First, the efficiency analysis of China's current energy structure and resource utilization.
1. Unreasonable industrial structure and extensive economic growth mode: Since the beginning of the new century, China's economy has achieved a high-speed growth of 10% for five consecutive years, but economic growth relies too much on investment-driven heavy industries and high energy-consuming industries. In 2007, China's total energy consumption was 2.65 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 7.8% over the previous year. Among them, coal consumption was 2.58 billion tons, an increase of 7.9%; 340 million tons of crude oil, up 6.3%; Natural gas was 67.3 billion cubic meters, increasing by 19.9%. Although in the past 20 years, China has made remarkable achievements in energy utilization, with the gross domestic product quadrupling and energy consumption doubling, the low efficiency of energy utilization is still a prominent contradiction that restricts the economic and social development of China. The efficiency of one ton of coal in China is only 28.6% of that in the United States and 16.8% in the European Union. Japan's 10.3%, the unit energy consumption can only create less than 0.7 US dollars of GDP, while the world average is 3.2 US dollars, and Japan has reached 10.5 US dollars, which are 4.6 times and/kloc-0.5 times that of China respectively. At the same time, the waste of resources is serious, and the reuse rate of industrial water is lower than that of developed countries 15 to 25 percentage points. The total recovery rate of mineral resources in China is about 30%, and the recovery rate of resources in developed countries such as the United States, Australia, Germany and Canada can reach about 80%. The comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy in China is about 33%, which is 10 percentage point lower than that in developed countries. If the utilization efficiency can reach the level of advanced countries, it is equivalent to saving 300 million tons of oil or 430 million tons of standard coal. International experience shows that after entering the stage of capital-intensive industrialization, the economic growth potential will be further improved, and the consumption of energy resources will inevitably increase rapidly. In particular, the industrialization of China is that of a developing country with a population of 654.38+0.3 billion, which is unprecedented in human history. At present, China has become the country with the largest consumption of coal, steel, iron ore, alumina, copper and cement in the world. It is the second largest energy consumer in the world. Since 2003, China has consumed 30% of the world's energy and mineral resources, but China has not yet taken the lead in pricing these resources.
2. The task of energy conservation and emission reduction is very arduous, and the environmental pollution remains high: at present, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to China's economic growth is only about 40%. In addition to discharging pollutants in the process of energy consumption, a large number of harmful gases will also be produced in the process of energy exploitation, refining and supply. By the end of 2007, the installed power generation capacity in China had reached 713.29 million kilowatts, up by 14.36% year-on-year. Thermal power reached 554.42 million kilowatts, accounting for 77.73% of the total capacity, up14.59% year-on-year; Coal accounts for nearly 70% of energy consumption, oil accounts for 23.45%, and natural gas accounts for only 3%. The condition of energy resources determines that China's energy consumption structure dominated by coal is difficult to change in the short term, which also determines the arduous and long-term task of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the discharge of major pollutants in China was originally planned to decrease by 10% in 2005 compared with 2000. However, the statistical data in 2005 showed that the emission reduction of a considerable number of pollutants, such as soot and chemical oxygen demand, did not reach the expected goal. In 2006, the national sulfur dioxide emission was 25.94 million tons, an increase of 65.438 0.8% compared with 2005. The total discharge of chemical oxygen demand in the whole year was 65.438+0.438+0.2%, up 65.438+0.2% year-on-year. Compared with developed countries, China's wastewater discharge per unit GDP is four times that of developed countries. One third of the country's land is polluted by acid rain, and the annual economic loss exceeds 654.38+00 billion yuan, which directly threatens the safety of 654.38+03 billion population and 654.38+06 billion cultivated land. In 2007, among the 557 monitored cities, there were 389 cities with air quality reaching Grade II or above, accounting for 69.8% of the monitored cities. Grade III cities 152, accounting for 27.3%; There are 16 cities that are inferior to Grade III, accounting for 2.9%. According to the economic development trend of China, the World Bank predicts that in 2020, the economic cost of diseases caused by coal-burning pollution in China will reach $390 billion, accounting for 13% of GDP.
