After the opening today, the China stock market was really affected by the decline of the peripheral stock market (Hong Kong stocks fell by 800 points on the first day after the opening of the New Year, and rose by 305 points on the second day, but it was still very weak. Hong Kong stocks rose 500 points in the middle today. If this momentum can be maintained in the afternoon, it will be good for the domestic stock market), and the main force will once again take the opportunity to suppress the exchange. However, the decline narrowed at midday, and some stocks turned red in advance. Afternoon is the key. If the funds withdrawn before the holiday in the afternoon intervene again, it will reverse the decline of the market this morning. As it is now at a turning point, it is recommended to wait until the direction of the market is determined, so that the safety of your own funds can be minimized. If you want to intervene, please be careful. As long as the stocks in your hand are not some financial, real estate, steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemical and some over-hyped Olympic, agricultural, sugar and alkali price-rising stocks and junk stocks that caused the crash, they are all safe, so don't panic for the time being. American recession will definitely have a negative impact on China's economy, but it is not fatal. Because the China administration signed a series of big contracts and economic cooperation agreements with France and Britain in the early stage, there is a concerted effort to expand their economic ties, reduce their dependence on the American economy and reduce the impact on China's economy. The real factor that determines the future of China stock market is China's economy. As long as China's economy continues to develop at a high speed, the bull market in China stock market will not end there. Changes in the economic level will bring changes in the political level. The recession in the United States has created an opportunity for China to catch up with the United States. Once in a hundred years. On that day, the skyrocketing market was magnified. The news that the country opened nearly 654.38+02 billion shares of two funds became the protagonist of the day's surge, which attracted the "partial" intervention of the funds that had been waiting and seeing some time ago, forming a big red disk, and many of the funds that were waiting and seeing were hot money, which showed fast forward and fast out, which was an unstable factor in the market outlook. If Shanghai can break through the suppression of 46 19, it will have a chance to see the high point of 5 130. If even 5 130 can be broken, then it is confirmed to be a real reversal. At that time, it will attract more funds to enter the market and push the stock market to hit 5500 points. Only after breaking through 5500 points can the big market in this area really appear. It is suggested that the layout should be dominated by stocks with good performance, and this wave of market may be dominated by performance waves (there have been similar situations before). Since off-site funds are only partially involved now, when off-site funds are involved on a large scale, the market in 2008 naturally appears. The situation of Shenzhen stock market is better than that of Shanghai stock market. Shenzhen Breakthrough 166 15 Suppression. If the market outlook can continue this upward trend, please pay attention to the vicinity of 178 10. If it can break through, it will enter the rising channel and reverse the recent decline in one fell swoop. If the market can't break through the pressure point, please pay attention to avoid short-term risks. The negative impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on the psychological level of investors may continue to spread. Late on Friday, the U.S. stock market fell across the board, and the Dow Jones index fell more than 100 points. Concerns about economic growth prospects have returned to the market, offsetting the positive impact of Amazon's announcement of the stock repurchase plan. More and more people are worried that the problem of subprime mortgage is spreading to mortgage securities, auto loans and other forms of credit markets, and the number of credit card default cases is also increasing. In fact, those who are psychologically bearish are the least optimistic. If the U.S. stock market remains depressed in the first few trading days after the holiday, it may spread to China stock market in a short time, which will have an impact on China stock market, with short-term risks. Please be cautious (of course, the rise of US stocks is the most ideal situation that most people want to see, which will make the external situation of China stock market more optimistic. Before the plunge, most stocks suffered heavy losses again, and then the organization once again threw out five reasons for the stock market crash! 1. External factors suffered a sharp drop: the institution believes that the sharp drop in the external stock market led to the sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks, which in turn implicated the sharp drop in AH shares and A shares, forming an indirect linkage with the China stock market. The negative impact of this reason on the China stock market is affirmative, because AH shares are basically heavyweights in China, and the stock market cannot be immune to the decline of heavyweights. First of all, the banking industry is most affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. Take Bank of China as an example, the company directly lost as much as 7 billion RMB in the subprime mortgage crisis, and the resulting reduction of corporate loan line by 20 billion RMB is a follow-up effect. The deposit reserve ratio was raised by 0.5 percentage points again. According to experts' estimation, this will directly cause the bank's performance to shrink by more than 15%, and the banking industry will be hit hard by this. However, institutional analysts have claimed that this will not affect the optimistic expectations of the banking industry. Since it will not affect the profit expectation of the financial sector, why does the latest fund report show that the fund is exporting a large number of financial stocks, and the main players of many financial stocks basically have most chips during the period when retail investors hesitate? Their purpose is obvious. Retail investors are scrambling to use them to ship goods. How can the fund get away with it so smoothly? The second most negatively affected subprime debt is the real estate industry. Recently, house prices in some areas have fallen rapidly, which has a negative impact on the market outlook. Will continue to expand, real estate-related sectors will be directly or indirectly negatively affected, and the profitability of related companies will be greatly reduced. Therefore, many shares in real estate have recently shown signs of the withdrawal of main funds, and the market outlook of this sector is generally not optimistic. Secondly, companies with export as the main profit channel will be directly affected by the economic recession in the United States, while steel, nonferrous metals, electricity and other sectors are affected by the negative policies of the state, and some stocks have recently shown signs of being shipped in stages. As expected, these plates will be seriously differentiated. Second, the third-tier stocks may become the target of the main fund selling, because the profitability is not good, and they may be devastated under the long-term macro policy. The main force also realized it and began to evacuate early. Therefore, the sharp drop in the external stock market is only a superficial inducement (in fact, it can't have a fatal impact on the China stock market at all, and it is all caused by the institutional homeopathic stock exchange). Institutions keep emphasizing this reason to cover up their real intention of going out to exchange shares. 