First, dollar hegemony: from the gold standard to the dollar standard
In 1792, the dollar formed a currency area in 13 colony. At that time, the United States was only a country with a population of 4 million.
But at the same time, the dollar also poses an irresistible fatal temptation to the United States. According to david ricardo's theory, every country has a comparative advantage in international trade, and any country should strive to produce more products in its own comparative advantage, participate in international exchanges and realize national development. The establishment of the global hegemonic currency status of the US dollar makes the US dollar the biggest comparative advantage compared with other countries. When other countries desperately produce all kinds of goods and resources, the United States can participate in international trade and buy products from other countries for its own consumption as long as it can easily print dollars. For any individual or country, such cheap things are irresistible temptations. As a result, while supporting American global hegemony, the dollar is constantly nourishing American inertia.
The dollar is a symbol of American strength and status. The essence of dollar hegemony lies in supporting American global hegemony. Dollar hegemony has brought huge economic benefits and laid an indispensable economic foundation for American global hegemony. As the US dollar is the main international currency, the United States has the privilege of printing foreign exchange on its own, and continuously provides funds for maintaining global hegemony. Economic strength and military strength are the two pillars of American global hegemony. After World War II, the United States dominated the world with atomic bombs and dollars. American international political economist Robert? Gilpin made a profound exposition. He said: "The basis of American hegemonic position is the role of the US dollar in the international monetary system and its nuclear deterrence extended to all allies. The dollar basically uses its international status to solve the economic burden of global hegemony. ……"
The United States' use of the dollar privilege to seek hegemony has aroused widespread dissatisfaction among countries all over the world. French President Charles de Gaulle once sharply criticized Americans for printing dollars at will in order to fight a colonial war in Vietnam and try to buy foreign companies to fund their political hegemony in Europe and other parts of the world. Therefore, in a sense, the dollar is also a political currency. "The fate of the dollar is the fate of the United States."
The establishment of post-war dollar hegemony can be roughly divided into two stages: the gold standard stage before 197 1 and the dollar standard stage after 197 1. Because the Bretton Woods system had irreconcilable contradictions from the beginning, after accumulating 10 years, the contradictions finally broke out. With the escalation of the Cold War and the economic recovery of Western Europe and Japan, the strength of the United States declined and its advantages decreased. From 65438 to 0972, the deficit in the United States exceeded $80 billion. Because of the privilege of linking the dollar to gold decided by the Bretton Woods system, the United States can pay the deficit in dollars. Therefore, most of the $80 billion balance of payments deficit constitutes short-term debt in dollars, and a large amount of dollars flows into the hands of foreign governments, enterprises and private individuals. Some countries exchanged their dollars for gold with the United States, which led to a large outflow of gold from the United States, so that the gold reserves of the United States at 1968 were not enough to pay 40% of overseas dollars. This situation made the United States finally decide to get rid of the constraint of gold on the dollar and implement the most thorough dollar standard. 1971August 15, the Nixon administration announced the implementation of the new economic policy, stopped the exchange of US dollars for gold, and increased the import surcharge by 10%. This shows that the basic principles of the Bretton Woods system have been shaken. Although the dollar is decoupled from gold, the world will still have to accept the dollar because no other hard currency can be used as the world currency. During the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar, as an international currency, not only enjoyed the benefits of international currency, but also assumed the responsibility of linking with gold, ensuring that the US dollar could be converted into gold at any time according to the agreed proportion. The collapse of the system means that the dollar has lost its legal status as an international quasi-public product, but its status as a world currency has not changed, which makes the dollar enjoy the benefits of an international currency, but cannot bear the corresponding responsibilities. Thus, mankind has entered the era of pure credit currency.
