Mayandong Yaoxiang
abstract
This report forecasts the economic growth, prices, balance of payments and other major economic indicators of China in 20 15 years. Our benchmark judgment is that under the background of "three-phase superposition", the economy will show more "new normal" characteristics next year, and the growth rate will slow down slightly, but the employment situation and price trend will remain basically stable, the economic structure will continue to improve, and the sustainability of economic growth will be enhanced.
Our benchmark forecast for economic growth is that the real GDP growth rate of China will slow down slightly from 7.4% in 20 14 to 7. 1% in 20 15. On the one hand, influenced by foreign economic recovery and other factors, China's export growth will accelerate; On the other hand, due to the weak sales of commercial housing in the early stage, investment in real estate development will continue to slow down. Although export acceleration is beneficial to economic growth, the downward pressure brought by the slowdown in real estate investment will be difficult to be completely hedged by export acceleration.
Although the economic growth rate may continue to slow down in 20 15, it is expected that the urban employment situation will remain basically stable. This is because China's economy is gradually transforming from a manufacturing-led model to a service industry, and the labor intensity of the service industry is higher than that of the manufacturing industry. The increase in the proportion of service industry in the economy means that every percentage point of GDP growth will create more jobs than before. In view of the current industrial structure, labor intensity and employment elasticity of various industries, we estimate that the GDP growth of 7. 1% in 20 15 years will basically be equal to the level of 20 14 years.
We expect that the effects of various reform measures on promoting structural adjustment will gradually emerge, and the economic structure will continue to be improved in 20 15 years. The contribution of final consumption to economic growth will continue to rise, and the contribution of capital formation to economic growth will decline; The proportion of tertiary industry in GDP will continue to rise; The input and output of people's livelihood expenditure, environmental protection, new energy and other green industries, including shantytown renovation, and scientific and technological innovation maintained rapid growth, and the sustainability of economic development was enhanced.
Our benchmark forecast for the trend of consumer price is that the CPI will increase by 2.2% in 20 15 years, which has little change compared with 20 14 years. There are many factors that affect the increase of CPI, including food prices, output gap at home and abroad, and changes in international commodity prices. Among them, food prices and international commodity prices are facing greater uncertainty.
In terms of international payments, our benchmark forecast is: in 20 15, exports will increase by 6.9%, 0.8 percentage points faster than in 20 14; Imports increased by 5. 1%, 3.2 percentage points faster than that in 20 14; The ratio of current account surplus to GDP is 2.4%, which is basically the same as that in 20 14.
Our benchmark forecast of economic growth faces many upside and downside risks. The main upside risks include foreign economic growth exceeding expectations, China's loose real estate policy exceeding expectations to boost buyers' confidence, and structural reform measures to rapidly enhance China's economic growth potential. The main downside risks include: (1) geopolitical factors lead to the deterioration of the European economic situation; (2) The speed and intensity of interest rate increase in the United States were faster than expected, which led to large-scale capital outflow, large exchange rate fluctuations and economic slowdown in emerging market economies, thus reducing the import demand of these economies for China; (3) The real estate market price in China dropped significantly, which led to an unexpected slowdown in real estate sales and investment.
I. Forecast of Economic Growth and Employment
Our benchmark judgment is that under the background of "three-phase superposition", the economy will show more "new normal" characteristics next year, and the growth rate will slow down slightly, but the employment situation will remain basically stable, the economic structure will continue to improve, and the sustainability of economic growth will be enhanced.
(1) It is predicted that the real GDP growth rate will drop to 7. 1% in 20 15 years.
Our forecast under the benchmark scenario is that the real GDP will increase by 7. 1% in 20 15, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 20 14. Investment in fixed assets increased by 12.8% in 20 15, which was 2.7 percentage points lower than that in 20 14. In 20 15, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods remained at 12.2%, with little change compared with 20 14; The export growth rate increased from 6. 1% in 20 14 to 6.9% in 20 15, and the import growth rate increased from 1.9% in 20 14 to 5./in 20 15.
The background that the GDP growth rate may continue to slow down in 20 15 years is the superposition effect of three phases that China is facing: the shift period of growth rate, the painful period of structural adjustment and the digestive period of previous stimulus policies. From the supply side, reform can improve the efficiency of resource allocation and economic growth potential, but structural factors such as the decline of working-age population and the rapid rise of labor costs, the increasing constraints of environmental resources on economic growth, and the weakening of the "catch-up effect" of manufacturing industry will continue to exert downward pressure on economic growth potential.