2. Profit-taking: According to the latest survey, the loss of retail investors who participated in 2007 was as high as 94%. Where did the money go? It went to the institution bag. Profit-taking is also institutional profit-taking (stock exchange). In the final analysis, this reason is the same as 1 3. Non-lifting of the ban, issuance of new shares and refinancing: This issue can directly affect the operation of China stock market. Although the lifting of the ban on the size of the non-lifting of the ban has pressure on the capital side, it has not yet reached the most serious time, which is not enough to have a fatal impact on the stock market. What really needs attention is July and 65438+February. The number of shares released in July and February will reach145.07 million. IPO of new shares will indeed put pressure on capital, but in the later stage of IPO, retail investors may pay attention to avoiding super-large-cap stocks such as China Petroleum. If the institutions sang too well before listing, saying that they want to allocate heavy positions, then think about China Petroleum. To prevent institutions from doing the same thing again! And Ping An's huge refinancing is only Ping An's unilateral wishful thinking for the time being, which is more obvious from the institutional attitude. The large-scale liquidation of Ping An and Life Insurance is the response to this huge financing. Even if the financing fund is approved by the state, it is not necessarily 654.38+060 billion, but it will be much less. 4. Entrepreneurial sector: Objectively speaking, GEM is basically a small-cap stock, which will not cause too much blood-sucking effect on stock market funds, even if the impact is only psychological. 5. Austerity policy: As mentioned earlier, austerity policy will have a great impact on the stock market, but it is directional. Some stocks that have been negatively affected by policies for a long time, such as finance, real estate, nonferrous metals, steel and petrochemical, will indeed be greatly negatively affected. However, judging from the sectors (small and medium-sized board, chemical industry, medicine and other sectors) where the fund retreated, they did not give up the China stock market, but only exchanged shares. If you pay a little attention to these retreating sectors, you can know what serious pressure will be exerted on the market after the main force retreats. These retreating sectors are almost all heavyweights, which is the real reason for the market crash, and retail investors with high chips are very risky. It is difficult for retail investors to go far if they are not large-cap stocks driven by the main funds. Steady investors should intervene in those stocks with excellent performance and strong growth that have been killed by mistake. February is mainly a period of gaining momentum and shock, and the main force is busy exchanging shares and positions, and will not launch a big market for the time being. Mainly to clean up retail investors, the plunge is also caused by the main funds. Yesterday, things got worse. There has been panic selling by retail investors, and the purpose of the main funds has been achieved. As long as the main chips are not eaten enough, the stock exchange is not completed, and the retail investors are not out, the big market will not happen. Some stocks that continue to reduce their holdings will require retail investors to stop losses when the stock price is high. After the general main force is out, it is difficult for the stock to make a difference! It can be said that this plunge is just a conspiracy of the main force. Take advantage of all kinds of unfavorable news, take advantage of the trend and lower the stock price, killing two birds with one stone. If there is no bad news, the main funds will have no excuse to suppress the market at will, and they are also afraid of angering the government's long-cherished wish to stabilize the stock market. Now the global stock market has plummeted, the deposit reserve has been raised, and the expansion has been safe. Rumors such as stock-based futures and possible early listing have become an excuse for mainstream funds to suppress the market and stocks. Anyway, the responsibility of the stock market crash will not fall on the main force. Naturally, there are many things to blame, and the real black hand and intention will be covered up. Because there are many reasons to support the stock market to continue to rise, the current fluctuation is caused by the stock exchange behavior of the main funds, and there is no problem with the big market of 8000 points in 2008! Please pay attention to the risks after the market reaches 8000 in the second half of this year. It is suggested to change to semi-warehouse operation to avoid risks! February and March should be the best stage for many stocks with good performance expectations. In the risky month, the risk in April should be the greatest. At that time, the performance wave will almost ebb and individual stock differentiation will increase rapidly. The long-term record of the stock market also shows that April is the month that should be paid attention to, and some stocks with overdraft performance should be replaced this month! The Olympic Games may be a watershed in the stock market, but it is not the end of the stock market! In fact, whether the bull market will end is not worrying. It is a law that the stock market goes up and down. If it reaches 8000 in 2008, it will drop to around 5500 after the Olympic Games. After a period of silence, the China stock market will still challenge a new high. As long as China's rapid economic development does not stop, China's stock market will not stop. Many years later, when the China stock market stands at a high of 20,000 points, we may find that the original 8,000 points is only China. What people should pay most attention to is the latest situation of the plate! The expectation that China's large passenger aircraft companies are expected to be established before February 13, 2008 may induce hot money to speculate on relevant favorable companies. As the speculation involving hot money is a relatively short market, please pay attention to the risks. Basically, it can produce good performance from February to April every year, and the duration of a wave is relatively long, which is the driving energy of the main wave of the market, which is very different from the theme market driven by pure hot money mentioned above! Now it is basically necessary to shift the focus of stock selection from the short-term speculation on the price increase of agriculture, Olympics, chemical fertilizer, military industry and sugar, alkali and potash fertilizer to the stocks with excellent performance, and lay out the performance waves that may break out at any time in advance to maximize profits! The electric power department recently announced that it will impose a long-term price limit on electricity prices, which is bad news for the department, so the profit expectation of the department is lowered! It remains to be seen whether Shang Fulin's announcement that it will push the venture capital sector to the market in the first half of the year can sustain the attack of hot money on the venture capital sector. Please be careful when chasing heights!