Investing in life is about length rather than speed.
Suppose two people, one is an investment genius, have maintained a return on investment of 20% for many years, but because it is easy to make money, they drink all day and indulge their desires. They start investing at the age of 20 and die at the age of 70. The other party cultivates the mind and pays attention to health preservation, but his rate of return is only 15%, just like investing from the age of 20 to 100.
If a genius invests for 50 years, the 50th power of compound interest 1.2 =9 100 times.
Slow Tortoise has invested for 80 years, and the 80th power compound interest1.15 = 71000 times.
All world-class investment masters have one thing in common: long life and little desire. For them, investing in reading is the greatest entertainment in itself.
Only by being calm can we capture the big opportunities in the market. When others are afraid, don't be afraid, and firmly add positions. When others are crazy and greedy, don't be carried away by profits, stay rational and resolutely leave. Only when you are calm to the extreme can you not be swayed by fluctuations, so that you have stocks in your hands and no stocks in your heart.
Value investment lies not in how fast you earn, but in how long you earn.
Let's talk about stable income first. Since we are talking about stable income, we should choose companies with excellent fundamentals, stay away from the concept of subject matter, and don't be impulsive. No matter how busy it is outside, others are partying.
?
How to get a stable income? The return on selected net assets is more than 65,438+05% or even higher all the year round, the performance growth is more than 65,438+00%, the quality of net assets is excellent, the operating cash flow is more than the net profit all the year round, and even more than the target of revenue in some quarters. Such excellent fundamentals have brought a very strong ability to pay dividends continuously.
?
Buffett snowballs, which is actually 4% and 5% dividend yield plus 10% increase. No wonder the master can compound interest at the annual interest rate of 15%, which is the income from the research.
?
How to get extra income? It is the acquisition of emotion and the greed for others. You are afraid that others will be afraid that I will be greedy for acquisitions, and emotions will dominate the transaction. This means that the opportunity has come. There are two premises here. One is excellent valuation, whether the selected target is excellent, and the other is whether there is cash flow when irrational decline occurs.
?
This is the ability of asset management. Life and investment are both journeys of risk management, and we need to do distribution and management, so standing cash flow is a necessary condition.
?
Never treat yourself as a trader, chasing up and down, but keep and control your emotions when the market sentiment comes. The more irrational coefficients in the market, the higher the income. Based on the position of 30%, it is really wonderful to get 5% annual income every time in a market with such a large fluctuation of A-share sentiment.
?
Of course, there is another level of emotional cultivation. You can't copy at the lowest point, and you can't earn the last coin, because you only know the value of valuation but don't know the price brought by emotion, so don't be angry, regret, regret and depressed.
?
Don't be a trader, be the commander behind the trader.
People who do great things take this road ... regardless of personal gains and losses, to achieve the realm of selflessness, the fundamental values are first of all "altruism" ... speculation, people who think they are smart, people who are afraid of losing ... it is difficult to achieve great things!
People who do great things are ambitious, don't care, and are not afraid of losses. If they choose the right goal, they will go forward bravely ... often such people can achieve great things!
Wrong. Regardless of speculation or investment, human nature is a crucial condition, even the most important condition!
What is human nature? It is said that the main emotions in the stock market are "fear and greed". This kind of emotion is human nature!
As long as you enter the stock market, no matter what your operation style is, you will be troubled by "fear and greed", without exception, even if you are doing value investment.
Value investors are basically long-term investors. In the long process of holding shares, the test of human nature is more severe. There are bears and cows in the stock market. If you are not in the lowest position (which is also difficult to do), will you stick to your choice in the face of stock price decline?
If you buy at a lower price, you now have a floating profit. Can you stand firm in the face of fluctuating stock prices?
Seriously, I think the inner pressure of value investors is more cruel than price speculation.
Few people can really be "quiet". The biggest test for value investors is to remain calm in the face of losses and firmly believe that their stocks will definitely rise back. In the face of greater profits, I can still firmly hold shares, firmly believe that my stock is far from reaching its real value, and firmly hold shares.
The test of human nature is much more difficult and cruel than technology!
Some people say that investment values human nature, while speculation values human nature. Do you agree with this statement?
