2. The output of austenitic stainless steel in each region accounts for more than half of the total local stainless steel output. Some countries even reach more than 80%. For example, in 20 19, the output of austenitic stainless steel in South Korea accounted for about 86%, and the austenite in Chinese mainland accounted for nearly 80% (Figure 6). It can be said that the production of austenitic stainless steel directly drives the demand for nickel.
3. The proportion of austenite waste in the world has changed greatly. Before 2008, the proportion of waste used in austenitic stainless steel in the world was about 46%. However, since 2008, the proportion of austenitic stainless steel waste in the world has dropped sharply, and now it is about 37%. The main reason is that the output of stainless steel in China increased rapidly after 2008, but the supply of waste stainless steel in China was insufficient in the early stage, and a large number of ferronickel was used in stainless steel processing plants to produce stainless steel, which led to a sharp decline in the proportion of waste used in the production of austenitic stainless steel in China. Generally speaking, the recycling of waste stainless steel in China is still at a low level. Specific data show that the scrap rate of stainless steel in the United States is 60%-80%, that in Europe is 60%-95%, that in Japan is 60%-85%, and that in China is only 20%-40%. The proportion of garbage used in China directly lowers the proportion of garbage used in the world.
4. In the future, with the increasing supply of waste stainless steel in China, the proportion of waste stainless steel in China is expected to further increase, thus driving the proportion of waste austenitic stainless steel in the world to rise continuously. According to WM's estimation, the proportion of global austenitic stainless steel waste is expected to rise to about 43% in 2030.
Usually, waste stainless steel is recovered from self-produced waste, abandoned products and demolished buildings in the process of stainless steel production. From this point of view, the output of waste stainless steel is closely related to stainless steel consumption countries or high-income countries (high-income countries will consume more stainless steel and produce more waste after products are scrapped). The import of waste stainless steel is highly related to a country's stainless steel output. In addition, some countries act as traders, importing raw materials and then exporting them.
6. Asia is a net importer of waste stainless steel. India is the largest importer of waste stainless steel in Asia. It only produces a small amount of nickel, so it is highly dependent on nickel imports. Domestic waste stainless steel is not enough to meet their own needs. In recent years, the import of waste stainless steel has continued to grow. In 20 19, the net import of waste stainless steel was13.22 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. The utilization rate of waste stainless steel in Chinese mainland is still relatively low, but the consumption has been increasing. Specifically, China's net import volume decreased by 25% in 20 18, and then decreased by 59.6% to 74,000 tons in 20 19. At present, the waste stainless steel in Chinese mainland is mainly imported from China (73%), Canada (12%) and Belgium (4%). The share of imports from the United States decreased from 23% in 20 18 to 3% in 20 19.
7. The national industrial policy has great influence on the development of stainless steel industry and the recovery of waste nickel. Affected by China's policy of importing waste stainless steel, in 20 19, China imported only 74,000 tons of scrap steel, which was almost negligible compared with the output of 29.4 million tons of stainless steel. At present, China has completely banned the import of waste stainless steel. In the future, stainless steel factories in China will mainly use domestic waste stainless steel.
8. Nickel-containing stainless steels mainly include 200 series and 300 series stainless steels. In the recycling process, the waste 200 series and 300 series stainless steels are reused and processed into new austenitic stainless steels. Due to the lack of specific data of waste stainless steel, we can calculate the amount of nickel-containing waste stainless steel in that year by the proportion of waste austenitic stainless steel, and then multiply it by the average nickel-containing grade of waste stainless steel in that year to roughly estimate the nickel recovered from waste stainless steel in that year.
9. Through the above measures, we can see that after the global financial crisis in 2008-09, the nickel recovered from stainless steel is on the rise. About 9 1. 1.3 million tons of waste stainless steel nickel were recovered in 19, which was 47.49% higher than that in 20 10. In the future, with the increase of waste stainless steel production, more and more nickel will be recovered through waste stainless steel.
10. According to our calculation, from 2008 to 18, the amount of nickel recovered from waste stainless steel in Chinese mainland increased year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 22.95%. In 20 19, about 278,500 tons of nickel were recovered by recycling waste stainless steel. It decreased by 5. 18% compared with the same period of last year. This is related to China's policy of completely banning the import of waste stainless steel from July 20 19/day. However, we should also see that the policy of completely banning the import of waste stainless steel has little effect on the absolute amount of nickel recovery in China, which is mainly due to the rapid development of domestic waste stainless steel industry and the increase in the supply of waste stainless steel.
Judging from the proportion of nickel recovered from waste stainless steel, the proportion of nickel recovered from waste stainless steel in China is increasing all over the world, accounting for about one third at present.
