The so-called security strategy is to study how to make investment invincible. On the security issue, we need not only general defense when risks occur, but also active prevention when risks have not yet occurred. This requires us to cultivate and have the ability to predict and perceive risks, as well as the most important control ability.
The purpose of security strategy: to escort investment, sail in the right direction and reach the other side.
As far as the whole process of futures investment operation is concerned, the security strategy should cover three aspects: (1) security defense before trading-when investors draw up; (2) security and defense during the transaction-during the implementation of the investment plan; And (3) exit the transaction-how to leave safely and actively.
As far as security is concerned, we must establish the following concepts: objective market comes first, subjective judgment comes second, and the standard for judging whether decisions and transactions are correct is the realistic performance of the market; At the same time, the market is perfect and objective, while people's understanding is limited, one-sided and subjective. Obviously, there is always a gap between objective facts and subjective cognition, which determines the inevitability and regularity of investors' mistakes.
Therefore, we must acknowledge and face up to the existence of the following facts:
(1) There are things in the market that we don't know or can't identify;
(2) There are hidden but not fully revealed factors or unexpected events;
(3) We underestimated the impact of what is happening;
(4) made opposite judgments about the understanding of things and the reaction of the market;
5) The reverse kinetic energy contained in the market itself due to excessive distortion;
[6] Abnormal market price caused by human manipulation.
First, before the transaction
1, rest and wait
Rest and waiting are a positive defensive state. Many investors don't understand its inner meaning: the defense cost of inaction is the lowest among all security measures. We didn't do anything because: (1) we had a mental and physical rest and ended the transaction; (2) there is no big market, or it is impossible to judge the market; (3) The evolution of the market has entered a dangerous zone; (4) Waiting time before the implementation of the strategic plan.
The capital equity curve is similar to the fluctuation pattern of price. It is not difficult for many people to increase their capital in stages, but it is not easy to avoid a sharp decline in equity. However, only by avoiding the withdrawal of funds can we realize the appreciation of capital and achieve the compound interest effect of capital rolling. "Doing nothing" may be the best way, which is a kind of abandonment and a manifestation of obedience and respect for the objective market. It can be seen that learning to rest and wait is an important part of determining whether the investment can win.
We need to understand that the market is the protagonist in market changes, and the performance of investors is only an insignificant supporting role. We should leave enough time and space for the market, instead of being busy by ourselves; Wait for the market to give a clear direction, otherwise, the lively ending can only be empty.
The crux of the problem is: Why are people always busy? This is the result of desire. When people focus on money instead of the market and themselves, they always imagine the market happening, hoping to seize it instead of losing it. We believe that it is good to be able to tap the market with investment value, but it is more important to find that there is no market or admit that you can't understand the market. Because only by recognizing this, can we understand the value of rest and waiting.
There is a saying in Sun Tzu's Art of War: "If the road does not help, the army does not attack, the city does not attack, and the ground does not fight, your life will not be affected." The reason for inaction is to serve the big strategic plan for safety, rather than blindly under the immediate small profits or inducements.
Step 2 choose the market
First, we need to choose and restrict market operations. This is because not all markets are suitable for investment. From the perspective of security, investors should stay away from such risky markets: (1) markets with uncontrollable risks despite huge market conditions; (two) the market with obvious signs of human manipulation, which leads to difficulties in analysis; (3) a market with small positions, clear transactions and inability to be active in the short term; (4) Markets that are not protected by law, have imperfect rules and regulations or have the integrity of the exchange questioned.
Risk prevention is not only when the risk occurs, but also when the risk does not occur. The advantage of doing this is that it does not increase the extra risk burden, so that investors can concentrate on the price fluctuation itself more than others. Some people will say: just make money anyway. However, countless facts have proved that a bad investment environment will not have good results after all; Just like the bad weather, even the best farm work is futile anyway.
Blind investment often leads to disaster, and only by restricting freedom of behavior can we get real freedom. To sum up here, the policy of "choosing the market" is: ups and downs analysis, controllable risks, operational transactions, and the market must be honest, fair and standardized.