Second, the depreciation of the US dollar "the sound of the waves remains the same"
Demote! Demote! Demote! The dollar, once known as the "world currency", is depreciating. Since the United States announced the decoupling of the dollar from gold in the early 1970s, the dollar has experienced three rounds of depreciation. In the first round, from 1973 to 10, the real exchange rate (index) of the US dollar against all currencies fell by 2 1.9%. Among them, the real exchange rate (index) against major currencies decreased by 14.9%. The second round was from March 1985 to July 1995, and the above two indexes fell by 34.5% and 44% respectively. The third round started in early 2002. The depreciation of the US dollar since February 2002 was set against the background of the "9.11"attack in 2006,5438, and it was mainly a policy of "strengthening the US dollar verbally and weakening the US dollar in essence". Behind this is the multiple results of the US fiscal deficit, trade deficit and the decline in the status of the US dollar. First of all, since the bursting of the Internet bubbles of 200 1 and 9.1,the financial situation of the US government has turned into a deficit, and the proportion of fiscal deficit in GDP has climbed from 1.5% in 2002 to 3.6% in 2004. With the implementation of this year's tax reduction and tax rebate plan, American finance will deteriorate again, and the weak dollar strategy is the potential economic background to pass on the financial crisis. Second, the trade deficit of the United States is constantly expanding. During the period from 2002 to 2005, the average increase of the recurrent fiscal deficit in the United States was as high as 18.4%, so the United States had to loosen the money supply to support Japan's trade payment and military expenditure. From the long-term trend, the trend of the US dollar exchange rate has been downward. Finally, the weakness of the dollar is related to the rise of the euro exchange rate after 2002 and its becoming a real international hard currency. With the steady appreciation of the euro, the proportion of euro reserves in various countries rose from 19.7% in early 2002 to 25.6% in mid-2007. The proportion of US dollar reserves decreased from 65438+7 1% in 099 to 64%. These changes are also one of the reasons for the weakness of the US dollar in the past few years.
Figure 1 USD index chart (1980 till now) ①
In mid-2007, the US dollar index continued its downward trend since 200 1, and fell deeply again under the influence of the US economic recession and the subprime mortgage crisis. There are many reasons for the dollar's decline, but the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2007 is the direct cause of the dollar's recent sharp decline. The full name of subprime mortgage crisis is "subprime mortgage crisis", which is a financial crisis triggered by the turmoil in the American subprime mortgage market. In August 2007, a storm triggered by the bankruptcy of subprime lending institutions, the forced closure of investment funds and the violent fluctuation of the stock market swept through the major global financial markets such as the United States, the European Union and Japan. The main reasons for the subprime mortgage crisis are the continuous interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve against the US dollar and the recession of the US real estate market since 2005. At the same time, the subprime mortgage crisis has a great impact on the global economy. Some research reports show that the subprime mortgage crisis has slowed down the global economic growth. After 200 1, affected by the slowdown of American economic growth, especially the real estate market, which is the core indicator of CPI, continued to decline after 2005, and the US dollar continued to fall. As the world's major settlement currency, the US dollar once again encountered a crisis of confidence.
In 2007, the US dollar index showed a nearly vertical downward trend, and the important economic events of the US dollar in 2007 were reviewed. There are two main things, one is the subprime mortgage crisis mentioned earlier, and the other is the continuous interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2007. In 2007, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.5, 0.25 and 0.25 percentage points in September, 165438+ 10 and 65438+February respectively, and the adjusted interest rates were 4.75%, 4.5% and 4.25% respectively. After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the Federal Reserve regulated the economy by lowering interest rates, which is the direct reason for its continuous expansion and decline since August 2007. At the end of June, 2007, 5438+0 1, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government used a series of measures to curb the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, such as overnight repurchase and the agreement announced by Bush Sr. to freeze the subprime mortgage interest rate for five years. In June 5438+February 65438+February 2007, the Federal Reserve made joint efforts with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank to ease the liquidity pressure in the financial market, which will support the US dollar for some time to come.