Having been immersed in the capital market for a long time, I may have a deeper understanding of investment and speculation. Different depths and angles may lead to different understandings.
This question is actually how to understand the difference between investment and speculation.
How can you see it? The so-called value investment should be the study of the growth of the enterprise or the target itself, and the prediction of the future growth space is the "value investment". Whether it is macro research, industry, or the judgment of the enterprise itself and its surrounding competitors, this is the value base, right? Is this an investment?
Is the so-called speculation understood as short-term trading, and is the investment that obtains the spread called speculation? I think this is based on observing the changes of human nature in the market as the main basis for judging the sale. Is that really the case?
There are many people who are interested in the names of investment and speculation, and there are also the most controversies. It seems that more people prefer the former. However, many people tend to the latter and defend it. Although it seems that the effect of war is not good, people seem to think that profiteering is like a dude who idles around all day, plays with birds, bullies women in the market and usurps power. Is that really the case?
Before rambling about investment and speculation, let's clarify a concept. Is the investment we have been talking about the same as the investment we are going to talk about today?
In layman's terms, investment is Qian Shengqian's business. Investment is a big concept and a big category of behavior.
Now, investment and speculation should be understood as two ways to make money in Qian Shengqian. If the investment in the article is called Ye, then the investment to be written now is called Sun Zijia, so Sun Ziyi is naturally speculative.
Master Wang's investment is a general term. Sun Jia and Sun Yi are junior students, including two behaviors and two crutches.
This is a detour, okay? Sweat all over.
In order to make it easier for everyone not to go back, the following concepts of investment are all called Qian Shengqian's business, and both sides call them Sun Zi by their first names: investment and speculation.
In this chapter, don't use speculative judgment in politics, morality and culture in Qian Shengqian's business, and don't link the ancient concepts of businessman and unscrupulous businessman with speculation. He has nothing to do with politics or morality. Speculation is a neutral word here.
It will be easier to go on like this, otherwise readers will read with emotions and opinions and have to smash them with bricks. Just treat these two grandchildren fairly, okay?
I think:
Investment is a way to make money by putting money into appreciation due to endogenous growth.
Speculation is a way to make money, using the relative changes between markets to earn unequal value.
The way to make money by investing is mainly based on the target of investment, because you are good at management, hone your skills and forge ahead. With the growth of self, value drives the price to rise, which is achieved through the self-effort of the goal.
For example, if you invest in a company, the initial investment value of the company is 6.5438+million yuan. But after several years of efforts, both the product and the market scale have increased a lot compared with the original value. Now it's worth 30 million yuan, and the 20 million yuan of excess appreciation is investment income, which comes from the self-development of enterprises.
Another example is opening a hotel, with an initial investment of 6,543,800 yuan. Due to the careful management and hard drinking of the boss and his wife, the hotel business is booming. Now the couple don't want to do it, and people who want to buy this hotel come to the door again and again, and finally clinch a deal for 2 million. Compared with the initial investment, the value-added of 6,543,800 yuan was obtained after the hotel continued to make profits and improved its quality and value.
The same is true of farming, service industry, and so on.
These profits were brought to Qian Shengqian because of the endogenous growth of the target. This kind of behavior is called investment, and grandson Jia did it.
But this way of making money, it is difficult to have a big change in a short time. After all, endogenous growth takes time to temper. No enterprise, restaurant or factory has made a big leap in a short time, no!
Therefore, this method in Qian Shengqian is suitable for making money in the medium and long term, and the return is also very high.
Those guys have some money and just want to go to Qian Shengqian in a short time. What if you dare not gamble? Ancestors have long thought about it for us. In the embryonic stage of capitalism, speculative Qian Shengqian business has already appeared in BLACKPINK (our ancestors also invented it, but it did not form a theory that will last forever).
Its other name is trading opportunity. In the Qian Shengqian market, there are still such opportunities to make money. It has nothing to do with the endogenous growth of the target in the corresponding time period. It is at a certain moment, between one goal or several goals, or between several markets, because of objective factors, people's different reactions to emotions bring a short-term price error, and then the price returns to rationality because of misunderstanding, resulting in income opportunities.
A little abstract. For example.
If the share price of listed companies continues to rise these days, is it because of any changes in the company's performance? Sometimes, it seems not all. Why, without any information (pay attention to this premise), the stock price was still a stagnant pool a few days ago, but it jumped up and down these days?