3. Strategic assessment
The right action comes from the right idea, and the right transaction depends on the correct judgment of the market. Obviously, the security of investment must be related to the correctness of market analysis. The higher the analysis accuracy, the greater the possibility of investment profit; On the contrary, the loss will be inevitable. Here, we advocate the idea of "winning if you want to fight", that is, winning every battle. Just as the army advocates "don't fight uncertain battles"; Another example is the "total victory thought" that runs through Sun Tzu's Art of War.
The basis of "total victory" lies in a good grasp of the future development direction and objectives of the market, and the core task of market strategy evaluation is exactly the same. There is a saying: If I had known three days earlier, I would have been rich for a thousand years earlier. It can be seen that investors should have insight and foresight. When we have a sufficient basis for judging the fundamentals of the future, we will have a macro grasp of the positioning of the market in the future time and space, and we will become "people from the future." In this way, we are ready for thinking and action, which is about what must happen in the future in today's market.
Arbitrage in the futures market is considered as an investment model with limited risks, while pure speculation is considered as an investment behavior with great risks. In fact, pure speculation is also a broader arbitrage behavior, which is an arbitrage for the present and the future. When we "see" the future of the market, this high-risk speculation will be transformed into "arbitrage" investment, and the huge price difference between now and the future is the source of making money. In this way, the realization of the concept of total victory will not be empty talk, and investors will have the belief of winning before the transaction takes place.
The task of market evaluation is:
(1) Future evolution trend and possible target time and space of the market;
(2) The unfavorable factors in the current market and the countermeasures;
(3) the level and current trend of the current market area;
(4) Whether it has investment value and risk-return assessment.
Many people have such a misunderstanding that if they want to get more income, they need to take more risks; But we can't deny that there are strategic opportunities with limited risks and huge profit margins. This is the main task of market evaluation, and at the same time, we should abandon any so-called opportunities where risks and benefits are not commensurate.
Evaluation can't replace decision-making, and whether the analysis results can be transformed into operational eucalyptus depends mainly on our grasp of the market and the principles of doing things. Here, we advocate only making an easy market, choosing some primary school topics of "addition, subtraction, multiplication and division" and leaving "complex advanced mathematics" in the market. As Sun Tzu's Art of War said: The so-called good fighter in ancient times is better than the easy winner.
Step 4 bide your time
After comprehensive evaluation, when choosing a certain variety as the target of strategic investment, waiting for the time to be ripe will be the primary task. Because the futures market implements the margin system, which makes the price fluctuation look more intense than other markets, it is particularly important to grasp the timing. Although the timing problem is partial and tactical, a good intervention area is a powerful guarantee for running strategic defense and enhancing confidence in holding positions, and it is also an important step for the effective implementation of the whole investment plan.
The timing should be chosen from the perspective of safety and easy prevention, otherwise the investment opportunity will fall into a greedy situation intentionally or unintentionally. The so-called easy-to-keep means that even if there is an error in the general direction, the positions that enter the market can exit the market without losing money.
A good approach area is like a military "base", which can be attacked or retreated. So, how to determine the "base" in futures trading? This can be grasped through two aspects: (1) mainly through technical forms and other means; ⑵ Comprehensive evaluation of the positive and negative basic information of the market. Therefore, the purpose of seeking and waiting for market maturity through the judgment of market appearance characteristics and contradictions is to wait for the situation of limited risk and hidden huge income-this is the real connotation of investment.
There is a famous military saying: "Lure the enemy into depth, concentrate superior forces and fight a war of annihilation." He explained "luring the enemy deep" in this way: this is the most effective military policy for weak forces to confront strong forces in strategic defense. This is not fear and escape, but an active defense strategy. Similarly, we must admit that any investor is weak in the face of the market, especially under the leverage of futures. Therefore, the best time to grasp is when the market rebounds and adjusts, and when its real trend is revealed (the principle of the general trend); When the market breaks out, it is a good time to increase the price. When the general direction is determined, the more dangerous the place looks, the safer it is, while the seemingly safe place is often not safe.
