1.May crude oil, weak US dollar, supply problems in Nigeria and Iran's nuclear dispute made oil prices rise further. 2 1, nymex) July WTI light crude oil futures settlement price hit a record of 133.5438+07 USD per barrel. In May, the average spot prices of WTI, British Brent crude oil and Asian Dubai crude oil were 125.38, 122.72, 1 19.50 USD/barrel, respectively, which were significantly higher than those in April. Oil prices rose nearly $4/barrel in May, mainly because the better-than-expected employment data in the United States eased the market's worries about the US economy; The news that Turkish warplanes launched air strikes against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq has triggered market concerns about the possible damage to the export oil pipeline in northern Iraq. Subsequently, Nigeria's oil production facilities were attacked by rebels again, and Shell confirmed that the pipeline of Boni light crude oil terminal was damaged. The news that port workers in Marseille, France plan to go on strike for one day on May 9 also supported the rise in oil prices. At the same time, in the face of western demands, Iran continues to refuse to suspend its nuclear program, which also supports the rise in oil prices. At the same time, Goldman Sachs also announced that the oil price may rise to $ 150 ~ 200 per barrel in the next six months to two years, making the crude oil price hit a record high for five consecutive days. On the 9th, NYMEX June WTI crude oil futures price reached $25.96 per barrel/kloc-0. In the middle of the year, the price of crude oil fluctuated at a high level. On the one hand, the market is worried about the growth of oil demand in China, the second largest oil consumer in the world; On the other hand, rising global heating oil prices and speculation that Iran may cut production have contributed to the high oil prices. After 19, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hinted that no decision would be made to increase production this summer, and US oil inventories declined. As a result, the price of crude oil continues to rise. On 2 1 day, the settlement price of monthly WTI light crude oil futures in NYMEX rose by $ 4. 19 per barrel, setting a record of $33.5438+07 per barrel. This is the biggest one-day increase in dollar-denominated crude oil futures prices since March 26th. Subsequently, the market took profits after hitting a new high for four consecutive trading days, and oil prices fell. At the end of the month, international crude oil prices fluctuated greatly. On the one hand, affected by the news of the Nigerian pipeline attack, the price rose; On the other hand, due to the reduced demand for crude oil and petroleum products in the United States, the market is worried and prices have fallen sharply. On the 30th, the price of NYMEX fell to 127.35 USD/barrel in recent months. 2. refined oil in may, the prices of heating oil and gasoline in Europe and America hit record highs. The strong price of heating oil proves that the global gasoline/diesel supply is tightening, which has also become one of the main factors pushing up crude oil. In late May, the average price of conventional self-service gasoline in the United States reached a record $3.94 per gallon, up $0.73 from the same period last year. With the increase in gasoline prices, the demand for gasoline in the United States shows signs of weakness. According to the report of us energy information administration (EIA), since the beginning of this year, the gasoline demand of American consumers has decreased by 1.7% compared with the same period of last year, and there has been no seasonal increase in gasoline demand. In addition, with the weakening demand for distillate oil in overseas markets, the demand for distillate oil in the United States also declined at the end of the month. Singapore's oil price hit a record high in May. Due to strong demand and limited European arbitrage goods flowing into the Asian market, naphtha prices rose. The price of distillate oil rose. Fuel oil prices continue to hit record highs, which traders attribute to higher heating oil prices in the United States, strong demand for fuel oil in the Middle East and Europe, and possible rise in crude oil futures. The forecast is 1. Crude oil is affected by strong demand growth in developing countries, slow supply growth and the turmoil in some important producing countries. Since it broke through 100 USD/barrel for the first time at the beginning of the year, NYMEX crude oil futures have climbed nearly 40%, with a cumulative increase of 18% since May. At present, the prices of crude oil and refined oil have risen to the price that makes many analysts stunned. Even if the market expects the Fed to suspend interest rate cuts and the dollar rebounds, the oil price will only be temporarily adjusted back. After that, it quickly stabilized and broke through the historical mark of 130 USD/barrel, and closed above 133 USD/barrel for the first time. Against the background of crude oil supply concerns, international oil prices are rising, and record highs have almost become the norm. This also makes the call for OPEC to increase production more and more high. Although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in public more than once that the recent surge in oil prices was caused by the stock market downturn and the depreciation of the US dollar, there is no shortage of crude oil supply. However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has also indicated that it is prepared to increase production if the market shows that further measures are needed. The decline in oil demand in the United States reflects the record high oil prices and the decline in oil consumption caused by the weak American economy. Geopolitical factors continue to push up oil prices. Since 2006, there have been frequent attacks and kidnappings against oil facilities in Niger Delta, the main oil-producing area of Nigeria, the largest oil producer in Africa. So far, more than 200 foreigners have been kidnapped there. The current turbulent situation makes Nigeria's crude oil production only about 2 million barrels per day, which is about 1/4 lower than the peak of 2.6 million barrels. In addition, in the face of the demands of western countries, Iran