From the demand side, there are two main reasons that affect the economic growth in 20 15 years: (1) the international economic recovery and other factors have slightly accelerated China's export growth; (2) Since 2065438+04, the weak commercial housing sales have led to the continuous slowdown of real estate development investment in 20 15 years, and the slowdown of real estate investment and its negative spillover effects on related industries will inhibit economic growth. Although export acceleration is beneficial to economic growth, the downward pressure brought by the slowdown in real estate investment is difficult to be completely hedged by export acceleration.
There are many short-term and medium-term factors that affect the economic growth in 20 15 years. Some positive factors include the improvement of private and foreign-funded enterprises' enthusiasm for investment in service industry brought about by reform measures such as decentralization and opening to the outside world, the promotion of infrastructure and shantytown renovation investment to the economy, and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises by government policies supporting innovation and entrepreneurship.
Promotion etc. Negative factors include cyclical pressures such as slow investment in some manufacturing industries due to excessive leverage ratio, rising rate of non-performing assets and pressure on manufacturing profit margins.
Our main assumptions for the benchmark forecast of 20 15 include: (1) The GDP growth rate of developed economies has accelerated from 20 14 1.8% to 2.3% of 20 15; (2) The international commodity prices have fallen slightly, and the global trade situation is basically stable; (3) China's monetary policy and fiscal policy maintain continuity and stability. The monetary condition index (the weighted average index of the real interest rate, the real effective exchange rate and the difference between the broad money growth rate and the base period level) remained basically stable; The ratio of fiscal balance to GDP in 20 15 years is basically the same as that in 20 14 years, and the fiscal pulse in 20 15 years (the ratio of fiscal balance to GDP after periodic adjustment and the change value of the previous year) is also basically stable compared with that in 20 14 years; (4) The slowdown of real estate development investment in 2015 is mainly caused by the slowdown of commercial housing sales since 20 14, regardless of other major external shocks.
Our benchmark forecast of economic growth in 20 15 years faces many upward and downward risks. The main upside risks include foreign economic growth exceeding expectations (for example, if the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine is alleviated, it may enhance market confidence, investment and economic growth in Europe); Loose policies in China's real estate market (such as the cancellation of purchase restriction in big cities, the decrease of mortgage down payment ratio, and the reduction of mortgage interest rate) have increased the confidence of buyers. The main downside risks include: (1) the deterioration of the European economic situation caused by geopolitical factors and the impact of the escalation of terrorist activities on the global economy; (2) The speed and intensity of interest rate increase in the United States were greater than expected, which led to a large outflow of capital from emerging market economies, large exchange rate fluctuations and economic slowdown, thus reducing the import demand of these economies for China; (3) The real estate price in China dropped sharply, which led to an unexpected slowdown in real estate sales and investment; (4) The real effective exchange rate of RMB has greatly appreciated, which has restrained the export growth of China. For various scenarios of foreign economic growth, the impact of interest rate hikes in the United States and the impact of the domestic real estate market, please refer to Section IV of this report.
(b) Urban employment is expected to remain stable.
We predict that under the benchmark scenario, although the economic growth rate will slow down in 20 15 years, the urban employment situation will remain basically stable. As China's economy is gradually transforming from manufacturing industry to service industry, the labor intensity of service industry is higher than that of manufacturing industry. The increase in the proportion of service industry in the economy means that every percentage point of GDP growth will create more jobs than before, and the ability of the economy to absorb employment will be improved. From 2008 to 20 13, China's GDP growth rate dropped from 9.6% to 7.7%, down by 1.9 percentage points. However, thanks to the transformation of industrial structure, the proportion of tertiary industry in China's GDP rose from 4 1.8% to 46. 1%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points, which made China create new jobs in cities and towns every year. At present, the recruitment ratio is significantly higher than 1 (indicating that the labor market is still in short supply despite the slowdown in economic growth), which also supports this judgment.
