At 24: 00 on July 26th, the14th domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open in 2022. Institutions generally predict that this round of domestic oil prices will usher in a "three-day losing streak" with a high probability, which is also the fourth downward adjustment during the year. During this pricing cycle, the international crude oil futures prices generally continued to fall. In the early part of this cycle, crude oil continued to fall under pressure due to the expected increase in inflation rate in the United States and the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. Although Saudi Arabia said that there was no clear plan to increase production in the later period, which led to the rebound of international oil prices, the market sentiment remained cautious and the rebound was not sustainable.

As of the close of external market on July 22nd, WTI September crude oil futures closed down 1.65 USD, down 1.7 1% to 94.70 USD/barrel. According to the most active contract, WTI September crude oil futures price fell by 2.9% compared with WTI August futures price on Friday of the previous week. Brent September crude oil futures closed down 0.66 USD, or 0.64%, to 103.20 USD/barrel, down 2.02% in the week.

It is understood that due to the influence of relevant factors, the measured domestic crude oil movement rate runs in a negative range, and the retail price limit of refined oil in this round may encounter a "three-day losing streak". It is estimated that by the close of July 22nd, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil on the 9th working day is -5.39%. It is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 340 yuan/ton, and the price of gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 0.25 yuan and 0.29 yuan/liter respectively. At the price adjustment window at 24: 00 on July 26, it is a foregone conclusion that the retail price limit of refined oil products will be lowered this round.

We noticed that according to this adjustment range, the owner will save more than 12.5 yuan by filling up a 50-liter fuel tank.

According to the calculation, on the 9th working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil was priced at -4.9 1% or -5.00% compared with the benchmark price, and the retail price limit of refined oil was tentatively lowered by 305 yuan at 24: 00 on July 26th.

According to statistics, before this year, domestic refined oil products have gone through 13 price adjustment windows, with gasoline prices increasing by 2040 yuan/ton and diesel prices increasing by 1965 yuan/ton. If this price reduction is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil will show a pattern of "10 up and 4 down" in 2022.

Susan Wang, an analyst at Lianchuang, said that if the retail price is lowered, the fuel cost of car owners will be reduced again. No.95 gasoline in some areas is expected to return to the "8 yuan era".

It is understood that the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24: 00 on August 9, 2022. It is predicted that the OPEC+meeting will decide the follow-up production plan and the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate soon. These two points will have a significant impact on the oil market in the second half of the year. Before the macro and supply sides are determined, the market will be cautious and wait-and-see, and the international oil price may keep a wide fluctuation trend.

Susan Wang believes that the market will remain volatile in the near future, waiting for further information. On the whole, negative factors still prevail, and domestic oil prices may remain weak. @20 19