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How does a commodity get out of the futures of an independent market?
It is very necessary to make an in-depth study on the cyclical ups and downs of the whole market. Through the record of historical trend, statistics of fluctuation range, approximate calculation of fluctuation rate, switching style of each cycle, etc. It doesn't take much time to get a general understanding of related varieties. In fact, the process of slowly accumulating trading feelings is the process of gradually getting familiar with and deepening the understanding of varieties, and there is no shortcut. The shortcut mentioned here is to be familiar with and understand the price fluctuation law of related varieties, grasp the general direction, and make basic preparations for better grasping the entry, increase, decrease and leave in the future. When traders are very familiar with a certain variety, once the market changes, they will perceive it in advance, and the sensitivity of perception depends on their usual efforts. Of course, this is a long process.

Shortcut 3: Identify and process market information.

With the continuous enrichment of futures market varieties, the industrial chain constructed by futures varieties is more comprehensive and complex, which also puts forward higher requirements for the personal quality and information processing ability of futures traders. In particular, traders who combine futures with cash, hedging with basis trading face a more complicated environment and a more severe test. It is much more difficult for ordinary individual traders and newcomers to the market to receive and process a large amount of information from the two markets. Whether there are shortcuts to avoid these shortcomings or deficiencies is a matter of great concern to traders.

First of all, the source of information must be true and effective, and the timeliness and importance must be determined. We should be cautious in discriminating rumors and gossip.

Secondly, for important data and data release time, traders can establish a small "database" according to their personal energy and ability, and make records to facilitate comparison and simple analysis.

Finally, we should have a certain understanding of the industrial chain of related varieties, and the correlation between varieties should be moderate and clear. Under our own analysis system, we can find out the clues of market operation through the mutual verification of futures and spot data of related varieties.

Shortcut 4: study the key reports of key institutions

At present, the fees and free market research and development reports can be said to be a dime a dozen, which are both fair and reasonable. Taken together, traders are often in a dilemma and have a headache. How to treat the market analysis of various investment institutions and use valuable analysis reports for their own use is very important. First of all, after getting all kinds of R&D reports, don't rush to see the results, let alone draw conclusions. We should pay attention to and carefully analyze the logic in the report. The important data in the report, especially the scarce data after processing, can be studied emphatically, or they can be interrelated and grafted with their own analysis system. A clear understanding of the analytical context and deduction logic of the report is more important than the conclusion of the report itself. Secondly, various investment institutions and information consulting companies have different research depth and accuracy for different varieties. We should be able to understand them by listening to the suggestions of our predecessors or by reading and comparing them for a certain period of time. It is necessary to deeply understand and study the key reports of key institutions and find out their tendencies. Finally, through the comparison and logical analysis of different types of reports, we can draw different conclusions, and then make differential analysis according to our own deduction, which will get more comprehensive data, market operation logic and other information.

To sum up, the first is to screen varieties through the simplest technical analysis, the second is to define the fluctuation cycle of commodity prices through fundamentals, the third is to build your own "small system" efficiently, and the fourth is to make your own judgments by using the data and analysis logic reported by various institutions. These four shortcuts can help traders, especially those who are new to the market, quickly understand the varieties, formulate trading strategies, and implement them in an orderly and steady manner, which is more effective than making mistakes by mistake.