In view of the current economic structure, labor intensity and employment elasticity of various industries, we predict that if the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP increases by 65,438+0 percentage points in 2065,438+05 (the annual growth rate in the past few years is above 65,438+0 percentage points), the new urban jobs created by GDP growth rate of 7.65,438+0% will be the same as that in 2065. In addition, the data released by the Bureau of Statistics show that in 20 13 years, the working-age population in China (defined as 15-59 years old population) decreased by 2.44 million compared with 20 12 years, with a decrease of about 0.3%. According to the estimation of population structure and total fertility rate, the decline of working-age population in China will last for a long time in the future. In this context, suppose a town.
The speed of urbanization and the labor participation rate have not changed much. 7. 1% GDP growth means that the urban unemployment rate will not deteriorate significantly in 20 15 years, and may even continue to improve.
(3) The economic structure will continue to improve.
Although we predict that the economic growth rate will all slow down in 20 15, with the promotion of the role of market mechanism in resource allocation, the gradual implementation of various structural adjustment measures and the change of consumption preference, the economic structure is expected to be improved in many aspects, and the sustainability of economic growth will be strengthened.
Analyzing the contribution to economic growth from the perspective of expenditure method, we estimate that the contribution of the three major demand sources to real GDP growth in 20 15 years is: the final consumption contribution is 50.9%, which is about 0.9 percentage points higher than the estimated value in 20 14 years; The total contribution of capital formation is 46.8%, which is about 0.9 percentage points lower than the estimated value of 20 14. The net export contribution of goods and services is 2.3%, which is basically the same as the estimated value in 20 14. This shows that the dependence of economic growth on investment will be reduced, the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth will be enhanced, and the demand structure is expected to continue to improve.
In the investment in fixed assets, although the investment in commercial housing development and some investments in high-energy, high-pollution and low-end manufacturing industries are expected to continue to slow down, the government's strong support for shantytown renovation, environmental protection, energy conservation, new energy, infrastructure and other fields and the reform of investment and financing mechanism will increase the proportion of investment in people's livelihood and green industries and help optimize the investment structure. The reform measures promoted by the government, such as reducing the access restrictions on private capital, increasing opening to the outside world and increasing the value of camp reform, will continue to help increase the proportion of the tertiary industry in the economy. The new round of policies to support and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship is expected to further increase the growth rate of China's scientific and technological input and output, enhance the scientific and technological content of China's economy and the growth potential of total factor productivity, and enhance the sustainability of economic growth.
Second, the price trend forecast
Our forecast under the benchmark scenario is that the consumer price index (CPI) will increase by 2.2% in 20 15 years, which is not much different from the predicted value of 2.0% in 20 14 years.
20 15 the main factors that affect the trend of CPI are food prices, output gap and the trend of international commodity prices: first, the rise of food prices. The long-term average annual increase of food prices in China is 4.5% (the average of 2000-20 14 years), but the year-on-year growth rate of food prices before 20 1 1 month was only 3. 1%. Judging from the long-term response of farmers' income and supply to prices, the price increase of agricultural products (1 1.73, 0. 18, 1.56%) may return to the long-term trend (that is, expand). However, considering the current climate, grain harvest and the trend of international grain and oil prices, our benchmark expectation is China's grain next year.
Second, the output gap. The factors affecting the output gap are very complicated, including the change of growth potential caused by structural factors such as population, the digestion of excess capacity by some departments, the improvement of capacity utilization by export growth, and the suppression of demand by the slowdown of real estate investment. Based on comprehensive judgment, it is predicted that the domestic output gap will not worsen or improve obviously in 20 15 years, so the impact of output gap on PPI tends to be neutral, and the change of PPI and its transmission to CPI will be limited by the change of output gap.
Third, international commodity prices. According to the latest forecast of IMF[[ Weibo] and other institutions, the international commodity price index will continue to decline, but the decline is narrower than that in 20 14. According to this trend, especially the change of energy price, it is predicted that China's import price index will still face some downward pressure in 20 15 years, but the decline will gradually decrease.
The above price index benchmark forecast faces many upward and downward risks. The upside risks include the unexpected growth of the international economy, which makes the global negative output gap narrow rapidly; The intensification of geopolitical conflicts has led to the skyrocketing international commodity prices; Quantitative easing in Europe and Japan was stronger than expected, and arbitrage investment in commodities intensified; China's economy benefited from the rapid recovery of the real estate market. The downside risks of inflation in China include lower-than-expected international and China economic growth, excessive interest rate increase in the United States, sharp drop in international commodity prices, and appreciation of the effective exchange rate of RMB.