1 1. Through this imprecise model, it is roughly estimated that the high probability of nickel utilization and waste in stainless steel industry is about 1 10,000, and the waste ratio is about 37-40%, which is an order of magnitude that cannot be ignored. We can also confirm the magnitude from the predicted data of WM:17-19,97.8, 109,10.034 million tons. At present, the research and attention on this aspect in the market is slightly insufficient, which deserves our further study.
1. How is nickel recovered?
Nickel mainly exists in the form of oxides, sulfides and silicates in nature. Nickel is the fifth most common element on the earth, with the highest content in the core and the lowest content in the crust. About 33 countries in all continents mine nickel ore, and about 30 countries smelt or refine nickel ore. Nickel is used in more than 300,000 products in the form of more than 3,000 alloys. The main nickel-containing materials include stainless steel, super alloys, low expansion magnetic alloy and shape memory alloy, alloy steel, cast iron and casting alloy, copper alloy, pure nickel and other alloys, electroplating and electroforming, and nickel chemicals (see figure 1).
In many applications, nickel can be easily recovered, and a large amount of secondary nickel or "waste" nickel becomes a supplement to the supply of nickel ore.
Nickel is used in various types of batteries, including Ni-Cd, Ni-MH, Ni-Fe, Ni-Zn, Ni-MH and Li-ion batteries, which are all named after their active materials. Due to the high recyclability of nickel, it is expected that the use of nickel in batteries will continue to increase. In addition, some nickel-containing materials, such as waste nickel catalyst, will also be returned to the nickel smelter for re-smelting.
In the process of recovering nickel, most of it is not recovered in the form of nickel. The consumption of stainless steel accounts for about two-thirds of the global nickel consumption, and it is the largest consumption field of nickel. According to the statistics of International Nickel Industry Research Organization (INSG), in 20 19, nickel used in stainless steel accounted for 67% of the total nickel consumption in the world (see Figure 2). From the point of view of environmental protection and commerce, melting waste stainless steel into new stainless steel with unchanged characteristics is the most commonly used and absolutely dominant way to recover nickel. Due to the rapid development of stainless steel industry, the potential waste stainless steel market is huge.
At present, from the downstream consumption classification and prospect industry of nickel, nickel recovery mainly considers two industries: power battery (although not mainstream consumption) and waste stainless steel. Generally speaking, nickel recovered from power batteries is used to process power batteries, while waste stainless steel is directly melted to process new stainless steel. Therefore, the recovery of nickel from waste stainless steel and power battery was studied in this paper.
Second, the global status of waste stainless steel industry
2. 1 The global stainless steel production is constantly expanding, and the waste stainless steel market is broad.
Using waste stainless steel to produce stainless steel can not only save energy and protect the environment, but also reduce the investment of nickel alloy and chromium alloy and reduce the production cost of stainless steel. In the process of stainless steel processing, steel mills will decide the proportion of waste stainless steel and ferronickel as processing raw materials according to the cost performance of ferronickel and waste stainless steel. There is an obvious competitive substitution relationship between waste stainless steel and primary ferronickel. Because waste stainless steel is finally used in steel mills, the output of stainless steel determines the demand for waste stainless steel now and also affects the output of waste stainless steel in the future. Therefore, the output of stainless steel should be defined first.
Except for the two-year economic contraction caused by the global economic crisis in 2008, the global stainless steel is on the rise. In 20 19, the global stainless steel output reached 52.22 million tons. The recycling of waste stainless steel in the future is of great significance in environmental protection and resources.
Judging from the output of stainless steel in different regions, the output of stainless steel in China is growing very fast. By 20 19, China's stainless steel output will reach 29.4 million tons. The output of stainless steel in other areas is basically stable. In recent years, the output of stainless steel in India has also increased, but there is still a big gap compared with that in China (Figure 3).
In 200 1 year, the stainless steel produced in Chinese mainland only accounted for 3.8% of the global stainless steel production, and it rose to 18.45% in 2006. After the economic crisis in 2008, the developed economies suffered a huge impact, and the stainless steel output dropped sharply in 2009, while the stainless steel output in China continued to grow at a high speed due to the fiscal stimulus policy of that year. By 20 19, it will account for 56.3% of the global stainless steel production.
The sharp increase in global stainless steel production will also lead to a gradual increase in the supply of waste stainless steel in the future. The recovery of nickel is mainly reflected in the recovery of austenitic waste stainless steel. Let's look at the output and waste of austenitic stainless steel.
2.2 Production and abandonment of austenitic stainless steel
Stainless steel industry is the largest user of raw nickel and waste nickel. Stainless steel can be divided into five types according to its metal structure: austenitic stainless steel, ferritic stainless steel, austenitic-ferritic (duplex) stainless steel, martensitic stainless steel and precipitation hardening stainless steel. In addition, it can be divided into Cr-Mn-Ni series (200 series), Cr-Ni series (300 series), Cr series (400 series), heat-resistant Cr-alloy steel (500 series) and precipitation hardening series (600 series) stainless steel.
