Global corn supply and demand situation
Thousand hectares, thousand tons
From the global supply and demand situation, if the supply of the two major corn producing areas in the United States and China is in short supply, it is impossible for other major corn producing areas to have a recovery and alternative yield growth, mainly because of the limited planting area and scale. The spot transaction of corn can't keep up with the higher price, and there is a very broad imagination space in the later period. Since the global financial crisis, countries have issued a large number of currencies to maintain economic stability, and the current amount of funds is several times that since 2007. The entry of these funds will promote the price amplification. Therefore, the rise of corn in the United States is the tip of the iceberg, and its value will be higher in the later period. The era of food crisis may begin with corn.
Third, changes in the domestic corn market.
Due to the increase in domestic corn production this year, the current price is relatively stable. From the perspective of planting structure, corn in North China and Huanghuai has been listed, while corn in Northeast China will not be listed in large quantities until the middle period of 10 to10. Therefore, most of the corn purchased by southern enterprises comes from North China and Huanghuai, and the output in these areas is about 80 million tons. Judging from domestic consumption (monthly consumption1700-180,000 tons), it is only enough to maintain four months' consumption, that is, during the Spring Festival, the corn in North China and Huanghuai will be completely digested, while the corn in Northeast China has always had transportation bottlenecks, so corn will be imported in April next year. We can see that the price of corn in the United States is 400 higher than that in China-600 yuan. There is almost no room for domestic corn to fall, so the total amount of corn in Northeast China can maintain domestic consumption until September, but it is almost digested to zero. Moreover, the domestic inventory situation has changed this year, and the northeast corn may not be completely converted into circulation, so the northeast high-quality corn will be more expensive in the later period, which will be a rare procurement opportunity for spot enterprises at present.
Fourth, policy factors.
1. We think it is unlikely that the state will implement the temporary purchasing and storage policy this year. In the first two years, because of the low price of corn, the state implemented a temporary purchasing and storage policy. This year's price is not low, and there is little surplus grain left in the hands of the state reserve and local reserve, so it is of little significance to raise prices in policy.
It is really necessary to replenish the grain reserve. In order to ensure food security, the state must build its own stocks, which greatly promoted the rise of corn prices.
3. In terms of deep processing, the state may introduce regulatory policies and continue to reduce the consumption of deep processing enterprises. Feed consumption is certain and must be guaranteed.
4. China's macro economy is improving, and it will continue to implement the policy of maintaining growth and promoting people's livelihood, and there will be no extreme fiscal and monetary policies.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) technical analysis and time period
American corn futures index chart, at the beginning of September, 2065438+00, American corn prices began to break through the bottom box after more than two years of consolidation. Mid-and long-term buying opportunities have begun to emerge. Driven by favorable fundamentals and capital, US corn has ushered in a bull market foundation. The forward price has just started, and its forward price space should directly point to the previous high of 800 cents. Since we believe that the bull market foundation of corn has been established, the previous high point should be used as a reference index, which has little practical significance and the later change will be higher than expected. At present, the area of corn is no longer a problem that can be decided, so the forward price should appear at the height of 1000 cents. As the saying goes, Xiao He only exposed sharp corners, and the later harvest was broken.
Analysis of domestic corn futures: 1. From the fundamental analysis, first, the domestic corn supply and demand imbalance, resulting in a certain gap. Then by the end of September, 20 1 1, domestic corn will reach the most tense level, and the domestic corn futures price will reach the high price of 2600-2800 yuan.
2. The domestic and international corn futures prices are arranged on a positive basis, and the near and long-term prices will continue to expand.
3. The price trend of corn directly affects the price of soybean meal, and the increase of soybean meal is expected.
4. From the perspective of the two major corn producing countries in China and the United States, their stocks have been exhausted, and it is possible to replenish their stocks. Therefore, the bullish factor will support the futures price for a long time, and its rising cycle will be extended.
5. Soybean, wheat, cotton and other varieties adjacent to corn will compete for the supplementary increase of planting area, and their stocks are also being further digested. Therefore, it is easy to see the pattern of rotation of various varieties.
To sum up, domestic corn, that is, corn consumption has undergone a revolutionary consumption expansion after the last deep processing and expansion. Corn futures showed a historic bull market, both in the American market and the domestic market, which will be vividly displayed in the later period. Now is the best time for enterprises to buy hedging, and as investors, it will be a huge historical opportunity to find the price, so it has reached the decisive moment of buying on dips and holding for a long time.
We need to pay attention to the supply and demand balance of corn in China, and the core of the increase in demand lies in the demand for feed corn. First of all, according to the data of feed industry association in 2009, it is estimated that the total output of feed in China will reach 65.438+0.48 billion tons in 2009, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. Among them, the output of compound feed was115.35 million tons, up by 8.9% year-on-year; The output of concentrated feed was 26.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; The output of additive premix feed was 5.92 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year. According to the proportion of corn in various feeds, the general concentrated feed needs 4 times of grain raw materials, while the premix needs 9 times of grain and protein to become compound feed, and the annual output of compound feed is 308.85 million tons. The compound feed contains 50% corn (the substitution of raw materials such as wheat and broken rice may increase), so it can be inferred that the domestic demand for corn is1544.25 million tons. Of course, the data released by the state is largely due to domestic balance and relatively conservative. Then we can calculate it from another angle.
