japanese people and East Asian countries nervous.

* * * According to the same news agency, Tohoku Electric Power Company of Japan said on June 38+03 that the nuclear power plant in Nagawa City, Miyagi Prefecture, which was the hardest hit area, was abnormal. The measured radiation of radioactive materials is 400 times of the normal standard, and the nuclear power plant has entered the first-level (lowest level) emergency state.

The Japanese government had previously reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that three reactors at the Nagawa nuclear power plant in Miyagi Prefecture had been controlled by emergency workers, but the danger happened again yesterday.

It is also reported that the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, issued an urgent notice to the government on the morning of 1 1, announcing that the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has entered a "state of emergency".

At present, the Japanese government has ordered people within a radius of 20 kilometers of two nuclear power plants to evacuate, bringing the total number of evacuees to 246,000.

At the same time, it is reported that the Japanese government said on June 38+03 that at least 1 reactor of Fukushima nuclear power plant may have been "melted down". Previously, the Japan Broadcasting Association introduced that "meltdown" means that after the nuclear reactor loses cooling water, the heat generated by radioactive materials in the fuel cannot be removed, and high temperature will melt the fuel rods, which is the most serious state of affairs in nuclear power accidents.

In addition, Japan's neighboring countries, including China, have begun to worry about the impact of nuclear leakage and taken various preventive measures. Experts said that this nuclear crisis will bring profound reflection to the development of the global nuclear industry.

Starting today, the power outage will take turns.

Yesterday, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which controls the main power supply in Japan, said that from today (Monday), a large number of enterprises will start to work, which will lead to a large-scale power shortage, so it plans to implement the measures of power outage by turns.

The latest news that our reporter got last night shows that this measure will last until the end of April.

Japan's "Daily News" reported that the power outage in Tokyo will have a wide impact on local industries. In the automobile industry, Honda, Nissan and Fuji Heavy Industries, whose factories are concentrated in the Kanto circle, are greatly affected. Honda said that although its factory in Saitama is equipped with its own generators, it will have to stop production if there is a power outage for a long time. Nissan and Fuji Heavy Industries will be more affected. Four of Nissan's six factories in Japan are in Kanagawa Prefecture, and Fuji Heavy Industries also has five factories in Gunma Prefecture. If the power is cut off for a long time, their losses will be even greater.

Yesterday, Naoto Kan appointed Lian Fang, the only Chinese minister in the cabinet and the minister of administrative refresh, as the "Minister in charge of energy-saving inspiration", and also set up a countermeasure headquarters headed by Yukio Edano, Chief Cabinet Secretary, and held its first meeting at 5 pm yesterday.

"The power outage will have a major impact on the Japanese economy, especially in the metropolitan area centered on Tokyo." Chen Jian 'an, a professor at the School of Economics of Fudan University, said that the damaged units of the two nuclear power plants in Fukushima could not be recovered in a short time, and it would take a long time to put in new equipment, so the power shortage would last for a long time.

Looking forward to "reconstruction and recovery"

"In the medium and long term, the earthquake will stimulate Japanese investment and play a role in improving Japan's GDP growth rate." Chen Jianan said.

Zhang Jifeng, director of the Economic Research Office of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the earthquake will not have much impact on the Japanese economy.

Zhang Jifeng, who once worked and lived in Sendai for 10 years, said that the above three counties are relatively backward areas in Japan, and the worst-hit areas are also relatively backward among the above three counties. "For example, the Lin Ruo District of Sendai City, which was seriously affected, is a relatively backward area in Sendai City."

"The sum of the economic aggregates of the six counties in Northeast Japan only accounts for 6.4% of Japan's GDP, and Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima account for 4% of Japan's GDP, so it will not have much impact on Japan's economic aggregate." Zhang Jifeng said that increasing Japan's energy imports after the earthquake may lead to an increase in international energy prices, which may alleviate the pressure of deflation on Japan's economy.

Regarding the media's claim that Japan's GDP will drop by 1 ~ 2 percentage points, Zhang Jifeng bluntly said that such a judgment is groundless: "At present, the number of casualties is still unknown, and the assessment of the entire earthquake loss is completely unfounded." Zhang Jifeng believes that the earthquake will cause certain losses to Japan in a short period of time, but judging from the reconstruction experience after the Great Hanshin Earthquake 1995, Japan's post-disaster recovery ability is very strong. "1995 and 1996, Japan's GDP growth rate exceeded 3%, which is a relatively high speed in the past two decades. Therefore, this earthquake may also be a good opportunity for the Japanese economy to accelerate its development. "

The economic impact on China should be limited.

According to the Voice of China News Night, Japan, as an economy with world influence and one of the engines of this round of currency flooding, what impact will the earthquake have on Japan's domestic economy and what impact will it have on the slowly recovering world economy? The reporter talked with Ye Tan, a financial commentator, and analyzed the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the world economy.

Reporter: A strong earthquake of magnitude 8 or above occurred in Japan on Friday. The earthquake had a great impact on the Japanese stock market. The Nikkei may fall by more than 100 points. What impact will the earthquake in Japan have on the whole Japanese economy?

Ye Tan: I think this will have a great impact on the Japanese economy. We know that the Japanese economy has been in the process of slow recovery since last year. By continuously issuing its currency, global liquidity is more abundant. If there is no earthquake, the yen may replace the dollar as the main arbitrage currency in the world. However, after such an earthquake, we will find that there are two situations. First, Japanese asset prices began to decline, and second, the yen began to return. It released less liquidity to the world, and began to return to China to start infrastructure construction and post-disaster reconstruction, leading to a trend that global funds may decrease. 20 10 We expect that the yen may beat the dollar to become an arbitrage currency. Since the earthquake in Japan changed this expectation, the US dollar is still the main arbitrage currency.

Reporter: We are close neighbors of Japan and have more economic exchanges with Japan. Will the Japanese earthquake have any impact on China's economy?

Ye Tan: I think the Japanese earthquake will have an impact on China's economy, but the impact will not be too great. First, China does not have a very open capital product market to let the yen in, so even if the yen returns, it will not have much impact on China. Second, although the trade volume between China and China is relatively high,'s main export destinations are Europe and America. As long as the two export destinations maintain a market balance, the impact on China will not be too great. This situation in Japan will have some psychological impact on China. For example, the China stock market will also fall, and the prices of domestic products may fall, but the long-term impact may not exist.

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