Three. Import and export forecast
Our benchmark forecast results are as follows: in 20 15, the trade export (nominal value calculated in US dollars) of customs statistics increased by 6.9%, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in 20 14; Imports increased by 5. 1%, 3.2 percentage points faster than that in 20 14. The ratio of current account surplus to GDP is 2.4%, which is basically the same as that in 20 14.
20 15 The positive factors affecting China's export prospects mainly include: First, the developed economies account for about 50% of China's foreign demand, and the gradual economic recovery in these areas will improve the external environment for China's exports. According to the consensus forecast, the economic growth of Europe, America and Japan will accelerate by about 0.5 percentage point next year, which is conducive to stimulating China's export growth. Second, the government's measures to stabilize foreign trade and the opening-up strategy of Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the mainland to expand Yanbian area will also help promote export growth. However, the labor cost advantages of emerging market economies will continue to emerge, and developed economies will turn to low-cost countries to import, which will curb the potential of China's export growth. From the perspective of imports, although the growth rate of investment in China and international commodity prices may continue to decline next year, the decline rate is expected to be more moderate than this year, which will help to increase the nominal import growth rate of China and return it to the normal trend.
Our main assumptions for the forecast of import and export benchmark in 20 15 include: (1) The economic growth rate of developed countries will increase from10/4 to 2.3% in 20 15; (2) China's macro policies maintain continuity and stability; (3) The real effective exchange rate of RMB is basically stable.
Our import and export benchmark forecast faces some risks. If the foreign economic growth rate is significantly higher than expected, it will help improve China's export situation. The main downside risks faced by China's exports include the speed and intensity of the US interest rate hike exceeding expectations, the obvious deterioration of the international economic situation caused by geopolitical factors, and the obvious appreciation of China's real effective exchange rate caused by fluctuations in international exchange rates. The risks of import forecast include: geopolitical factors push up commodity prices; Unexpected adjustments have taken place in China's real estate market, further curbing the demand for foreign goods imports.
Four. Uncertain factors and scenario analysis
(A) the scenario of foreign economic growth and its impact on China's exports
According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund [Weibo] (IMF), the economic growth rate of the United States will increase from 2.2% in 20 14 to 3. 1% in 20 15, and the economic growth rate of the euro zone will increase from 0.8% in 20 14 to 20/4. Overall, the economic growth rate of developed countries is expected to return to the growth potential, and the United States may even exceed the potential. In the United States, healthier household balance sheets and good employment growth momentum will boost consumption; The improvement of capacity utilization and the aging of stock capital will accelerate capital investment. Due to the impact of the Ukrainian conflict, the pace of recovery in the euro zone is facing great uncertainty. Slow structural reform continues to inhibit its economic growth potential, but the depreciation of the euro exchange rate will contribute to the slow recovery of 20 15 economic growth. Japan's postponement of the second round of consumption tax increase and radical quantitative easing measures may make its economic performance slightly better than expected next year. Overall, the growth of emerging market economies will improve slightly, but it is still lower than the potential output. Russia, Brazil and other economies will face great difficulties due to geopolitical factors and falling commodity prices, but some export-oriented emerging economies will benefit from the recovery of developed economies in 20 15.
We use the forecast of the International Monetary Fund as the benchmark scenario for foreign economic growth. However, this benchmark scenario faces many risks. The first is geopolitical uncertainty. For example, whether the geopolitical problems in Ukraine and Russia can be quickly alleviated will greatly affect the confidence of European enterprises and investors, thus affecting their investment and economic growth prospects. The referendum in Scotland may stimulate separatist activities in other parts of Europe, including Spain. The second uncertainty is the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike and its impact on other countries. The current market expectation is that the United States will start raising interest rates in the middle of 20 15 years, and then raise interest rates by nearly 200 basis points in the next two years. However, if the rate hike is obviously earlier or faster than expected, it may lead to a large amount of capital outflow and slow growth in some emerging market economies. Other risks include large fluctuations in commodity prices, terrorist attacks, Ebola and other large-scale epidemics, and large fluctuations in exchange rates.