"A ghost, the ghost of Soros, is wandering in Europe." Soros always seems to appear in people's most depressed moments. After the remark of "the worst financial crisis after World War II", Soros still insisted that the American and British economies would fall into recession when he attended the World Economic Forum in the Swiss town of Davos on June 23rd, 2008. The Times described: "In the worst days of the world stock market for many years, this remark is both timely and appropriate." At the World Economic Forum panel discussion, Soros said that the world does not want to accumulate dollars. "Financial markets really need a CEO ... The rest of the world doesn't want to accumulate dollars. The current crisis is the end of the era of using the US dollar as the world currency. We need a new CEO, not a Washington official. " He said. He also commented on the performance of the Federal Reserve, saying: "The central bank is out of control." His view was shared by some senior officials, who said that the Fed's interest rate cut of 75 basis points on June 22, 2008 was unexpected and seemed to be a panic move. "We have a market-friendly Fed, which may inject a lot of cash flow into the system, which will create another bubble economy for us." Stephen S. Roach, Asia director of American investment bank Morgan Stanley, said, "I'm a little worried. All they did yesterday was press the stop button of the alarm clock. (This is) excessive currency adjustment will only bring us from bubble to bubble and then to bubble. "
3. Is the dollar weak or strong?
197 1 year, US President Richard Nixon abolished the gold standard, which freed the Fed from the shackles of gold reserves on currency issuance, and the Fed began a long-term monetary expansion. With the US dollar's status as the world reserve currency, American monetary policy has increasingly become a tool of American financial hegemonism. With the alternation of weak dollar and strong dollar, we can always find that some countries and regions in the world will become victims. 1979, Paul Volcker became the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and began the era of strong dollar, which directly led to the debt crisis in Latin America in 1982. 1985 Japan and the United States signed the Plaza Agreement, which forced the yen to appreciate sharply against the US dollar, and Japan entered the bubble economy, which led to the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in 199 1 and the Japanese economy has not recovered yet. Clinton 1993 entered the White House and began to advocate a strong dollar. The US dollar entered the interest rate hike cycle at 1994. Unfortunately, Southeast Asian countries with rapid economic growth broke out as scheduled on 1997, and the Internet bubble in the United States burst in 2000. 200 1, George W. Bush entered the White House. In order to get rid of the economic recession caused by the bursting of the internet bubble, the United States began to cut interest rates on a large scale. The federal benchmark interest rate was lowered from 6.5% to 1%. Although the United States got rid of the economic recession caused by the bursting of the Internet bubble, it gave birth to a bigger real estate bubble. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve started the process of raising interest rates again, and the United States took the initiative to puncture the real estate bubble, and the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in April 2007. In September 2007, under the pressure of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States once again entered the interest rate reduction cycle, and the federal benchmark interest rate continued to drop rapidly, reaching 1% in June 2008, fueling the global commodity market. The prices of commodities such as gold, minerals, oil and grain have soared, and the bubble in the global commodity market has become bigger and bigger.
From the relationship between the trend of the US dollar and the world economic crisis, we can see that before 2000, every change of the US dollar was at the expense of the economic crisis of other countries, and the United States passed on the crisis, hit its competitors and gained benefits. However, since 2000, we have always shot ourselves in the foot, which also shows that the American economy is getting weaker and weaker. We often can't beat others, but we die first. First, the internet bubble burst, and then the subprime mortgage crisis. Will the next bubble in commodity market burst? This time, the period from interest rate reduction to interest rate increase to interest rate reduction is very short, and the interest rate increase during this period is more like intentional. The interest rate cut that began in September 2007 should not end so soon, and the weak dollar is more in line with the interests of the United States. First of all, the weak dollar is more in line with the interests of creditor countries, while the United States is the largest debtor country at present, and both the country and American families bear huge debts, so the weak dollar is conducive to reducing the debt burden; Secondly, the commodity market bubble caused by the weak dollar is in the interest of the United States, the largest food exporter. Because American consumption accounts for about 70% of the total American economy, and manufacturing accounts for a small proportion of the economy, the high price of bulk raw materials has little effect on it. Although high oil prices are not good for the United States, the United States has the largest oil company in the world, and the United States prohibits the exploitation of its domestic oil. High oil prices have also enhanced the value of its unexploited oil fields. Third, maintaining a weak dollar will accelerate the flow of dollars to emerging market countries such as China. The more dollars the rest of the world has, the greater the profits the United States will get from the depreciation of the dollar; Fourth, the change of US monetary policy is most likely to come from China. Although China's stock market plummeted, the national economy as a whole was not seriously hurt, and the strategic goal of the United States has not been achieved, so it will not retreat rashly. According to the above analysis, the weak dollar is an established national policy of the United States and a helpless choice of the United States. For example, the interest rate hike in 2004 triggered the subprime mortgage crisis and quickly entered the interest rate hike cycle again. If the commodity market collapses, the financial lifeline of the United States will be dealt a fatal blow in the case of serious injuries caused by the subprime mortgage crisis.
