introduce
In the past three years, local asset management companies (AMC) have basically been approved according to the logic of one province and one company, and basically formed a Chinese-style "bad bank" pattern of "four AMCs+local provincial AMCs"
As early as 20 13, China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Relevant Issues Concerning the Qualification Conditions for Local Asset Management Companies to Carry out Bulk Non-performing Assets Acquisition and Disposal of Financial Enterprises (hereinafter referred to as "Yin Jian Fa [2065438+03] No.45"). In principle, the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government can only establish or authorize 1 local asset management companies to participate in the shares in their own provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).
In the past three years, local asset management companies (AMC) have basically been approved according to the logic of one province and one family, basically forming a Chinese-style "bad bank" pattern of "four AMCs+local provincial AMCs".
However, with the rapid increase of non-performing assets in the banking system since last year, a change is taking place quietly. In addition to provincial AMC, municipal AMC has been born recently, resulting in two licensed AMC institutions in many provinces.
Some insiders have analyzed that when the issuance of provincial AMC licenses comes to an end, the licenses of prefecture-level AMC may become the main force for future approval. "According to our calculation, the value of an AMC license can reach up to 654.38+0 billion yuan, which is not difficult to understand. Why is capital entering? " The industry insider said.
The number of local "bad banks" has increased to 28.
On July 15, Guangxi Jinkong Asset Management Company was officially unveiled. As a local AMC in Guangxi, the goal is to promote banks to speed up the disposal of non-performing assets and effectively prevent various local financial risks. Guangxi Financial Investment Group, the investor of Guangxi Jinkong Assets, said that in the next five years, Jinkong Assets is expected to realize the acquisition and disposal of non-performing assets of 30 billion yuan.
On the 4th of this month, Hyde announced that it had obtained the Reply of Xizang Autonomous Region People's Government on Agreeing to Establish Lihai Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Zang Fu Han [2016] No.97). The internal reply included allowing the establishment of Hyde Asset Management Co., Ltd., determining the business scope of Hyde asset management acquisition and entrusted management of non-performing assets, and obtaining the local AMC management license approved by the Ministry of Finance and the China Banking Regulatory Commission. This means that the Tibet AMC license has landed.
In addition, Chongqing Yukang Asset Management Co., Ltd. was established a few days ago to undertake the asset restructuring and debt restructuring functions of Chongqing Yufu Group, a local AMC approved earlier in Chongqing.
According to statistics, up to now, CBRC has approved 24 local provincial licensed AMCs, covering the first batch in Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui. The second batch of Chongqing, Beijing, Liaoning, Fujian and Tianjin; The third batch of Guangxi, Shandong, Hubei, Jilin and Ningxia; The fourth batch of Henan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Hunan and Shaanxi; And then Jiangxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tibet and other places.
"As far as I know, the rest areas where local AMC has not been established are stepping up preparations. It is estimated that by the end of the third quarter, local AMC will be distributed to various provinces. " The above-mentioned insiders said.
Statistics of this newspaper show that local AMC has not been established in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan and Heilongjiang.
In addition to local provincial AMC, prefecture-level cities are also actively applying for AMC licenses. Since the second half of last year, four prefecture-level AMCs, including Wenzhou in Zhejiang, Qingdao in Shandong, Xiamen in Fujian and Suzhou in Jiangsu, have been approved for establishment. Previously, these four provinces have established provincial asset management companies.
"A number of cities are applying for AMC licenses, such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province, but I expect that the scale of AMC at the city level should not be very large. The pattern of two AMCs in the same province will generally only appear in high-risk areas, such as Wenzhou, Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta. Banks are concentrated, and Jiangsu Province focuses on handling the bad things of Wuxi Suntech." The above-mentioned insiders said.
At the same time, the newspaper learned that although it is a prefecture-level AMC, it has the same "treatment" as the provincial AMC in terms of business scope, that is, it can jump out of the city and purchase and dispose of non-performing assets within the province. For provincial AMC, this is obviously a supplement to the four major competitors.
"In fact, the Big Four have been doing business in local areas, but in comparison, their business advantages are not as good as local AMC, especially when dealing with local bad state-owned assets, local governments are more inclined to bring local AMC with state-owned assets background to deal with it." The industry insider said.
How to resolve the thirst for funds?
Although the local AMC has also obtained the same license as the four major asset management companies, the CBRC has also set strict conditions for it, that is, "the non-performing assets purchased by real estate asset management companies should be disposed of by debt restructuring and may not be transferred to the outside world".
In other words, compared with the four major AMCs, local AMCs can only "get in and get out" and "just can't resell directly." Wu Hao, partner of Telford Asset Management, said.
With the increase of the total amount of non-performing assets, this will inevitably increase the financial pressure of local AMC. Non-performing asset management industry is a typical capital-intensive industry. On the one hand, it takes a lot of money to buy bad assets of banks in bulk, usually more than 1 100 million yuan. On the other hand, the whole collection and disposal process is complicated and lengthy, with great uncertainty. The short collection period is 1 year, generally about 2 years, and the long collection period is 3-5 years or even longer.