As for the timing, there is a saying in the military that "the enemy is tired and I will fight" and "avoid its spirit and fight to the ground." A famous campaign example of defeating the strong with the weak-the battle of Qilu in the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. Cao Gui's explanation of the war situation is: "Up in the air, then down, three points tired. I am exhausted and I am profitable, so I have to overcome it. " Among them, "three exhaust" is the focus of the fighter plane, which is translated into futures language: at the beginning of the formation of a new trend after the end of the original trend, or when it returns to the original trend after adjustment. In this way, the establishment of the market direction makes the positions that are convenient to establish safer and more stable-the powerful driving force of the market is the truly powerful guard.
Second, in the transaction.
1, the overall policy of futures operation
The two-way trading in the futures market gives investors great freedom, so some people hope to grasp the positive and negative markets through accurate analysis. However, what we actually see is this: when he tried to straighten the fluctuation curve, the market "straightened" his funds. The deep-seated reason for this phenomenon is that people's ability is limited, while the market is strong and unpredictable in a sense. Market analysis is the basis of decision-making and operation, but not all of them, even correct analysis, can be transformed into trading behavior. In order to avoid risks and disasters, our operations must follow certain safety principles, that is, follow the trend.
Homeopathy trading is supported by its mathematical probability. After research and practice, our conclusion is that the profit margin of band homeopathic operation is greater than 75%; (2) If you intervene in the market from the perspective of strategic investment, the profit can reach 95%; ⑶ From the perspective of technical analysis alone, the probability of grasping the top and bottom is less than 1%. In fact, if you look at the unique phenomenon of the domestic securities market, you will understand that most people make money when they go up, but almost all the people involved are losing money when they bear the bear-this is related to the restriction that they can only do more in their trading rules.
In thinking and behavior, strategic investors must conform to the general trend, and contrarian operation must be the embodiment of short-sightedness and speculation. Time means extinction and destruction for contrarian trading; Its small probability nature determines the inevitability of this investment failure, regardless of personal wisdom. The ancients said: the general trend is beyond human power. Therefore, investors must abandon any thoughts and behaviors that go against the trend. Another example is that Mencius once said: "Although you are wise, it is better to follow the trend." We should understand that freedom only exists in truth, just as fish can't leave water. If freedom of movement is restricted, there will be money growth. The necessary conditions for becoming a natural winner are: to be a homeopathic trader and a strategic investor!
To sum up, the general principle of futures operation is: macro homeopathy, micro contrarian.
2. The survival rules of futures trading.
Many people come to the futures market with wisdom, but they take away losses and regrets. What is the reason for this? Personal wisdom. People's intelligence is pale in front of the market, so we should put our position right: the market is the first, and people's subjective judgment is the second; Whether decisions and transactions are correct is determined by the market. From this, we can avoid heavy losses once and for all by recognizing our own limitations and the vastness of the market.
What is the law of survival? Stop loss unconditionally at the first time, always insist on it, and don't take any chances.
The role of margin leverage makes price fluctuations artificially amplified, and the limitation of contract expiration makes it impossible to hold positions forever. When the position direction runs counter to the market movement, the price of time will become more and more expensive; In the case of unfavorable trading, if you don't take correct actions in time, you will often face the following scenarios: (1) The invested margin has just been broken; (2) The book profit may be completely lost; (3) All capital will face a disastrous outcome because of contrarian trend.
It can be seen that if you want to survive, you must learn to stop loss. Stop loss should be considered and set when the trading party eucalyptus is produced, and should be tracked and promoted in some way during the trading process. The width of the stop loss is related to personal circumstances, but it mainly matches the normal fluctuation range of the market, and sometimes certain time conditions are attached. As a long-term trader, the size of the stop loss should be able to withstand daily price fluctuations and avoid touching the stop loss frequently, so as to ensure that the operation plan can run effectively under the premise of correct decision.
Stop loss is giving up. Giving up may be an opportunity, but it is more likely to be a disaster. Stop loss has three advantages: (1) Incorrect entry timing. This does not confirm whether we made a directional mistake when we decided to leave, but we must choose to leave. On the one hand, avoid the possibility of major mistakes; On the other hand, in order to find a safer and better supply opportunity again. (2) directional judgment error. In the case of contrarian, if it fails to appear in time, then time and leverage will pose a fatal blow to the transaction! The only way to avoid this situation is to stop loss in time. (3) Get out of trouble. If you are stopped three times in a row, there must be something wrong. At this time, investors should put aside any market and take a break to avoid falling into a dead end and swamp. Being far away from the market helps to clear your mind and find problems, otherwise luck will be far away and disasters will continue.