From the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States to the end of 2008 10, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate nine times in a row to prevent economic recession, which led to the continuous weakening of the US dollar. During this period, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other US government officials did not comment on the weakness of the dollar. Their monetary and fiscal policies mainly focused on saving the subprime mortgage crisis and preventing the economic downturn, and showed no concern about the weakening of the US dollar. But things have changed recently. On June 3, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke issued an unusual warning about the sharp decline of the dollar. On June 9, 2008, US President George W. Bush also took the initiative to mention the exchange rate of the US dollar, saying that the United States would be committed to maintaining a strong US dollar. On June 9, 2008, US Treasury Secretary Henry Merritt Paulson also said that the possibility of intervention to stabilize the exchange rate of the US dollar would not be ruled out. At the same time, Bernanke once again pointed out in his speech at the Boston Fed meeting on June 10, 2008 that the Fed will "resolutely resist" changes in long-term inflation expectations. For an instant, American policy seems to be moving in another direction. Why is there such a contrast in the attitude of the United States towards the dollar? Why did the United States turn to "unity" with the dollar? In fact, US President George W. Bush has pointed out sharply that a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States. Lu Qianjin (2008) believes that there are several main reasons: First, the weakening of the US dollar and the sharp rise in global commodity prices denominated in US dollars will not only affect the economies of other oil importing countries, but also affect the US economy itself, which will lead to inflationary pressures and inflation expectations in the United States, because the United States is the world's largest oil consumer, and a stronger US dollar will also help alleviate inflation in the United States. Second, the weakening of the dollar will affect the international status of the dollar and its function as a reserve currency. As an international reserve currency, currency must be stable and firm, and can preserve and increase its value. A continuously weakening currency is not conducive to being a reserve currency. The weakening of the dollar has led more countries to adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves, increase their holdings of euros and reduce their holdings of dollars. It should be said that the fluctuation and weakening of the value of the US dollar have brought opportunities to the euro and challenged the status of the US dollar as an international reserve currency. Third, there is strong opposition from other countries, especially the holders of US dollar reserves. The depreciation of the US dollar has led to global inflationary pressure and reduced the wealth of foreign exchange assets held by US dollar reserve countries.
In fact, the weak dollar and the strong dollar are more determined by the economic situation of the United States. When the economy has problems, a weak dollar is more beneficial to the American economy. However, when the economy improved, the United States returned to the track of supporting a strong dollar, which in itself is in line with the interests of the United States, but the United States needs to weigh it according to the actual economic situation. Although both US President Bush and Treasury Secretary claimed that "a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States", in fact, the Bush administration never wanted the dollar to strengthen, nor did it indicate that it would stop the dollar from depreciating. Instead, it adopted a laissez-faire strategy. The United States has repeatedly prevented the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven from discussing ways to support the dollar. At present, the weak dollar is in the best interests of the United States, because the depreciation of the dollar has brought many benefits to the American economy: correcting trade imbalances, promoting economic growth, and enhancing the international competitiveness of American products and enterprises. The depreciation of the dollar is also a common way for the United States to transfer the crisis to other countries and restrict the normal development of other competitors. In 1980s, the United States forced the yen to appreciate, which triggered the expansion of Japan's economic bubble and eventually burst. At present, the United States is using the "weak dollar" policy to export recession to the world. The main targets of this round of dollar depreciation are euro and RMB. If you still hold dollars, you'd better calm down and reflect first, and don't be misled by the fictional strong dollar policy, because the so-called strong dollar is as absurd as the captain standing on a sinking ship shouting "The ship will never sink".