At this time, several buddies keenly captured this change, immediately bought (or shorted), sold for a profit a few days later, and then the stock price returned to calm. This short-term profit opportunity is not caused by the growth factors of listed companies, but the profit generated by market trading opportunities, which belongs to speculative income.
For example, because of special reasons (the reasons have been exemplified earlier), I bought an ultra-low-priced house and sold it at the market price. This is the income from speculative trading. The intrinsic value of this house has not changed in a short time.
For another example, the price of the same commodity is different in different markets, assuming that the commodity is a financial product that can be traded in two places, such as futures and options. At this time, there is an opportunity to obtain regional differential profits. This kind of opportunity is called arbitrage in Qian Shengqian, which is an effective way to make money in speculative trading.
Some people will call it something for nothing. This is a fallacy, deeply influenced by traditional education. This kind of transaction is called finding price errors and correcting them one by one, so as not to let the prices in the market miss their heads. This is outrageous. Do you think this is beneficial or harmful? Because this is based on the fact that market sentiment can make mistakes, the wrong sentiment will encourage the arrogance of prices, and there is no speculative error correction function, which will eventually hurt people who just casually comment on others.
The core personnel of the world's top hedge funds are not all financial wizards, but quite a few top experts in mathematics, biology, chemistry, astronomy and other fields. They just study and capture the ubiquitous trading opportunities on the earth and trade with computers that can't make mistakes. This kind of speculative fund has no chance to wait and see at the door, because it is the most certain Qian Shengqian business in the world, and its profit is quite high.
This is speculation, isn't it cool?
In other words, the value has not changed in a short time, but the price has changed because of changes in market sentiment and other factors. After it was changed, it found its own mistakes in time and was corrected by the market. It is these fleeting opportunities to earn money and make money that are called speculation. Also known as trading opportunities, there will indeed be trading opportunities arising from changes in human nature.
Qian Shengqian's way of promoting price change by value change is called investment.
The Qian Shengqian way, with constant value and changing price, is self-correcting and is called speculation.
Investment makes money by qualitative change, while speculation makes money by changing watches, but they are all businesses in Qian Shengqian.
In the final analysis, both investment and speculation should study value and humanity, but in different investment methods, the degree of application is different. Can't you predict the development trend of macro, industry and enterprise when investing, and consider human nature? Trend judgment is not just a patent for transactional investment. Isn't it right to predict the value when speculating? Otherwise, how to judge the error of price trend?
What's the difference between two grandchildren? Your palms are covered with meat.
Investment is long-term speculation, and speculation is short-term investment. The essential difference between the two is the different evaluation and judgment of the target value, which determines whether to choose investment or speculative participation.
If you choose to participate in investment, you must pay attention to its value; If you choose to participate in speculation, you should pay more attention to the timing of your participation. Seize the opportunity to gain unexpected gains.
Value investment is right, and it is in the medium and long term. Speculation is more short-term and somewhat similar to gambling.
The creation of value needs the market and people to drive it. Investment puts value creation first, which requires the accumulation of market and time. Speculation is a flash in the pan. The accumulation of real wealth depends on long-term roots. Even in stock trading, I believe that the real money must be long-term stocks, and short-term stocks are rare.
Either way, it is inseparable from the insight into human nature.
Hello!
Both cases are recognized. Why?
First, investment emphasizes value, which is the experience summarized by Warren Buffett, but it is true that value investment is better than speculation in the case of long-term holding;
Second: speculation is also a means of investment. Standing at a fork in the road, pigs can fly and people are smart. Why don't you go in and compare such a good opportunity? (tuyere, trend, short term)
Although there is only one word difference between investment and speculation, their meanings are quite different. As we all know, Buffett is a typical representative of value investment, and most of our personal investments in stocks and futures are considered speculation!
In fact, I personally think that these are two trading methods: investment is a relatively long-term behavior, at least three to five years, so we must pay attention to the company's value when investing in stocks, and what we gain is the company's value growth and share dividends. At the same time, investors will not trade every day or every week, nor will they care about the short-term fluctuations of stocks. As long as he knows that the company is running in a good direction, he won't sell it. Therefore, investment should pay attention to value, so that investors can get a high probability of return.