3. From the analysis of China's resource conditions and foreign trade structure, China's resource price level has been low for a long time, and it has been playing the role of "world factory" in recent years, which not only leads to the direct export of high energy consumption, high pollution, resource products and even energy resources, but also expands the pressure of trade surplus and RMB appreciation. The lack of "political achievements" and cost awareness makes China's scarce resources even scarcer. According to the statistics of relevant departments, the export volume of indirect energy needed to produce goods with trade surplus in China increased by 65,438 0.98 in 2005, with an average annual increase of 65,438 0.4.22%, reaching 330 million tons of standard oil in 2005. Excluding energy imports, China's net energy exports have increased year by year in recent years, from 77 million tons of standard oil in 1999 to 222 million tons of standard oil in 2005. The huge price paid by the ecological environment has caused some local economies to commit suicide. China is currently the second largest energy producer and consumer in the world, but it is not rich in energy resources. According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, China's proven reserves of coal, oil and natural gas account for 1 1%, 1.4% and 1.2% respectively, and the per capita share is 55% and 65438 respectively of the world average. Secondly, the occurrence and distribution of energy resources are uneven, the mining conditions are poor, and the dependence on oil imports exceeds 40%. Experts predict that by 2020, if the population of China is14-1500 million, it will need 2.6-2.8 billion tons of standard coal; By 2050, if the population is1.5-1.60 billion, 3.5-4 billion tons of standard coal will be needed. According to experts' estimation, the remaining recoverable reserves of coal in China are 90 billion tons, which can be mined for less than a hundred years; The remaining recoverable reserves of oil are 2.3 billion tons, which can only be mined for 14 years, and the remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas are 63 10/0 billion cubic meters, which can only be mined for 32 years. Energy supply has become a basic factor restricting economic growth, and this phenomenon will exist for a long time in China.
Second, some thoughts on implementing energy saving and maintaining sustainable development.
1, accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, and pay equal attention to development and saving: during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the energy consumption index of China's unit GDP will drop from10.22 tons of standard coal/10,000 yuan in 2005 to 0.98 tons of standard coal/10,000 yuan in 20 10, a decrease of about 20%, and energy saving has been regarded by experts as the same as coal and oil. Therefore, we should first adjust the industrial structure and change the mode of economic growth, improve the manufacturing level of key technologies and major equipment, accelerate the elimination of backward industrial production technologies and processes, and take energy efficiency and environmental assessment as important quantitative indicators of industrial development policies, which is a long-term strategy to alleviate China's energy shortage. In 2007, China shut down small thermal power14.38 million kilowatts. According to the calculation, the coal consumption per kilowatt hour for large units with 600,000 kilowatts and small units with 10 kilowatts or less is 100 to 150 grams of standard coal. Therefore, on the one hand, we should pay close attention to the task of shutting down 50 million kilowatts of small thermal power units, 55 million tons of steelmaking capacity and 250 million tons of cement capacity during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, encourage coal-electricity joint ventures or integrated operation of coal-electricity transportation, and vigorously carry out clean utilization of coal, which means that 60-90 million tons of standard coal can be saved every year and pollution emissions can be greatly reduced. According to another calculation, if the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in China is increased by one percentage point, and the proportion of the added value of the secondary industry is correspondingly decreased by one percentage point, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP can be reduced by about 1 percentage point. In energy development, we should learn from the experience of western developed countries and make full use of two kinds of resources and two markets at home and abroad. The government should encourage more powerful enterprises to invest in overseas oil exploration and actively promote international energy cooperation.
