A method of analysis from the perspective of the actual supply and demand of commodities and the influence of demand on commodity prices. This analysis method pays attention to the implementation of national political, economic, financial policies, laws and regulations, and the direct or indirect influence of commodity production, consumption, import and export on commodity supply and demand.
The specific contents include information collection, basic research and basic analysis. For futures investors, it is difficult to determine the trend of futures price movement without rich experience and sufficient analysis. Whether investors can make accurate analysis to ensure the success of investment must obtain enough relevant information as the basis for decision-making and analysis. Many investments often fail, and an important factor is the lack of sufficient information.
This is one of the most fundamental principles of the basic analysis method, which should be analyzed from the following aspects:
1, analysis of factors affecting the change of commodity supply and demand
2. Factor analysis of economic cycle changes
3. Analysis of factors of financial and monetary changes
4. Analysis of political and news factors
5. Analysis of seasonal factors
6, speculation and psychological factors analysis
Technical factor analysis method
1, k-line diagram
The research method of K-line is to infer the strength comparison between the long and short sides of the futures market through the combination of K-lines for several days in a row, and then judge who is dominant in the long and short sides of the futures market, which is temporary or decisive. K-line chart is the most important chart for various technical analysis. There are more than a dozen K-line patterns in a single day, and the types of K-line combinations in a few days cannot be counted. After summing up experience, people have found some combinations that are instructive to futures trading, and new research results are constantly being discovered and applied. K-line was originally invented by the Japanese and is widely popular in East Asia. Many futures investors often come into contact with the K-line chart when doing technical analysis.
2. Analysis of technical indicators
Indicators should consider all aspects of market behavior, establish a mathematical model, give a mathematical calculation formula, and get a number that reflects the inherent nature of a certain aspect of the futures market. This number is called the index value. The specific values of the index values and their relationships directly reflect the state of the futures market and provide guidance for our operation. Most of what the indicators reflect cannot be directly seen from the market statements. There are many technical indicators in the futures market. For example, Relative Strength Index (RSI), stochastics (KD), Trend Index (DMI), Similarities and Differences smma (MACD), Energy Tide (OBV), Psychological Line (PSY), Deviation Rate (Deviation) and so on. These are all well-known technical indicators, which have been used in the futures market for a long time. Moreover, with the passage of time, new technical indicators are still emerging.
3. Morphological analysis
Morphological category is a method to predict the future trend of futures prices according to the trajectory shape in the price chart in the past period of time. The first hypothesis of technical analysis tells us that market behavior contains all information. The form of price is an important part of market behavior, and it is the concrete performance of the futures market after feeling all kinds of information. It is reasonable to use the trajectory or shape of the price chart to infer the future of futures prices. From the shape of the price trajectory, we can infer what kind of environment the futures market is in, which has a certain guiding role for our future investment. The main forms are M head, W bottom, head and shoulder top, head and shoulder bottom and so on.
4. Moving average
Moving Average (MA) is a technical analysis method based on Dow Jones' concept of average cost and the principle of moving average in statistics. It connects the average stock price in a period of time into a curve to show the historical fluctuation of the stock price, and then reflects the future development trend of the stock price index. It is an intuitive expression of Dow's theory.