Nickel-containing stainless steel, also known as austenitic stainless steel (200 series contains 1-3% nickel series and 300 series contains 8-9% nickel). The future target of stainless steel listed in the last issue is 300 series austenitic stainless steel. In terms of output and nickel content, recycling 300 series waste stainless steel is the main way to recycle nickel resources. Stainless steel is widely used in the market to make building components, decorative parts, vehicle structures, guardrails, parts and shells of household appliances, newsstands, telephone booths, catering utensils, medical equipment and so on. Mainly austenitic stainless steel. Coupled with a large number of industrial applications, austenitic stainless steel accounts for the largest proportion of stainless steel production in various countries. Globally, the output (or consumption) of austenitic stainless steel accounts for about 75% of the total output (or consumption) of stainless steel.
By region, the output of austenitic stainless steel in each region accounts for more than half of the total local stainless steel output. Some countries even reach more than 80%. For example, in 20 19, the output of austenitic stainless steel in South Korea accounted for about 86%, and the austenite in Chinese mainland accounted for nearly 80% (Figure 6). It can be said that the production of austenitic stainless steel directly drives the demand for nickel.
The proportion of austenite waste in the world has changed greatly. Before 2008, the proportion of waste used in austenitic stainless steel in the world was about 46%. However, since 2008, the proportion of austenitic stainless steel waste in the world has dropped sharply, and now it is about 37%. The main reason is that the output of stainless steel in China increased rapidly after 2008, but the supply of waste stainless steel in China was insufficient in the early stage, and a large number of ferronickel was used in stainless steel processing plants to produce stainless steel, which led to a sharp decline in the proportion of waste used in the production of austenitic stainless steel in China. Generally speaking, the recycling of waste stainless steel in China is still at a low level.
Specific data show that the scrap rate of stainless steel in the United States is 60%-80%, that in Europe is 60%-95%, that in Japan is 60%-85%, and that in China is only 20%-40%. The proportion of garbage used in China directly lowers the proportion of garbage used in the world. In the future, with the increasing supply of waste stainless steel in China, the proportion of waste stainless steel in China is expected to further increase, which will drive the proportion of waste austenitic stainless steel in the world to rise continuously. According to WM's estimation, the proportion of global austenitic stainless steel waste is expected to rise to about 43% in 2030.
2.3 World trade of waste stainless steel
Usually, waste stainless steel is recovered from self-produced waste, abandoned products and demolished buildings in the process of stainless steel production. From this point of view, the output of waste stainless steel is closely related to stainless steel consumption countries or high-income countries (high-income countries will consume more stainless steel and produce more waste after products are scrapped). The import of waste stainless steel is highly related to a country's stainless steel output. In addition, some countries act as traders, importing raw materials and then exporting them.
Figure 9 shows the global net trade of waste stainless steel in 20 19 years. Different degrees of green represent imports, and the deeper the green, the more net imports. Different degrees of red represent the export volume, and the deeper the red represents the more net exports.
The United States is a net exporter of stainless steel, and Brazil, Mexico, the United States and Canada are all net exporters of waste stainless steel. Among them, the United States produces, consumes and exports a large number of waste stainless steel, which is the most important country for stainless steel production and trade.
Europe is both a net importer and a net exporter of waste stainless steel. As a whole, the EU is a net exporter of waste stainless steel. The net export volume of waste stainless steel in this area increased from 52,000 tons in 2065,438+08 to 250,000 tons in 2065,438+09. Most of Europe's trade is domestic. It is estimated that in 20 19, 88% of EU countries' imports came from other EU countries, and 82% of their export destinations were other EU countries.
South Africa and Australia are the countries with the largest trade volume of waste stainless steel in Africa and Oceania. South Africa is a net importer and Australia is a net exporter.
Generally speaking, Asia is a net importer of waste stainless steel. India is the largest importer of waste stainless steel in Asia. It only produces a small amount of nickel, so it is highly dependent on nickel imports. Domestic waste stainless steel is not enough to meet their own needs. In recent years, the import of waste stainless steel has continued to grow.
In 20 19, the net import of waste stainless steel was13.22 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. The utilization rate of waste stainless steel in Chinese mainland is still relatively low, but the consumption has been increasing. Specifically, China's net import volume decreased by 25% in 20 18, and then decreased by 59.6% to 74,000 tons in 20 19. At present, the waste stainless steel in Chinese mainland is mainly imported from China (73%), Canada (12%) and Belgium (4%). The share of imports from the United States decreased from 23% in 20 18 to 3% in 20 19. See figure 10 for the import and export quantity of waste stainless steel.