It is a common problem for many people to value immediate interests without making up their minds to stop losses; However, if investors are full of confidence in the future, the current difficulties will become insignificant; Because time will bring wealth to successful investors. Loss is temporary, necessary and an inseparable part of success. Giving up money temporarily is to save financial strength and to get more and better returns in the future. It can be seen that stop loss is the way to survive, the "pilot's parachute" and the embodiment of the market first principle.
3. Fund management strategy
The adjustment of margin is the freedom given to investors by the futures market. This free choice of authority will bring the most direct and full exposure of human nature-people always have a strong tendency to use sufficient margin. Futures is not an ordinary financial instrument, and its leverage is like "nuclear finance". Therefore, a high proportion of margin use will cause huge fluctuations in investment profits and losses-both capital explosion and rapid destruction. This abnormal phenomenon is driven by the devil, which is not the correct investment method, and its final outcome is eliminated by the market without exception. There is an analogy to illustrate: if the car is driving on the expressway at the speed of 120 yards, if it is safe and comfortable, then the probability of accidents will increase exponentially with each increase of 10 yards; When the vehicle speed reaches more than 220 yards, the possibility of an accident increases to 100% regardless of driving skills.
From this perspective, freedom is not all good. As far as fund management is concerned, there should be a statistical balance between freedom and security. Practical experience shows that when the capital utilization rate reaches 30%, it is most suitable for futures trading. Although the investor's technical level can appropriately adjust this ratio, the utilization rate of 30% is the benchmark principle of fund management. In actual trading, we should establish the idea of "safety first, profit second", and make sure that (1) the overall trading position should be appropriate, and it is best not to worry; (2) Use funds in batches to reduce the overall risk of funds; (3) If it is necessary to overweight, we must adhere to the premise that the first position has been profitable; (4) Set the maximum order amount and put an end to any excessive ideas. If you can make 10 orders, you might as well make 7 orders, and don't act like you have a grudge against the market; 5] At the outbreak point of the market, the single quantity can be moderately enlarged, but the premise is that the closing of the day is conducive to holding positions.
It can be said that the fund management is a concentrated reflection of the inner world of traders. Good fund management helps investors to maintain a harmonious relationship with the market, helps traders to give full play to their own level, and helps to improve the quality rather than quantity of transactions. In fact, investment is just a seed, and it doesn't need much. All we have to do is wait patiently-take root, sprout, blossom and bear rich fruits. However, in practice, the most common mistake we make is to be eager for quick success-always trying to increase the investment in margin, hoping to achieve excellent results in a short time. This impetuous mentality, which leads to danger, fear and failure, has never left its side before being completely defeated. In fact, the secret of making money lies in time and mentality, and in investors' patience and sharing trends. The opening of space takes time, and time is the most critical factor.
4. Action strategy of futures operation.
Under the macro homeopathic policy, our task is to turn the idea of eucalyptus into practical action. However, planning is not equal to action, and there is a qualitative difference between conception and action. Although there are only two actions at work: entry and exit; But it reflects all the ideological connotations of investors. Whether the idea can be implemented depends on whether there is an expected favorable environment in the market; Retreat in the process of trading depends on whether there are unfavorable patterns and ominous signs.
Let's talk about entering the market first, just as there is always a gap between ideal and reality, the actual trend of market conditions is not always consistent with investment ideas. When this happens, the plan will be shelved or cancelled. Only when the market trend is consistent with the original idea can the investment plan be started. In other words, for the sake of safety, investment transactions can only be operated under the condition that fundamental analysis and technical performance are unified. Methods generally follow the principle of "being late"-imagine first, then act, so as to achieve the goal of giving consideration to both inside and outside. The advantages of this are:
(1) If the idea has not been verified by the market, and the market is still in an uncertain or reversed state, then the idea can only stay in the observation stage, and then you can't enter the market to trade, otherwise you will inevitably pay the price of premature intervention;
⑵ When the market begins to reveal the real trend, if it is consistent with the expected strategic direction, the probability of winning the entry transaction will be greatly improved under the condition of subjective and objective unity. As the martial arts say: first heart, then eyes, and finally hands. Early entry often leads to better prices, which is beneficial to hedging, but for pure speculation, it does not conform to the principles of safety and homeopathy, and it also violates the purpose of investment-to earn the difference rather than the price. Here we should establish the concept of trend (price difference) first and price second.