In view of the above uncertainties, we analyze the growth prospects of China's import and export under three scenarios of international economic growth in 20 15 years. The three scenarios are: (1) high scenario, assuming that the economic growth rate of the United States is 4. 1%, that of Europe is 2%, and that of Japan is1.3%; (2) Benchmark scenario, assuming that the economic growth rate of the United States is 3. 1%, that of Europe is 1.3% and that of Japan is 0.8% in 20 15 years; (3) In the low scenario, it is assumed that the economic growth rate of the United States is 2. 1% in 20 15 years, and the economic growth rates of Europe and Japan are 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Under the three scenarios of high, benchmark and low, it is predicted that the export growth rate of China in 20 15 will be 8.9%, 6.9% and 5.0% respectively.
(B) the impact of the US interest rate hike on emerging market economies
If the Fed tightens monetary policy faster and harder than expected, it may lead to a large amount of capital outflows and large exchange rate fluctuations in emerging market economies, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in these economies, thus impacting China's export demand.
Since 20 13, with the strong recovery of American economy, the market's expectation of quantitative easing policy withdrawal and interest rate increase has been heating up. In September this year, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted that the federal funds rate would reach 1.375% by the end of 2065, 438+05% and 2.875% by the end of 2065, while the average expectations in March were 1.65%, 438+025% and 2. Regarding the timing of the Fed's interest rate hike, the average expectation of FOMC members is to raise interest rates for the first time in June next year. There are some differences between market expectations and the Fed. Recently, with the end of the quantitative easing policy in the United States and the continuous improvement of the economic situation in the United States, the market's expectation of raising interest rates has increased: according to the federal interest rate futures trading data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, at the end of September, the probability that the market expects the Fed to start raising interest rates is 73%, while the data of June 65438+February 10 shows that this probability has risen to.
The pace and intensity of future interest rate hikes in the United States may have another impact on some emerging market economies. Emerging market economies, where dollar inflows and asset prices were pushed up more than a few years ago, began to face the pressure of capital outflow, exchange rate depreciation, asset price decline and economic slowdown last year. Indian Rupee, Brazilian real, South African rand and other currencies began to depreciate in May 20 13, and the depreciation rate once reached more than 20%. In response to currency depreciation and hot money outflow, emerging market economies such as India and Brazil have raised interest rates in advance, but a sharp increase in interest rates will increase the downward pressure on the real economy. If the US actually raises interest rates faster and harder than expected, emerging market economies will once again be hit by capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations. For some small emerging market economies, large-scale capital outflows will still have a negative impact on their exchange rates and the real economy relative to their capital market capacity, even if there is full expectation for the US to raise interest rates. From the perspective of some emerging market economies, after the international financial crisis, there have been some problems, such as the rising leverage ratio of private and public sectors, the rapid expansion of bank credit scale, and the intensification of macroeconomic imbalances. The risks caused by these structural problems are easy to break out in the context of capital outflow.
Over the past year or so, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Turkey have been the hardest hit areas expected by the United States to raise interest rates, and their imports from China account for about 7% of China's total exports. We estimate that if these five countries experience capital outflow and economic slowdown due to the Fed's interest rate hike exceeding expectations, their export demand will be reduced by 65,438+00%, which will drag down China's economic growth by about 0.65,438+05 percentage points next year.
(C) Scenario analysis of the real estate industry in China
Apart from international factors, the main uncertain factor affecting China's economic growth next year is domestic real estate development investment. Data in recent years show that real estate development investment accounts for about 20% of all fixed assets investment. The direct impact of the slowdown in real estate development investment 10 percentage point on the economy is to drag down GDP growth by about 1 0 percentage point. If we consider the impact on relevant industrial chains (such as cement, steel, chemical industry, machinery, household appliances, furniture, energy and other industries), the cumulative effect on economic impact may reach 2 percentage points.
Starting from 20 14, the real estate prices and sales in many cities in China began to decline, and the investment in real estate development was slowing down. We believe that real estate sales are an important leading indicator of real estate investment, and the decline in sales will exert downward pressure on future real estate investment through at least two channels. First, the sales of many commercial houses are pre-sold by developers, and they are completed long after they are sold out, so the sales volume largely determines the future investment. Second, the decline in sales will make developers pessimistic about future sales revenue and price expectations, leading developers to reduce land purchases and develop new projects.