2. Accelerate the adjustment of energy structure and vigorously develop renewable energy and clean energy: In 2007, China's hydropower reached 654.38+0.4526 million kilowatts, accounting for 20.36% of the total capacity, down 0.53 percentage point year-on-year, and nuclear power generation exceeded 60 billion kWh, but the proportion was still small. Nowadays, new energy technologies such as solar energy, wind energy, biogas, geothermal energy and ocean energy have been widely developed in developed countries. In 2006, global new energy accounted for 13.6% of total energy consumption. For example, nuclear power in France accounts for 70% of the installed capacity. The development speed and level of new energy in China are not only far below that of most developed countries, but even behind India, Brazil and other countries. A single energy supply model based on one energy source can no longer effectively guarantee the comprehensive and sustainable development of China's economy. China has a vast territory, so it must embark on a new road of energy development with China characteristics. While actively promoting the construction of nuclear power, China can develop about 253 million kilowatts of wind energy resources, with prospective reserves of geothermal resources of135.35 billion tons of standard coal and proven reserves of 316 billion tons of standard coal. The reserves of solar energy, biomass energy and ocean energy are among the highest in the world. The theoretical reserves of hydraulic resources are equivalent to the annual power generation of 6. 1.9 trillion kwh, and the economically exploitable annual power generation is about 1.76 trillion kwh, which is equivalent to 1.2% of the world's hydraulic resources, ranking first in the world, and has already possessed the foundation of large-scale and industrialized development. At present, due to the high cost, the competitiveness of new energy technologies entering the market is limited, so the state must formulate practical preferential policies, increase support for the development and utilization of new energy technologies in China, and promote the adjustment of energy structure to renewable energy. According to experts' calculation, each ton of renewable resources can save one resource 120 tons, reduce the waste water generation 100 tons, increase the output value by about 300 yuan, and generate profit 500 yuan.
3. Adjust the export structure of products by using price leverage and resource supervision: From the perspective of economic cost, with the stricter requirements of environmental protection and pollution discharge, the original external cost, or the cost originally borne by society, is transformed into the cost of production and operation of enterprises, thus increasing the cost of the whole economic operation. At the same time, as China and some developing countries step into the stage of industrialization, the global demand for resource products will form a new round of peak, which will make the prices of resource products rise for a long time, and resource constraints will accompany the whole process of industrialization in China. Therefore, we must incorporate resource and environmental constraints into the strategic framework of China's participation in international division of labor as soon as possible, gradually form an international division of labor system that conforms to China's actual national conditions and long-term interests, prohibit the direct export of energy, strictly limit the export of high-energy-consuming products, further accelerate the export of resource-based products to high value-added products, liberalize the import quota of scarce materials in China, and reduce the import tax rate. In terms of resource supervision, it is particularly necessary to establish a price formation mechanism and a price system to promote the property right reform and ecological compensation mechanism of mineral resources in China, so that prices can truly reflect the scarcity of factors and promote energy conservation, emission reduction and structural adjustment. At the same time, the measurement basis of energy tax should be changed from the current output of enterprises to the recoverable reserves of resources allocated to enterprises, so as to urge enterprises to improve the resource recovery rate as much as possible.
4. On February 26th, 2007, 65438, China released the White Paper "China's Energy Situation and Policies", which pointed out that energy conservation and emission reduction must not be relaxed before tightening, and GDP growth must be based on ensuring the completion of energy conservation and emission reduction targets. In the process of industrialization in 100, the United States consumed more than 39 billion tons of oil, nearly 7.3 billion tons of steel and a large number of other mineral products. In the process of rapid development of heavy chemical industry in the future, China has never enjoyed the cheap resource supply and environmental capacity enjoyed by developed countries. China has acceded to many international environmental conventions, and must undertake international environmental obligations commensurate with its development level. The newly revised energy conservation law was implemented on April 1 this year. At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the legislation of energy law and circular economy law, which embody the energy strategy and policy orientation, formulate relevant supporting laws and regulations, truly put energy conservation and emission reduction into the legal track, and manage enterprises according to law. On the other hand, it is necessary to introduce China's energy sustainable development and its evaluation index system as soon as possible, improve the GDP and energy consumption index system, incorporate energy consumption into the comprehensive evaluation and annual assessment of local economic and social development, establish and improve the energy-saving information release system, and build a unified and efficient energy supervision and management and accountability system. Intensify publicity, gradually promote energy conservation in buildings and transportation, advocate a resource-saving lifestyle, and establish a national awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection. Finally, we should speed up the establishment of China's energy futures market, strive for energy demanders to set energy futures prices, and then guide spot prices to promote economic growth from relying mainly on increasing material resources consumption to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of workers and innovating management, so as to achieve sound and rapid coordinated development of economy, society and environment.