When I first came into contact with futures, I thought it was an opportunity to sit at home and make a fortune. However, after several heavy positions, I naturally lowered my position and lowered my psychological expectations, but I received unexpected results. For example, I first expected to double every six months, but I was forced to close my position twice in four months. Then I expected the income to drop to 20% per year, but it was above 35% for five consecutive years.

Conservative personality makes me a fool a lot of times, but it also gives me something that smart people can't get. I am a typical engineering male. I like to do research before doing something to see if there is any way to make a long-term profit. When I first learned about futures, I was ecstatic. This thing is good, but it can be empty, T+0, and the handling fee is low. As long as you make some rules, can't you sit at home and make a lot of money?

So I spent a lot of time studying the K-line moving average, institutional position data, daily long and short positions, searching the supply and demand of goods online, and even checking the weather conditions in the main producing areas. As a result, everyone can expect that all these things look good, but they are useless. Now it seems that there were many detours at that time, but on second thought, without those detours, there might not be those benefits behind, which is basically the only way for everyone who does futures.

A few years later, when I had a relatively stable profit, I once highly praised the saying that "technical indicators reflect all data", long and short data, the main retail positions, the psychological changes of participants, and even the deliberate suppression and pull-up of the main force can be reflected from the disk. Of course, it is one thing to be able to reflect it, and it is another matter to be able to interpret it all.

Technical schools that reach the master level can definitely make long-term profits in futures, and they can completely ignore all fundamental information. But this does not mean that fundamentals are useless. Fundamentalists can make money and earn more money as long as they try their best. The problem is that relying on fundamentals is only suitable for institutional users with large amounts of funds. People have enough money and contacts to understand the real supply and demand relationship of goods. The so-called fundamental information that anyone can find online is not fundamental at all, or even a tool used to lure small retail investors into reverse operation. If you rely on these to make a market, you will die miserably. There is a simple reason. What you can see can be seen by others. If you trade by this, of course others can. If you can make money, why can't others? If everyone makes money, is this still a futures market that eats people and doesn't spit bones?