As far as exit is concerned, we have noticed the fact that any reversal begins with adjusting the evolution of the market, and any deep adjustment will make huge floating profits go up in smoke or even be a fiasco because of leverage effect. Many people have encountered such a situation: when our pockets are full of money, when we are full of hope for the future and the market performance is confused, although the unfavorable fundamentals have not appeared for the time being, they even performed well; However, the danger came quietly at this time, and the dream became a cruel reality. Therefore, when unfavorable situations or ominous omens appear, we should all be very vigilant and consider leaving in part or in whole. The question is how to predict the unfavorable situation. This requires tracking and evaluating the market operation to determine the current risk level.
The focus of the follow-up evaluation is: (1) What are the new favorable and unfavorable factors in the market? (2) Potential factors that have a significant impact on the future of the market; (3) Whether the main contradiction that dominates the market trend has changed, especially the qualitative change; (4) whether the external performance and technical indicators of the market indicate that the trend may be interrupted or reversed; 5] Refer to the historical market and the trend of related varieties to find out the area where the current market price is located. Then, according to the evaluation results, we decide whether to stay in the market or not.
The development of things always changes from quantitative change to qualitative change, and so does the evolution of market conditions. Therefore, when the contradictions that dominate the market accumulate to a certain extent, or some qualitative changes occur, then investors should consider withdrawing from the market. Appearing generally follows the principle of "leaving early"-early withdrawal is better than passive withdrawal. Excessive pursuit of profit maximization is easy for us to challenge the limits of the market and move towards greed; It is necessary to leave room and ignore the follow-up market with low marginal profit, so that investment can be invincible.
Third, exit the transaction.
1, phased risk avoidance
The development of things always presents a pattern of wave-like advancement and spiral rise. Similarly, the evolution characteristics of market prices are as follows: (1) From the form of expression, prices also show periodic ebb and flow, and there is always an orderly trend evolution in seemingly disorderly fluctuations; ⑵ From the changing state, the market always transits from the break of one equilibrium state to another new equilibrium state, which is endless. Therefore, its characteristics can be summarized as "stage, fluctuation and trend".
Accordingly, the following operational strategies should be followed: adhere to the strategic direction and adjust the position in combination with phased tactics, that is, strategic persistence and tactical flexibility. The former need not be discussed, and the latter needs to run position adjustment because it needs to avoid phased risks. When judging that the market is facing an intermediate adjustment, we can either keep the original position still or even close some or all positions. Specific instructions are as follows:
(1) If you have confidence in the future development of the market and are still far from the envisaged goal, you can ignore the upcoming adjustment and provide an opportunity to increase your holdings.
(2) If the expected adjustment is large or difficult to judge, it will be a wise choice to temporarily withdraw. The liquidation amount may be 50%, 1/3 or 2/3 as the case may be. If the danger subsides, then the position will usually be filled and the plan will be overweight, but the premise is that it is easy to defend.
(3) Any changes that tend to be dangerous areas should be vigilant. Since the performance of trend reversal is similar to the initial intermediate adjustment, investors should close their positions and avoid them. When the market returns to the original trend, you can consider covering the position; However, if the market fluctuation becomes stubborn, or your self-judgment is in doubt, then you should leave the market.
(4) If the price has touched the set primary stop loss, it is a natural choice to withdraw some positions; But if the last line of defense is effectively broken, then all positions should be left. We must admit that there are many things in the market that we don't know.