2.4 Estimation of Waste Stainless Steel Output
In the production process of stainless steel, every link from ingot/billet to finished product will basically produce waste. Excellent talents will produce waste when peeling, punching, cutting and cutting, and flat materials will also produce waste when trimming, punching and cutting. These wastes are usually called self-produced wastes and processing wastes.
By considering the production and scrap of stainless steel in different consumption fields and combining the production ratio of different consumption fields, the weighted average output and scrap rate of stainless steel in the processing and production process can be obtained. According to the statistical results of Fu Bao Information, the weighted average rejection rate of stainless steel during production and processing is about 6.8%.
Weng Yuqing, academician of China Academy of Engineering and chairman of China Metal Association, put forward a prediction model of waste stainless steel output.
Three, China waste stainless steel industry policy
The national industrial policy has great influence on the development of stainless steel industry and the recovery of waste nickel. Affected by China's policy of importing waste stainless steel, in 20 19, China imported only 74,000 tons of scrap steel, which was almost negligible compared with the output of 29.4 million tons of stainless steel. At present, China has completely banned the import of waste stainless steel. In the future, stainless steel factories in China will mainly use domestic waste stainless steel. The following is a review of China's waste stainless steel industry policies.
From the perspective of national industrial policy, the state is mainly committed to promoting the comprehensive utilization of scrap iron and steel resources, strengthening the management of scrap iron and steel processing industry, standardizing the production and operation behavior of scrap iron and steel processing industry, actively promoting the connection between supply and demand of scrap iron and steel, improving the deep processing level and processing quality of scrap iron and steel, strengthening the scale and modernization of scrap iron and steel industry, optimizing resource allocation, realizing the charging of concentrate into the furnace, and promoting the scientific, healthy and sustainable development of scrap iron and steel processing industry.
4. Recover waste stainless steel and recover nickel.
4. 1 estimation of nickel content in waste stainless steel recovered worldwide
Nickel-containing stainless steel mainly includes 200 series and 300 series stainless steel. In the recycling process, the waste 200 series and 300 series stainless steels are reused and processed into new austenitic stainless steels. Due to the lack of specific data of waste stainless steel, we can calculate the amount of nickel-containing waste stainless steel in that year by the proportion of waste austenitic stainless steel, and then multiply it by the average nickel-containing grade of waste stainless steel in that year to roughly estimate the nickel recovered from waste stainless steel in that year.
The calculation method of the average nickel grade of austenitic waste stainless steel in that year is as follows:
Since 200 series stainless steel is mainly produced in China, and the average nickel content of 200 series stainless steel in China is low, we set it as 1.5%. The average nickel grade of 200 series stainless steel in other regions is about 2%. The average nickel content of 200 series stainless steel in the world every year is obtained by weighted average.
Then, according to the proportion of global 200 series and 300 series output, the weighted average nickel grade of global stainless steel is estimated. Nickel grade of 300 series stainless steel is estimated as 8%. The specific method is as follows:
The estimation method of nickel recovery from waste stainless steel in that year is as follows:
Through the above measures, we can see that nickel recovered from stainless steel is on the rise after the global financial crisis in 2008-09. About 9 1. 1.3 million tons of waste stainless steel nickel were recovered in 19, which was 47.49% higher than that in 20 10. In the future, with the increase of waste stainless steel production, more and more nickel will be recovered through waste stainless steel.
4.2 Estimation of Nickel Content in Waste Stainless Steel Recovered in Chinese mainland
By the same method, the nickel content in waste stainless steel for austenite in China can be obtained. The difference is that we use 1.5% to replace the nickel grade of domestic 200 series waste stainless steel.
According to our calculation, from 2008 to 65438+2008, the amount of nickel recovered from waste stainless steel in Chinese mainland increased year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 22.95%. In 20 19, about 278,500 tons of nickel were recovered by recycling waste stainless steel. It decreased by 5. 18% compared with the same period of last year. This is related to China's policy of completely banning the import of waste stainless steel from July 20 19/day. However, we should also see that the policy of completely banning the import of waste stainless steel has little effect on the absolute amount of nickel recovery in China, which is mainly due to the rapid development of domestic waste stainless steel industry and the increase in the supply of waste stainless steel.
Judging from the proportion of nickel recovered from waste stainless steel, the proportion of nickel recovered from waste stainless steel in China is increasing all over the world, accounting for about one third at present.
Based on this imprecise model, it is roughly estimated that the current utilization and waste of nickel in the stainless steel industry with high probability is about 6.5438+0 million, and the waste ratio is about 37-40%, which is an order of magnitude that cannot be ignored. We can also confirm the magnitude from the predicted data of WM:17-19,97.8, 109,10.034 million tons. At present, the research and attention on this aspect in the market is slightly insufficient, which deserves our further study.