We use a distributed lag model to investigate the impact of the decline in real estate sales since 20 14 on future real estate development investment. The results of scenario analysis of this model are as follows: According to the real estate sales in the past few quarters, assuming that the growth rate of commercial housing sales area in the future will decrease by 0, 5 and 10 percentage points respectively compared with the second quarter of 20 14, the growth rate of real estate development investment in 20 15 will decrease by 2.5, 3.6 and 4.6 respectively compared with that in 20 14. Other assumptions of the above analysis include: foreign economies maintain steady growth, and the orientation and intensity of China's monetary and fiscal policies remain unchanged.
In addition, we also use the input-output table of 20 10 to estimate the impact of the downturn of the real estate industry (including the construction industry) on other related industries. Based on the total consumption coefficient and input-output data, the influence factors of downstream industries on upstream industries are calculated, and the actual output of real estate (including construction industry) is estimated based on the influence factors.
/kloc-the impact of 0/0% reduction on the actual output of various industries (see Figure 3). As can be seen from the figure, the industries that are obviously affected by the decline of real estate (including construction) output are cement, mining, steel, chemical industry and so on.
Appendix: Description of Forecast Model
The benchmark forecast of major variables (such as GDP, CPI, final consumption, capital formation, export and import) in this report is based on the macroeconomic econometric forecasting model developed by Research Bureau of People's Bank of China [Weibo]. In the study, the trend judgment of main variables such as GDP and CPI is also compared with the results of three VAR macro-prediction models. In the scenario and impact analysis of real estate industry, distributed lag model and input-output analysis method are adopted. These models and methods are briefly introduced below.
1. The macro econometric model always contains 89 behavior equations and identities, among which there are more than 20 core equations describing the main economic behaviors. The theoretical basis of the model is the assumption of neoclassical macroeconomics: in the short term, output and employment are determined by total demand because of the stickiness of prices and wages. With the passage of time, the output gap has an impact on prices and wages, and the commodity market and the labor market tend to be balanced for a long time. In the long run, the output is determined by supply, the price is fully adjusted, and the long-term Phillips curve is vertical. The model is divided into the following modules: (1) total demand module. The module is subdivided into residential consumption, government consumption, enterprise investment, government investment, import and export and other parts. (2) General supply module. This module determines the potential output through the production function. (3) Price module. Based on Phillips curve, inflation is determined by output gap, labor cost and non-labor cost. (4) Real estate module. This module includes two main parts: real estate investment and real estate price.
(5) Labor wage module. This module mainly includes variables such as wages and employment in rural and urban areas.
(6) Monetary and financial module. This module selects an interest rate as an exogenous variable, but can switch the exogenous variable to M2 growth rate. (7) financial module. This module includes two parts: fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure. Revenue is subdivided into tax revenue and other revenue, and government investment expenditure is an exogenous variable.
Second, the VAR macro-forecasting model When we analyze the main variables such as GDP growth, we refer to the results of three vector autoregressive (VAR) macro-forecasting models. The first one belongs to the traditional VAR quarterly model, which contains 17 macroeconomic variables.
The second VAR model is the result of cooperative research between Shanghai Institute of Excellence in Development and Research Bureau of China People's Bank, and we call it Logit-VAR monthly forecasting model. The model involves 14 core indicators and 14 key indicators. The forecast is divided into three steps: the first step is to transform the core indicators into state variables, aiming at strengthening the ability to judge the economic cycle; The second step is to use the VAR model composed of dependent variable (state) and independent variable (state) with different lag periods, and estimate the parameters by least square method, and then predict the most possible path of state variables in the future; The third step is to build another VAR model with state variables and horizontal values as independent and dependent variables to predict the growth rate of horizontal values. The third model is the result of cooperative research between the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China and Shanghai Institute of Advanced Finance. The model considers the interval transformation of trend growth and shock fluctuation at the same time, and captures two main trend intervals of China economy.
Thirdly, the scenario and impact analysis of real estate in the real estate model report is based on distributed lag model and input-output model. The distributed lag model takes the growth rate of real estate development investment as the explained variable, and takes the sales area of commercial housing, real estate investment growth rate, foreign economic growth rate, money supply growth rate, interest rate and the proportion of fiscal balance in GDP as the explained variable to model the lag and current growth rate. With regard to the impact of the decline in the output of the real estate industry on other industries, our analysis is based on the complete consumption coefficient of the input-output table, that is, every time a department provides a unit's final product, it needs to directly and indirectly consume the number of products or services of various departments.