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I want to write my guess about the initiator of this big crash, but it always feels wrong, because when I met my friends in Dalian on Saturday, I felt that this crash should be a "new banker" generated by the liberalization of market forces and industrial capital, which tacitly created a decline. The reason is that the related plans of mixed banking reform and state-owned enterprise reform do not meet the market expectation, which leads to resistance, and protests with decline, forcing the government to launch a stronger reform plan, just as the "international board" forced by continuous decline in that year was finally abandoned, just like Yang Ma was forced to finally compromise with the market during the "money shortage" period. Because I have experienced these two times, this time it happened that Shanghai was going to the emerging industry board, and the China stock market was ready to return. In the future, the market will face greater expansion pressure. Now market players don't want their fruits to be picked by the later expansion, but put some pressure on the government.

However, when I went back to give a serious reply on Saturday night, the more I read it, the more I felt something was wrong, because if the main purpose was to stir up feelings and force the government to implement policies, it should be the kind of child who acts like a spoiled brat and threatens adults, something like that, and then get some cheap chips and it will be over. For example, money shortage. Although the decline in market sentiment was caused by the unexpectedly tough attitude of the central bank. But in the end, the main force was pulled enough, waiting for the central bank to make concessions. ? This time, the bidding auction time directly impacted the lower market and directly crossed the MA60 moving average. It is completely different from the previous main smashing behavior. It's not like children fooling around asking for milk and toys. It's like suddenly gouging out your eyes when you are having fun, and putting your hands down like slutty legs. ? Especially on Monday afternoon, when it has fallen to that level, most stocks are still forced to stop. At that time, rumors in the market said that it was because of the explosion of off-site fund-raising, which led to stampede and escape. I don't believe it. Because I know both the fund-raising company and the investors who make the fund-raising, I called to ask how many people were forced to close their positions and how many people added margin, and I knew if it was true. Almost all the people who are doing it with capital allocation are gamblers, and they will never give up as long as they have the chance. Most of them are margin, and few of them are really powerful. Retail investors didn't flock. I know retail investors best. They have always fallen sharply. The first reaction of retail investors is to wait for a rebound before running. I haven't seen many people who run away when they meet the big yinxian line. The stampede to escape circulated in all the media is definitely not the final truth.

Yesterday's violent plunge in the start-up time of AIIB and the emergency rescue in the afternoon were obviously not spontaneous behaviors of the market. The drastic fluctuation of the market 10 point is completely a state of war at the national team level. I also suspect that foreign investors are selling short, hoping to give the government a blow when AIIB starts. But on second thought. This inference does not hold water for two reasons. First, foreign capital does not have so many chips to make such a big move, and its pertinence and understanding of the weakness of the A-share market are not at all the level that foreign capital should have. Second, such a large-scale short-selling, the funds and chips consumed can only be hedged through stock index futures, and foreign governments do not have such great ability. If they want to do this, they need capitalist funds to take the lead, and such a risk-return ratio is obviously not enough to drive foreign capital to do such a desperate struggle. The suppressed cheap chips will be successfully taken over by domestic funds. If foreign investors rush to do the dirty work, while others get the most benefit, they may not take risks at all.

After the market opened this morning, only the spot of CSI 500 index fell completely during the period when the national team increased its weight and the futures index supported the market. The screenshot at that time was not saved well and can't be found. It was taken behind the market.

In the case that all futures indexes are rising, CSI futures and spot are seriously deviated, and the market firmly grasps this soft spot. I just found the answer. Only one person can fight so hard with the national team. In the subsequent reform, the interests will be seriously damaged by vested interests. Only they have such motivation and ability.

Therefore, in this war, it is not retail investors and financing plates, nor private equity and market players. But to face the present leadership and the future of reform.

Because the government really wants to clean up the financing sector, the purpose is to avoid excessive inflow of funds into the stock market and moral hazard when risks break out. But the government's idea is to gradually dredge and clean up. It is absolutely undesirable and intolerable for the government to push a group of financiers onto the roof. Only those who want to stop reform and create social unrest will do so.

In addition, this bull market has brought several key reforms. It needs a bull market for pensions to enter the market, and it also needs a reasonable bull market for state-owned shares to withdraw and invest in private capital, not to mention the registration system and financing of emerging industries. Stopping the bull market at this point in time leads to the collapse of market confidence, which is equivalent to directly cutting off the reform path planned by the government. Because the share prices of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises are still relatively cheap, once the bull market aborts, selling state-owned shares can greatly reduce the ability of local finance to relieve pressure. Even if it is forced to sell, the government will bear the stigma of selling state-owned assets cheaply. Not to mention the pension market access and registration system.

So today, I finally saw the national team enter the first-level combat readiness state, and the firepower was fully open, forcing the air to save the market.

Whether foreign capital contributed to the short-selling process is uncertain, but the biggest enemy can basically be determined to come from within. In particular, the behavior of biting the CSI 500 spot is so professional that it really hits the China stock market seven inches. Less efforts to rescue the market and a half-day slow response may completely reverse market sentiment.

Because now the whole review, in fact, directional blasting is based on the characteristics of the China market at the beginning. First, Huijin unexpectedly reduced its holdings of the four major banks, and then the senior management immediately left. Then the market took stock of off-exchange fund-raising and exaggerated rumors were flying all over the sky. After the targeted attack on Public Offering of Fund's heavy GEM, after the GEM fell, the fund was required to prepare more cash to deal with the redemption risk. At this time, the GEM can hardly sell all the stocks, and can only sell the stocks of the CSI 500. This really forced out the chain reaction of the market. After the CSI 500 chips were loosened, these stocks were forced to stop trading and the fund sold stocks again. It can only sell big blue chips with the best liquidity. When the big blue chips fell, the index fell in a thrilling way. As long as you kill the CSI 500 and stay at the daily limit for a few more hours, the market will really avalanche. Short sellers gave up other sectors this morning and stared at the CSI 500. The market really walked around in front of the gate of hell. ? Prior to this, the Shanghai Composite Index and the stock index futures market were all red-hot, and this round of plunge was due to the decline involved in the death of CSI 500.

The reason for the suspension of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was not to close short-selling opportunities to foreign investors, but to hide the identity of short-selling funds and use the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect channel to evade supervision.