China Grain and Oil Information Network 2010-5-2214:17: 23 Source: The corn market at home and abroad has shown diametrically opposite trends recently, among which: the domestic corn market is affected by many factors such as the revision of the trading rules of temporary storage corn, the strong expectation of tight grain supply and the increasing bullish psychology of market participants, and its price has continued. Recently, with the slow pace of corn import in China, the weather in the United States is fine, the prices of international commodity markets around have fallen sharply, and the international corn prices have fallen again. Below we will do the following analysis according to our own situation, for reference only. 1. Recently, the domestic and international corn market prices are 1, and the domestic corn market prices are rising steadily. Recently, the domestic corn market price has continued to show a steady upward trend as a whole. As of May 17, the purchase price of second-class corn in our province (unit: yuan/kg, the same below) was 1.70- 1.78, with an average purchase price of around 1.75, up 0.03 from last week. The delivery price of secondary corn in our province (unit: yuan/ton, the same below) 1840, Heilongjiang 1700- 1720 and Liaoning 1860 were all the same as last week. Dalian Port 1970, up 20 from last week, and Guangdong Port 2040, up 30; Shanghai 2 100, up 80%; Fujian was 2080, up 50. At the same time, in order to obtain grain resources, some corn deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have recently continuously raised their purchase prices. Take our province as an example. At present, the listing price of corn in Siping Tiancheng Company is 1780, which is 30% higher than last week, and the daily purchase volume is several hundred tons. The listing price of corn in Songyuan Sailida Company 1780, up by 50%, and the daily purchase volume is more than 200 tons. 2. The international corn market price fell again. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, the sharp drop in international crude oil futures prices and the good weather in the US corn producing areas, the international corn price has recently fallen again. As of May 17, the corn futures price of Chicago Agricultural Exchange (CBOT) was US$ 3.56/bushel (equivalent to RMB 957/ton), down 5% from the beginning of May. The FOB price of US No.2 yellow corn delivered in the Gulf of Mexico in June was1US$ 65/ton, equivalent to RMB 1 126 yuan/ton, down 5% from the beginning of May; The total cost of China Port after tax payment is about 1.962 yuan/ton, which is 2% lower than that at the beginning of May. Second, the analysis of the influencing factors of the recent corn market trend (1) The domestic market 1, the auction of temporary storage corn is still hot. This week (May 18), after the auction was suspended for one week, the temporary corn auction sales in Northeast China continued. Although the sales rules have been revised, the deep-processing corn enterprises in Northeast China and the feed enterprises in South China, which are in great demand and have strong market pricing power, are excluded from the temporary storage auction, and the quantity and use of corn that feed enterprises in three northeastern provinces and one district can purchase are also restricted in the rules, but the scene of hot transactions remains unchanged. Among them, the national temporary storage plan sold 799,500 tons of corn, and the actual turnover was 796,800 tons, with a turnover rate of 99.66%, and the average transaction price was 175 1 yuan/ton. In fact, since April this year, the auction of temporary storage corn has maintained a very high transaction rate, and the average transaction price is gradually rising. According to market analysis, the revision of auction rules has not changed the big supply and demand pattern, and the hot transaction situation still shows that the supply of corn market in the current producing areas is relatively tight. At the same time, although the revised rules have curbed the purchasing demand of southern grain enterprises to a certain extent, this part of demand may turn to the Huanghuai market in North China, which indirectly drives the price of corn in Huanghuai in North China to rise. 2, corn deep processing enterprises to raise prices to buy. Due to the restriction of the bidding and sales rules of temporary storage corn on the procurement of deep processing enterprises in Northeast China and feed enterprises in South China, they had to purchase through market channels in the later stage. However, considering that there is little surplus grain left in the hands of farmers and traders in Northeast China, the market supply capacity is greatly reduced, and the inventory of deep processing enterprises is generally insufficient. Recently, the deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have a strong willingness to raise prices, which will further aggravate the current tight supply atmosphere in the corn market, and then lead to a continuous increase in prices. 3. Market participants are bullish. In the current situation of rising corn market prices, market participants are generally optimistic about the market outlook. The main reasons are as follows: On the one hand, corn production in Northeast China was reduced last year. Although the situation of oversupply has not fundamentally changed, there are differences in the extent of reduction, which has affected market expectations to some extent; On the other hand, due to the continuous low temperature in Northeast China this year, the sowing date of corn has been postponed, which may have a certain impact on corn production this year, and the market is expected to be bullish. (2) The international market 1, the global corn supply and demand situation is relatively loose. According to the latest supply and demand report of USDA, it is estimated that the global corn output in 2010/2010 will be 835.03 million tons, an increase of 29160,000 tons over the previous year. The consumption is estimated to be 827.87 million tons, an increase of18.99 million tons over the previous year; The ending inventory is expected to be 1.542 100 tons, an increase of 7 17000 tons over the previous year and the highest level since 2000/0 1 year. Among them: in 2010/2010/year, the corn output in the United States was 3,396/kloc-0 million tons, an increase of 6.6 million tons over the previous year; The estimated consumption is 287.03 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons over the previous year, of which the consumption of corn ethanol is 6.5438+0.10.68 million tons, an increase of 5.08 million tons over the previous year; It is estimated that the ending inventory will be 46010.9 million tons, an increase of 2.03 million tons over the previous year. As can be seen from the above data, the global corn production and inventory increased at 2010/201,especially the storage-consumption ratio reached 19%, which was higher than the safe level of 17%- 18%. 2. The international crude oil price has fallen sharply. Since May, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply due to negative factors such as the sharp drop in global stock markets and the International Energy Agency's downward adjustment of this year's crude oil consumption growth forecast. At present, the international crude oil price has fallen to 69 yuan per barrel, down 20% from the beginning of May. The decline in international crude oil prices has played a certain role in restraining the rise in corn prices. Mainly reflected in two aspects: first, the decline in crude oil prices will lower international sea freight; Second, the decline in crude oil prices is also not conducive to the production of biofuels, which indirectly inhibits the demand for corn. Third, the preliminary outlook of the market trend in the later period Looking forward to the market outlook, it is expected that the domestic corn price will remain high in the short term, driven by a series of factors such as the reduction of corn production last year, the postponement of corn planting in the northeast producing area this year, and the limited grain source in the market, and the supply of grain sources will be more tense after summer, and the price will still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. Although increasing the quantity of imported corn can alleviate the shortage of domestic corn supply under the market background of tight domestic corn supply, rising prices and smooth corn planting in the United States, the import inspection of genetically modified corn in China is very strict at present, and it is difficult to apply for import quotas, so the impact of imported corn on the domestic market will be relatively limited.