In 20 10, China imported more than 50 million tons of soybeans, all of which were used for crushing, and 40 million tons of soybean meal were crushed. However, we still haven't seen the phenomenon of squeezing domestic soybean meal, which has been digested by feed enterprises. Then the total consumption is calculated according to the compound feed, and the content of soybean meal accounts for 12%- 15%. According to the ratio of 12%, the national feed output should be 330 million tons (mainly a part of the replacement consumption of miscellaneous meal), and the proportion of corn in compound feed accounts for 50%, so the calculated corn consumption is 654.38+65 million tons. According to the ratio of 15%, the national feed output should be 266 million tons, and the proportion of corn in compound feed accounts for 60%, so the calculated corn consumption is 159 million tons. Therefore, it can be calculated that the domestic corn feed grain should be more than 65438+600 million tons. This amount is already the total output of domestic corn in previous years.
20 10 domestic corn deep processing has also increased, among which the consumption of enterprises such as Jilin Huanglong and Jilin Dacheng has increased, and the domestic corn deep processing consumption is about 40 million tons.
From the balance table of supply and demand, it can be inferred that the overall balance of corn in China will change. In previous years, the national and local reserve carry-over inventory was about 40 million tons every year, but by 20 10, the domestic carry-over inventory will reach the lowest point of 70 10000 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will be 3%, which obviously reflects that the domestic corn will be more tense next year. If the carry-over inventory next year is less than 6,543,800 tons or close to zero, then China needs to import a lot of American corn to meet domestic demand. We expect that China will import 5-8 million tons of American corn next year. The balance between supply and demand we have made is an estimate of the bumper harvest without weather problems this year. It can be said that the domestic corn supply and demand will be very tight next year, and corn will be bullish for a long time. In addition, it is necessary to ensure that the domestic corn planting area will increase and the weather will be good in the coming year, which will also increase the risk premium for the future corn futures market.
We are looking at the data of China corn balance table given by USDA, which can be described as a world apart. In particular, the carry-over inventory of corn in China has been continuously improved. The data itself lies in confusing the eyes of Chinese people. When the weather disaster occurred in Russian wheat, the US wheat futures rose sharply, while the US Department of Agriculture drastically lowered the US corn carry-over inventory and continuously lowered the US corn production this year. Its own root lies in the fact that the huge interests have raised the price of corn in the United States. It can be said that Si Mazhao's heart is a passerby. In the past, the main competitor of American corn sales in Asia was China, but there were some problems in China this year and a large number of imports were needed next year, so the value of American corn was greatly improved, and the price was corresponding to its value. Therefore, it is reasonable for the United States to start the inter-annual rising market of corn in advance.
Second, the analysis of the supply and demand situation in the US and international corn markets.
20 10,10/0/0. On October 8th, USDA unexpectedly lowered the yield of American corn by 20 1 1 year, and lowered the yield to 155.8 pu, and it was/kloc-in September and August. The inventory carried forward in the whole year was 902 million, and the inventory consumption rate of 6.6% was the lowest since 15, second only to 5% in 1995/96, because the crop yield report of USDA was not announced as the final yield until 1, and the possibility of further reduction in the next two months was not ruled out. The USDA seems to be sending a signal to the market that the corn market is facing a supply crisis. We can look at the balance sheet of supply and demand of corn in the United States.
First, the supply and demand situation of corn in China
First of all, let's analyze the domestic corn production situation this year. In 2009, the main corn producing areas in Northeast China suffered from severe drought, reducing production by 20 million tons. The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that the corn output in that year was 654.38+66 million tons. However, due to the low quality and poor bulk density of corn, the actual yield should not reach 65.438+600 million tons. The weather is good for the main corn production in Northeast China this year. Except for some areas in Jilin Province affected by heavy rainfall, other areas enjoyed bumper harvests, among which Heilongjiang increased production by 654.38+0.5-0.2 million tons. However, the planting area in North China and Huanghuai areas is the same as last year, and the output is basically the same as last year. Therefore, the overall domestic output has increased by about 20 million tons, and our output is 654.38+86 million tons. Mainly reflected in this year's domestic corn weather is good, there is no large-scale first frost, corn quality is the best in recent years, high bulk density, low moisture, and grain output is better than expected. The increase in northeast China is mainly in circulation, while the decrease in domestic production is mainly in circulation compared with 2009.
Secondly, in the inventory structure, we can see that in 20 10, the state subsidized 70 yuan to buy corn for central enterprises (mainly transportation subsidies). The upside-down policy has made many private enterprises and private enterprises dare not rashly enter the domestic corn market to buy in large quantities, which has a great impact on the market, so that a large amount of domestic corn is concentrated in the hands of the State Reserve. This year, domestic corn, whether it is feed or deep processing, has increased significantly compared with 2009. Therefore, through many auctions, the transaction is still active and the price is rising. At present, there are 6,727,900 tons of corn left in the national reserve and 284,000 tons of corn transferred across provinces. As 10. 1 came into the market in the new year, by the end of September of 20 10, the domestic corn stock was 701.190,000 tons. As of 10. 1, we know that the corn inventory of feed enterprises in China is 1- 1.5 months, which is basically at a low level compared with previous years.
According to the data obtained from the investigation, we calculated the balance table of corn supply and demand in China, and we need to focus on the expansion of corn in feed grain in China.
Third, the huge domestic demand laid the foundation for the bull market. It can be clearly seen from the above figure and the transaction volume of corn auctioned by the State Reserve that in 20 10, the national animal husbandry was prosperous, the prices of meat, eggs, milk and other fields rose in an all-round way, and the demand for soybean meal and corn continued to expand, among which the demand for corn feed reached1600,000 tons. Feed consumption is close to the output of 20 10. Due to the high price of wheat, the role of wheat in replacing corn is obviously reduced, and the demand for inverted corn is also increasing. In addition, China imported a record 6.5438+0.5 million tons of American corn this year.