2. How to get out
There is a saying in the securities market: it is the master who will sell and the apprentice who will buy. In fact, the same is true of futures investment: people who are good at leaving the market are smart, because only leaving the market can achieve the investment purpose. However, people's subconscious always thinks about how to attack and how to make money better, thus ignoring the importance of defense and exit. This phenomenon is that people's eyes are always fixed on money, and the market becomes colorful because of the heartbeat, so they linger. The influence of desire will inevitably lead to failure, and nostalgia for the market is a kind of greed; In essence, this is comparing wisdom with the market.
In addition to passive stop loss, any active liquidation has the intention of active defense-protecting profits and limiting losses. From the perspective of security defense, leaving means the end of the risk, thus completely avoiding the uncertain price fluctuation. The ancient art of war said: "Thirty-six strategies, walking is the best policy." In order to be safe, to save strength, and to prepare for the next better attack.
Here, it should be emphasized that the conditions of entry and exit are not equal. The reason for entering the site must be sufficient, prudent and sure; But the appearance is different, and the reasons can be simple and obscure, even if some necessary conditions are met. If you try to find enough reasons to leave, then the transaction will get into trouble because of delay; This requires investors to predict the coming of risks and respond in advance; At the same time, it requires the spirit of giving up and the continuation of the market after giving up appearances. It can be seen that the conditions for entering the market are broad, leaving investors with sufficient choice.
The process of investment is essentially a process of taking and giving up, and the choice depends on people's hearts. The word "give up" is "twin brother". How can you get it if you don't give up? And this is the difficulty of the problem. Many people don't understand this and always want to find the best way out by studying the market, but so far no one knows. Why? Because there are no eucalyptus trees. Eucalyptus is not in the market, but in everyone's heart. The pursuit of perfection is the expression of greed, and the imperfect way of leaving is the most perfect, so that it is possible to survive and develop.
Here are some suggestions on how to leave:
(1) Inspiration and intuition. Sometimes you don't need any special reason to go out, because you have already made money, even big money, especially if the expected goal is close. When inspiration and intuition remind you to play, you are out. Maybe some people will think: what is the truth! ? There is a saying that "enough is enough", but how to define it? As long as you are psychologically satisfied, why compete with the market and others? However, how to be satisfied? This requires gratitude and praise for everything.
⑵ Technical analysis. When the set technical indicators show the withdrawal signal, especially the moving average shows the momentum of reversal, or the graphic form shows the possibility of reversal, then you can consider withdrawing all your positions. The essence of technical analysis is to analyze the market appearance and predict the market price by analyzing the phenomenon. Phenomenon is the reflection of essence, so the appearance of deterioration implies that the internal contradictions may have changed qualitatively, so if they continue to exist in the market, they will face unpredictable risks. Technical performance often takes precedence over the disclosure of fundamental information, so the effect of playing on the basis of technology is often good Here, you are likely to lose the future market, but it is important to convert profits, preserve and expand capital.
⑶ Periodic analysis. Price fluctuations sometimes show cyclical characteristics, so periodic analysis often gives a good reminder of the inflection point of the stage. When the time indicates that the turning point of the big band may come, especially in the price trend, it will be safer to choose to leave. In addition, the negative theory can sometimes provide useful help in exit, but it can't guide entry, because the measurement of "accuracy" is too poor, and its judgment is still limited to subjective feelings.
(4) potential fundamental changes. When the basic factors leading the trend begin to change adversely, or the hidden reverse factors tend to increase; Perhaps the market performance at this time did not appear unfavorable situation, or even in good condition; But investors should withdraw from the market. There is an implicit fact worthy of attention: every step forward in accumulated profits, the potential loss is one step closer. Leaving the place ahead of time and giving up opportunities under uncertain conditions may also be a disaster; But the most important thing is to win money and time.
Four. Concluding remarks
This paper aims to establish a systematic futures investment guarantee mechanism to prevent us from getting lost in a colorful world. Its role should be a beacon of our thoughts and a guide to our actions. I remember the philosopher Kant once said: Freedom is not to do whatever you want, but to do nothing if you don't want to do anything. Risk control means restraint and makes it a part of investment life and a natural habit. The road to wealth is a secret road, just like a passage in the Bible: "The door to death is spacious and the road is wide, so most people take this road. But you have to go in through the narrow door. Because the door of eternal life is narrow and the road is narrow, few people find him. "