Figure 1: daily K-line chart of Shanghai Nickel Index
0 1 batteries in new energy automobile industry tend to be high in nickel.
65438+1October 1 1, Passenger Transport Association released the national production and sales data of passenger cars in June 65438+February 2020. In June 5438+February, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger cars was 2 1.00 million, up 53.6% year-on-year and 15.6% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 34,000, up by11.7% year-on-year. The wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was176,000, up 45.9% year-on-year. In June 5438+February, the new energy passenger car market was diversified, and the enterprises that broke through the sales of 10,000 vehicles included SAIC-GM-Wuling 4 1.089, BYD 28,075, Tesla China 23,804, SAIC passenger car 18, 167, Great Wall Motor 10, and so on.
In 2020, the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles will be1170,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, especially in the second half of the year. In 2020, the retail sales of new energy vehicles will be 1 109000 vehicles, up 9.8% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles at home and abroad will show a good overall growth performance.
This is also reflected in the stock prices of various new energy vehicles:
Figure 2: Tesla's annual stock price chart
Figure 3: Weilai annual stock price chart
Fig. 4: annual stock price chart of xpeng automobile company.
Figure 5: Annual stock price trend chart of Wuling Automobile.
The share prices of these new energy vehicles have at least doubled in one year, especially the leading enterprise Tesla, whose share price has increased by nearly 10 times.
In order to improve the popularity of new energy vehicles, it is necessary to improve the life of batteries and reduce production costs. At present, the market is generally optimistic about high nickel batteries.
The so-called high nickel battery not only greatly increases the proportion of nickel in the battery electrode material, but also effectively reduces the estimated amount of metal with the increase of nickel proportion, thus reducing the battery cost. At the same time, the high nickel battery also improves the overall energy density of the battery and greatly improves the battery life. High nickel battery will be the mainstream direction in the future.
Tesla has been promoting the development and application of high nickel battery materials.
Just in the second quarter earnings conference call this year, Musk publicly stressed: "Any mining company, please mine more nickel. If you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will provide you with a long-term huge contract. "
According to foreign media reports, Tesla is buying a lot of low-carbon nickel from Canadian mining company Giga Metals to meet the needs of battery manufacturing. At the same time, Tesla is planning to establish a factory in Batang, Central Java, Indonesia, which is a global nickel mine base. Combined with a news in the first half of 2020, Tesla applied for a patent for single crystal nickel-cobalt-aluminum electrode. Increasing the proportion of nickel may improve the energy density and battery life. The battery using this new electrode will be able to charge 4,000 times, and the total cruising range is expected to exceed 6,543.8+0,000 miles, which is about 6,543.8+0.6 million kilometers. "
With the upgrading and application of high nickel batteries, the demand for nickel will continue to increase, which will support the price of nickel.
Indonesia banned the export of raw ore, and the supply of ore trade declined.
According to the data of US Geological Survey (USGS), the global nickel reserves in 20 19 are 89 million tons. According to the current mining speed, these nickel resources can be mined for about 37 years. Among them, the top three countries with the largest nickel reserves are Indonesia, Australia and Brazil, accounting for 60% of the world's nickel resources.
Nickel reserves in China are scarce, accounting for only 3% of the world's reserves. China's nickel resources are mainly imported from Indonesia and the Philippines.
Domestic laterite nickel ore basically depends on imports, and the main sources are the Philippines and Indonesia, accounting for more than 90% of the supply. These two countries are the best sources of nickel imports from China, both in terms of transportation distance and supply. However, in 2020, Indonesia officially banned the export of nickel ore, and the main exporters of nickel ore changed from Indonesia and the Philippines to the Philippines. However, after the development in recent years, some high-grade mines in the Philippines are facing the status quo of exhaustion. At present, the mining of high-grade nickel ore is gradually declining, and the expansion capacity of output supply is limited, which is still not enough to meet the international trade demand of Indonesia's missing minerals. Although China has increased its resource imports from Australia, it is obviously limited in transportation costs and quota restrictions of exporting countries, and its expansion space is very limited.
With the increasing demand and decreasing supply, nickel will face a tight balance between supply and demand in the future.
How to interpret the market outlook in 2003?
Judging from the weekly K-line cycle, Shanghai Nickel is still in a bullish trend.
Figure 6: K-line chart of Shanghai Nickel 2 103 contract week.
Judging from the daily K-line level, the current maximum pressure is 135000. If you can close above this price for two consecutive days, it is a breakthrough.
Figure 7: K-line chart of Shanghai Nickel 2 103 contract day.
In the medium and long term, I think it is more likely that Shanghai Nickel will fluctuate higher in the afternoon. However, this position has great resistance, and investors who try more should control their positions.
This article comes from Meierya Futures.