The funds of local AMC in various business processes mainly come from shareholders' capital injection and debt funds, including bank loans and bond issuance. For example, Chongqing Yukang Company recently signed a strategic cooperation agreement with 2 1 bank, and its comprehensive credit exceeded16 billion yuan.
The typical sequela of single debt financing is high asset-liability ratio. For example, the asset-liability ratios of Zhejiang local AMC Zhejiang merchants as of 20 14, 12, 3 1 and 20 15, 1 are 79.06% and 76.86% respectively. Moreover, with the continuous increase of operating leverage, the interest expense is also increasing year by year, the operational risk is also increasing correspondingly, and the channels and space for debt financing are also limited.
How to reduce the debt ratio and solve the problem of capital hunger at the same time has become a top priority for local AMC, and listing has become one of the feasible and preferred paths.
After Hyde Assets wholly owned by Hyde was approved by Tibet AMC, it laid an important foundation for its transformation of non-performing asset management business. It is understood that Hyde's main real estate business has been basically divested, and the management of non-performing assets in the future will be Hyde's main direction, which also makes Hyde the only pure non-performing AMC investment target in the current A-share market.
In March of this year, Zhejiang Dongfang disclosed the plan of issuing shares to purchase assets and raising matching funds and related party transactions. According to this plan, Zhejiang Dongfang plans to acquire the 100% equity of Zheshang Assets, 56% equity of Jin Zhe Trust, 0/00% equity of Dida Futures and 50% equity of China-Korea Life Insurance held by Guo Mao Group and Zhong Da at a price of 765,438+69 million yuan. At the same time, the matching funds raised by private placement shall not exceed 6.225 billion yuan.
It turns out that Zheshang Assets is the "highlight" of Zhejiang Dongfang's restructuring plan, and its transaction price reaches 5.536 billion yuan, accounting for 77% of the total transaction amount. Moreover, nearly half of the matching funds raised are used for the capital increase of Zheshang assets. However, on the evening of June 12, Zhejiang Dongfang announced again that due to changes in the regulatory and market environment, it was decided to adjust the restructuring plan to ensure the smooth implementation of major asset restructuring and no longer take Zheshang assets as one of the underlying assets. Therefore, the listing of Zheshang assets is a dream.
In addition, Guangdong local AMC Cai Yue assets are currently undergoing share reform, ready to go public. It is understood that in 20 15 years, Cai Yue realized cash recovery of assets141700 million yuan, increased assets under management by 22.6 billion yuan, realized profits of 583 million yuan and managed assets stock of 50.8 billion yuan.
The value behind 654.38+0 billion
Some insiders have analyzed that when the issuance of provincial AMC licenses comes to an end, the licenses of prefecture-level AMC may become the main force for future approval. "According to our calculation, the value of an AMC license can reach up to 654.38+0 billion yuan, which is not difficult to understand. Why do capital enter first? " The industry insider said.
"The valuation of the license value to 654.38+0 billion yuan is obviously overestimated. I think a local AMC license transfer form may bring 50 million or even more income. According to the price-earnings ratio of 654.38+00 times, the valuation is roughly in the 500 million range. " Wu Ge, managing partner of Telford Assets, said that the explicit value of AMC license at present is to buy non-performing assets of financial enterprises in bulk, but the invisible value does not stop there.
"The biggest hidden value of AMC license lies in assisting credit financial institutions to move tables, the most important of which is to help banks move tables to reduce the bank's book non-performing rate. Although the business rate is low, the transaction volume is large, which is quite profitable for AMC. " Wu Hao said.
At the end of March this year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Regulating the Acquisition of Non-performing Assets of Financial Asset Management Companies (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which explicitly prohibited the listing of non-performing assets of banks through the four major asset management companies for the first time.
"With the promulgation of this notice, I think the value of AMC's table transfer business will be reduced by 80%." Wu Hao said.
"In addition to the transfer form, another invisible value of AMC is to help real buyers of non-performing assets to be a' channel' by using the identity of more than 10 qualified buyers. This is also because AMC is the only legal buyer in China who accepts the bulk transfer of non-performing assets by financial institutions. At present, the business rate is high, but the overall scale is not large, and the rate market has dropped from 1% to 65438. Wu Hao said.
For local AMC, the acquired non-performing assets cannot be transferred to the outside world, which will inevitably lead to "indigestion" for a long time: the huge scale of non-performing assets actually exceeds the disposal capacity of the asset management company itself.
"In fact, local AMC is also transferring non-performing asset packages in disguise. The typical detour is the transfer of non-performing asset income rights." The above-mentioned insiders revealed.
The insider also revealed that recently, the industry is exploring the possibility of releasing local AMC asset packages and releasing local AMC cash flow through securitization of non-performing assets, and it is estimated that there will be results soon.