Speculation is more regarded as short-term trading, with daily or weekly trading. For example, futures trading is a typical speculation. Speculation is hoping to buy low and sell high, get the return of the price difference and trade in the day. The basis of buying and selling is various technical indicators and K-line patterns. Then these technical indicators reflect human behavior. If it rises, it will continue to rise, and if it falls, it will continue to fall. This is the behavior of chasing up and killing down. So everyone thinks that speculation needs to study people's behavior and mentality. That is to pay attention to human nature.
I think this is just two different ways of investing according to different people's personalities. As long as you find a way that suits you, sum it up and form a business model, you should be able to get corresponding profits.
When investing in the stock market, we must think clearly about the phrase "strategy is greater than trend". Whether it is investment or speculation, we need to analyze this sentence in depth. Personally, I don't agree with the statement that "investment values human nature and speculation values human nature".
Investment and speculation, value and humanity, must be so clearly divided? Personally, I think it is not necessary. The most important thing to invest in the stock market is the rationality and appropriateness of its own methods. What is suitable for investment must be suitable; What is suitable for speculation must be suitable. However, how many people are suitable for investment and how many people are suitable for speculation? After entering the market for more than ten years, most investors are neither suitable for investment nor for speculation. How can I put it?
Is there a systematic learning process for ordinary investors to enter the market? It can be said that 99.999% of investors don't even know what the stock is, what the listed company behind the stock is doing, and whether the company is losing money or making profits. So, in this context, investing is like taking a chance. I can't choose stocks, I can't choose stocks, I don't have any strategies, I don't have any investment methods, and I can't even control my investment emotions. Can this state succeed in the stock market? Most investors can't succeed.
In this case, investment values and speculative values are human nature. Does it really fit? Obviously, it is impossible.
Perhaps, many readers will say that investors are not fools and can make progress through continuous learning. It's like this: "There is Yan Ruyu in the book, and there is a golden house in the book.". However, can you really have a correct understanding of the stock market through learning? Investment values, what is value? Speculation emphasizes human nature, how to control human nature? Is this not a classification, but a problem that everyone has to face? Moreover, this problem will always haunt investors, not to say that you can pass the barrier by reading two books, or you can turn the situation around by reading a few books.
Therefore, in the stock market, there is no investment that emphasizes value and speculation that emphasizes human nature, only what suits you. Of course, it is suitable, but it is not suitable. It is better to choose to leave. The most important thing to invest in the stock market is to understand the sentence "strategy is greater than trend".
Hello, I'm Crest, and I'm glad to answer your question. The following is my opinion.
What people call investment is usually an economic activity based on sustainable operation, usually with a long cycle and a large amount of funds or monetary equivalents, and tends to obtain relatively sustained and stable cash flow income in a certain period of time in the future, which is the accumulation of future income. There are physical investment, capital investment and securities investment. Investment forms include partnership (investment in technology, capital, land, talents, rights, etc.). ), long-term stock purchase and so on. Because of its long economic activity cycle, large capital investment and limited input factors, it pays more attention to the value behind it.
Of course, people may also say that many of my investments are made by this person, or that I only invest because this person is practical, capable, talkative and so on. In the final analysis, this is also a long-term investment. In the final analysis, we decided to cooperate with it, for the value behind it, or for continuous operation, because this person can bring value, such as credit value, technical value and capital value. ...
Guess is different. Speculation is usually a hot spot that keeps up with the times, fast-forward and fast-out, pays more attention to the utilization rate of funds, and the return on capital investment is faster. Usually people will be named after speculation, such as stock speculation, real estate speculation, shoes speculation and so on. Speculation values the humanity behind it. I fear when the enemy is greedy, and I am greedy when the enemy is afraid. More psychological assurance, such as the price limit of the stock market, there is no market for real estate speculation. Tulip bubble is such a terrible human nature, greed is endless, people tend to be crazy, always thinking that the price will always double again, and finally the outrageous price will not hold up, and everything will go up in smoke. ...
It can be summarized as follows: investment focuses on value and profit, speculation focuses on humanity and price difference, investment is generally long-term, speculation is generally short-term, and it is most important to find a method that suits you.