The financial crisis that started in the United States has evolved into a global economic crisis. The impact of this crisis on the United States, developed economies, and emerging markets has become increasingly obvious. In 2009, the world may experience the worst crisis since World War II. Severe economic recession. Although governments around the world have made great efforts to save the economy, there are currently no signs of the end of the crisis, and the crisis is still spreading and developing in depth. This round of crisis is probably not a simple economic crisis, but more likely the beginning of the adjustment of the world economy from imbalance to rebalancing. The correction of economic imbalances will continue to have a profound impact on developed economies and emerging markets. , and the impact on emerging markets will be more significant. After the full-scale financial crisis broke out in August 2008, the world's major central banks all adjusted their direction, shifting from fighting inflation to fighting recession. Major currency interest rates were significantly lowered. It is expected that this interest rate cutting cycle will continue until 2009. We are still optimistic about the performance of the U.S. dollar during the economic crisis. The U.S. dollar may not repeat the strong rise in the autumn of 2008, but the overall forecast is still strong and has room to continue to rise. The trend of European currencies will be relatively weak, and the euro and pound will continue to rise. Differentiation, the Japanese yen became popular as a safe haven in 2008, and this trend will continue into 2009, while the deviation of commodity currencies from the CRB index exceeds the normal range, indicating that despite the huge decline in commodity currencies, there may still be Overrated. The strong appreciation trend of the RMB has been suspended as scheduled. Looking forward to 2009, there is basically no possibility of the RMB continuing to appreciate. As the only control tool that can be used for the export sector, after the RMB interest rate bottoms out, China's exchange rate policy is likely to be adjusted. The possibility is very high, and the risk of RMB depreciation is still rising. A review of the foreign exchange market in 2008. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States finally evolved into a financial crisis that swept the world in 2008. Under the impact of the rare financial crisis in many years, the foreign exchange market also experienced unprecedented huge fluctuations. Currencies have experienced the largest single-day, single-week, and single-month fluctuations in history. The foreign exchange market, which has always been known for its stability, once had volatility that was close to that of the securities and futures markets. In our annual outlook at the end of 2007, we predicted that the U.S. dollar would rebound, and it turned out to be as expected. However, the magnitude and strength of the U.S. dollar's rebound still surprised the market. The trend of the foreign exchange market in 2008 can be basically divided into two stages. First, in the first half of the year, stimulated by interest rate differential expectations, non-US currencies led by the euro continued to rise, and the euro once hit a historical high of more than 1.6; second, in the second half of the year Later, especially after August, stimulated by the financial turmoil, global investors sought hedging and deleveraging, and funds poured into U.S. dollar assets represented by U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. dollar rebounded strongly, while non-U.S. currencies plummeted. Figure 1: Annual performance of European currencies (as of December 18, 2008). The trends of European currencies have clearly diverged. Among them, the Swiss franc has performed the strongest. Its safe-haven status has made its selling relatively light. The exchange rate at the end of the year is even higher than the level at the beginning of the year; the euro The performance ranked second. The European Central Bank's tough attitude on interest rates is still the biggest support point for the euro; the British pound performed the weakest, even close to parity with the euro. The collapse of the British property market shows that the British economy may be worse than that of the European continent in the future. The British pound Interest rates will also be lower. The U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and RMB became the strongest performing currencies in 2008. The special status of the U.S. dollar allowed it to escape years of weakness; the unusually strong performance of the Japanese yen exceeded the expectations of all investors. The reasons and future trend assessment will be discussed in detail later; the trend of accelerated appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar came to an abrupt end in mid-2008. In fact, it has been switched from semi-pegged to the US dollar to pegged to the US dollar. Therefore, the RMB also follows the US dollar. Strong appreciation against non-US currencies.