Asset inflation has arrived and the economic structure is deteriorating.
China raised the price of refined oil futures, and the stock market rose like a stimulant. In order to save the economy and stock market confidence, we are heading for a dangerous road.
If inflation is defined as a general rise in prices, then there is no inflation now, the unemployment rate in the United States is at a historical high, and traditional inflation is impossible. If inflation is defined as asset inflation before and after the financial crisis, then inflation has actually arrived.
First of all, as global liquidity begins to pick up, commodity prices are out of the real economy and independent markets.
In the case of insufficient demand, international crude oil futures prices rose rapidly. On June 1, Zhang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Energy Administration, attended the press conference of the State Council Office, saying that the global demand for crude oil declined and the price rose sharply, which was related to oil reserves and financial markets.
Generally speaking, due to the financial crisis, the world demand for crude oil is declining. According to relevant statistics, it is about 4.2 million barrels less than in the past. Recently, however, oil prices have risen rapidly, once reaching $66 a barrel. May may be the highest monthly increase in the past 65,438+00 years. From June, 5438 to May this year, the oil price changed from the lowest $37 to the highest $66, which was also a considerable change. Zhang believes that this is related to the purchasing and storage of various countries, and actually related to the hype of financial giants such as Goldman Sachs. The rise in oil prices does not depend on the demand of the real economy, but on people's expectation of further depreciation of the US dollar.
Secondly, the US economy is not yet stable, and the depreciation of US debt and US dollar is already a high probability event.
The sharp appreciation of the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds has made those who buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds groan, which shows that the risk appetite of global investors has increased, while the excessive issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds has greatly reduced its intrinsic value-the U.S. Treasury plans to sell about $2 trillion of new bonds this year to fill the fiscal deficit of $65,438+$0.8 trillion-and buyers must raise the yield before selling them. Of course, the long-term debt situation of the US dollar is even worse, weaker than the short-term debt. The yield of US Treasury bonds recently rose to a six-month high of nearly 3.75%. If the United States continues to expand the issuance of US debt, the US debt will continue to depreciate; If the Fed buys American bonds, the dollar will continue to depreciate. In the past, American citizens were in debt, and now the US government is in debt to rescue the market.
In fact, American hedge fund managers have adjusted their investment structure and conducted a new round of game, from hedge funds to PE. On the bright side, this is the thawing of the credit market, and the transaction and liquidity of funds have increased. On the bad side, this is that the capital market stands out before the recovery of the real economy. Just like before the financial crisis, the money market and the capital market were addicted to liquidity and divorced from the real economy.
Third, the global economic structure is still deteriorating. China's exports have rebounded slightly, but they have not yet stabilized. The government drives the economy through investment, and the double stimulation of the stock market and the property market drives GDP growth. Under the present structure, it is difficult to adjust the economic structure of China. Government investment is tilted towards state-owned enterprises. In the early days of liquidity growth, the stock market was confused about the concept of speculation, but now the pointer has obviously favored monopoly enterprises, such as petrochemical giants and financial real estate. China is stepping into a long trial period to improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, and injecting capital into state-owned enterprises through capital. Once the market is stable, IPO and Growth Enterprise Market will be launched one after another, creating a steady stream of non-size.
Although the United States has promised to be responsible for the US dollar credit, and although the US Treasury Department, China Securities Regulatory Commission and other institutions have made efforts to promote the transparency of over-the-counter transactions of financial derivatives, the current government measures are stimulating the recovery of over-the-counter transactions. Considering the huge financial derivatives market, according to the estimate of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS), there were about 65,438+000 trillion dollars of unfinished transactions before 65,438+00, and by the end of 2008, it had reached nearly 600 trillion dollars of unfinished transactions, which was 65,438+06 times of the global stock market value (65,438+06 times of the global GDP). What is certain is that the United States
Looking at a series of recent measures, what really works is that the government has increased investment, released credit, and ensured the rise of purchasing managers' index with government orders. The government's structural adjustment of steel products and the recovery of infrastructure construction and real estate investment have led to the abnormal situation that there are too many high value-added products in China steel market and the supply and demand of ordinary talents are booming. It can be seen that the "air conditioning" in the office cannot create an economic system that can be adjusted in time according to market conditions. The government creates demand, sets the proportion of economic structure, and finally banks and state-owned enterprises jointly pay the bill.
There are two ways before us, either to return to the market before the financial crisis and admit that greed for capital liquidity is an inevitable price in the financial era. Replace the last financial bubble with the next financial bubble; Or China and the United States should seriously explore ways of reform, China should increase domestic demand, and the United States should abide by fiscal discipline to avoid further decline on the road of deficit. This will make the transition painful.
A smooth transition and the government controlling the size of the bubble is a beautiful dream.
Note: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) was cynical in the middle of the night, and the price of refined oil rose. The so-called "recent" oil price adjustment is four days. This seems to remind consumers that it is ridiculous to believe in commitment.