After climbing again in September, the domestic pig price reached 24 yuan/kg, which also entered the second warning range of excessive rise. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out which stocks will be affected by the rise in pig prices, and then slow down. Let's have a look!

Pig prices entered the second warning of excessive rise.

In the early morning of September 29, the main contract of live pigs in the domestic futures market, 230 1, fell slightly again, closing at 22,275 yuan/ton in early trading.

On the spot market that day, the national pig price rose. According to the data of Baichuan Fu Ying, the average price of live pigs on the 29th was 24.24 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.37%. Near the end of the month, the pig slaughter of large pig enterprises is limited, the enthusiasm of farmers is poor, it is more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs, the market bullish sentiment is enhanced, and the pig price has risen to a certain extent.

In addition, according to the monitoring data of soupig. Com, on September 28th, the national average slaughter price of lean pigs was 24.03 yuan/kg, up 1 1.38 yuan/kg compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 1 1.65438. Recently, pig prices have maintained a high sideways consolidation trend, and the short-term upward resistance has increased significantly. The main reason is that with the approach of the holiday, the stocking of pigs before the holiday has basically come to an end. In addition, the phenomenon of secondary fattening gradually weakened after the continuous rise of pig prices, and the continuous cooling of frozen pork stored by the central government, the pig market once again showed a sideways shock trend.

In the third quarter of this year, the domestic prices of live pigs and pork showed a slight upward "V" trend.

According to Zhuo Chuang data, as of September 24th, the average transaction price of live pigs and the average market price of pork in the third quarter were 22.54 yuan/kg and 28.87 yuan/kg, respectively, up 46.3% and 44.8% from the previous month, up 57.44% and 5 1.48% respectively. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in the farmer's market in the third quarter was 3 1.09 yuan/kg, up 26.02% from the previous month and 24.56% from the same period last year.

Since the third quarter, pig breeding has also entered the profit range.

According to the data of Soupig.com, since June, 2022, under the condition of self-reproduction and self-support, the breeding profit of each fat pig has remained above 300 yuan/head, and the pig market has begun to turn losses into profits. By September 27th, 2022, under the condition of autotrophic breeding, the breeding profit of each pig is basically 500-600 yuan/pig.

After a phased increase since April this year, the price of live pigs has gone out of the previous trough and entered a relatively high level.

According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of September1September-23, the average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30% year-on-year, which entered the warning range of the second-level increase determined by "improving the government pork reserve adjustment mechanism and ensuring the supply and price stability in the pork market".

Li Xia, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, believes that there is great pressure on the pig market in the second fattening and the third quarter, and there is a reluctance to sell. With the approaching of school and Mid-Autumn Festival, the increase of demand and the price resistance at the breeding end boosted the price of pigs to rebound, and farmers were reluctant to sell them. The second fattening (mostly 100- 120 kg) diverted some pigs that should be slaughtered in the market, which led to a sharp decrease in the actual supply of pigs, making it difficult for slaughter enterprises to buy enough at low prices, and the market was in short supply at different stages, laying a solid market foundation for the increase of pig prices. At the same time, in the third quarter of this year, the average weight of live pigs remained at a high level during the year, with a quarterly average of122.32kg, an increase of 1.22% compared with the second quarter. Contrary to the seasonal trend that the average slaughter weight in the third quarter of 2017-202/kloc-0 was lower than that in the second quarter.

In September, the theoretical slaughter of live pigs decreased by about 5% from the previous month. Combined with the "interception" of secondary fattening and seasonal weight gain, it is estimated that the actual slaughter of pigs in September will decrease by about 10% from the previous month.

Four-wheel storage may affect the peak season market.

Since the third quarter, local governments at all levels have actively responded to the central reserve meat in recent months. The first three batches were put into production on September 8 18 and 23, with the capacity of 37,700 tons,14,400 tons and15,000 tons respectively.

According to the news released by the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the plan, the fourth batch of central pork reserves will be launched this week, and local governments will be guided to jointly launch pork reserves.

In this regard, Li Xia believes that the national and local governments will put in 200,000 tons of pork in September, which may reach the highest level in a single month. The main functions of this release are shown in two aspects: one is to directly increase the supply of pork, and the other is to urge the industry to maintain a normal pace of pig slaughter. Judging from the law, the impact of this release on the market will be concentrated in the fourth quarter.

Affected by the cyclical and seasonal supply reduction of the live pig industry itself, the prices of live pigs and pork showed a trend of high before and then rising slightly in the third quarter. Without considering the sudden factors such as conventional epidemic diseases, with the negative effects of loose supply of live pigs, rising risk of breeding costs, increasing multi-channel supply of pork and slow follow-up of terminal demand, it is expected that the domestic price center of live pigs and pork will move down in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Although there is a peak demand for traditional bacon from winter to around, at the end of the year, large enterprises may focus on the annual plan, and the price of pigs may be weak.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, there were 43.24 million sows in China at the end of August, an increase of 0.6% over July and 5.5% over the normal number. Although pork prices have risen rapidly recently, the overall pig production capacity is at a reasonable level. Strengthening market regulation and guidance is conducive to stabilizing the relationship between supply and demand, and it is unlikely that pork prices will rise sharply.

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently publicly stated that according to the growth law of pigs, pigs are generally raised for six months. According to the monitoring, in August, the number of pigs in Zhong Da, a nationwide pig farm, increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Recently, the big fat pig fattened twice entered the market, and the live weight of slaughter is also increasing. In addition, various places have put in reserve meat one after another, and the supply of pork will continue to increase during the National Day. In the later period, pork prices did not have the conditions for a sharp rise.

Pork concept leading stock

Zheng Hong technology 000702

The main business of Hunan Zheng Hong Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. is the research and development, production and sales of various feeds; Feed raw materials sales.

Yisheng stock 002458

This company is one of the largest ancestral broiler breeding companies in China. Two international broiler brands, AA+ and Ross 308, can be imported from the United States at the same time. It is also one of the largest breeders of ancestral broiler breeders in China.

Xinwufeng 600975

The company is the vice president unit of China Animal Husbandry Association, the president unit of Hunan Cold Chain Logistics Association and the director unit of China Animal Husbandry Association Pig Branch. Since its establishment, the company has been engaged in the business of supplying live pigs to Hong Kong and Macao, and is one of the major exporters of live pigs in mainland port companies.

Xin hope 000876

The main business of New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. includes feed, white feather meat and poultry, pig breeding and food. The main products are pig feed, poultry feed and fish feed. The main products of pig industry include breeding pigs and commercial pigs; The poultry industry mainly includes breeding poultry, commercial poultry and poultry slaughter. Food mainly includes livestock slaughter, deep processing of meat products, central kitchen and so on.