continues to refuse to suspend its nuclear program, which also supports oil prices. Speculative funds are still on the market, day trading. Speculative funds poured into commodity markets, including crude oil, and used it as a tool to hedge inflation. Under the pressure of US congressmen to crack down on speculators, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said it would strengthen market supervision. With the United States entering the peak season in road trip, the peak of gasoline consumption is coming, and the concern about gasoline supply will probably make the international oil price hit a new high. At present, geopolitical factors, speculation and the exchange rate of the US dollar will continue to affect oil prices in the coming months or even years. The Short-term Energy Market Outlook released by EIA predicts that the spot average price of WTI this year is 109.53 USD/barrel, which is 5 1% higher than that in 2007 and 9% higher than the previous annual average price of 100.6 1 USD/barrel. EIA also predicts that the average price of WTI spot crude oil will be 1 12. 19 USD/barrel in the second quarter of this year, and will even rise to 1 14 USD/barrel in the third and fourth quarters. Goldman Sachs also published a report in May that the shortage of supply will make the oil price rise to $65,438+$050 ~ $200 per barrel within two years. Maybe one day, when Asia's economic development also starts to slow down, oil prices will fall. Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for the average price of oil in recent years: in 2008, the average price was raised from $96 to 108, in 2009, from 105 to 10, and from 20 10 to 20 10. At the end of May, 2008, Reuters raised its oil price forecast again in the surveys of several consulting organizations, mainly considering that the long-term supply in the oil market may be limited and the demand in emerging markets is strong. Financial analysts surveyed by Reuters generally expect that the WTI price in the second quarter and the third quarter of 2008 will be 1 13.04 USD/barrel and 1 12.82 USD/barrel respectively, and the Brent price will be11652 USD/barrel respectively. It is estimated that the WTI price in 2008 will be 107. 13 USD/barrel, which is higher than the forecast price in last month's survey by 10.27 USD/barrel. Brent crude oil price per barrel 106. 12 USD, up 10.72 USD from the last survey. Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have risen by 40%. In late May, WTI futures once rose above 135 USD/barrel. The sharp rise in oil prices exceeded analysts' expectations, which also forced these institutions to continuously raise their oil price forecasts. Analysts say it is becoming more and more difficult to predict oil prices. Since May, WTI and Brent crude oil have turned to positive spreads, which means that crude oil in recent months is cheaper than crude oil in distant months, and traders are encouraged to increase their inventories. The increase in the price of forward contracts may be related to the producers covering short positions. Higher forward contracts reveal that people expect crude oil prices to remain high for a long time. The supply and demand reports of major research institutions in May are summarized as follows. EIA released the "Short-term Energy Market Outlook" that although the demand for crude oil in the United States will slow down, factors such as increased global demand, normal seasonal inventory levels, slow supply growth in non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and reduced excess capacity all have strong support for oil prices. However, the agency believes that the impact of high oil prices and slowing economic growth in the United States on crude oil demand will be greater than previously estimated. This report predicts that compared with a year ago, the demand for crude oil in the United States will decrease by 1.9 million barrels per day this year, with a decrease of 0.9%, which will be the biggest annual decrease since 1.99 1. The agency predicted last month that the demand for crude oil in the United States will only drop by 90,000 barrels per day this year. The report predicts that the demand for crude oil in the United States this year may fall to the lowest level since 2003. According to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency in May, the increase of world oil demand in 2008 is expected to be lower than expected due to the high oil price and the slowdown of economic growth in the United States and other industrialized countries. This year, the global daily oil demand is expected to increase by 6.5438+0.3 million barrels, which is 230,000 barrels less than the previous estimate. However, in 2008, the demand growth rate of emerging market countries remained at 3.7%, which increased by 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day, with the fastest growth in China and the Middle East. IEA said that weak oil demand growth lowered the forecast of crude oil demand of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to 3,654.38+0.3 million ~ 3,654.38+0.6 million barrels per day. In its latest market report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicts that the global demand for crude oil this year will be slightly lower than last month's forecast. The report estimates that the global total demand for crude oil in 2008 averaged 86.95 million barrels per day. This figure is 20,000 barrels lower than the forecast demand announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in April. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimates that the demand for crude oil in the United States will remain unchanged this year, while the demand for crude oil in other industrial countries will decrease slightly. However, the demand for crude oil in some newly industrialized countries that are not OECD members will continue to grow rapidly. In its report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that all expected demand growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, such as China, Indian, Middle Eastern countries and Latin America. 2. After the earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, the related air transportation is busy, and it is expected that China will increase the procurement of aviation kerosene.