From the perspective of interest rates, for example, the domestic two-year US dollar deposit rate is 0.75%, while the RMB is 2.75%, with obvious spread. Judging from the purchasing power of the US dollar and the RMB, the US dollar is stable, and the long-term "external appreciation and internal depreciation" of the RMB is very obvious.
Then, back to the main question, if it is hundreds of thousands, it is equivalent to several million yuan, but the short-term (two-year) deposit interest rate varies greatly. Judging from the spread, the difference between the equivalent US dollar and RMB deposits is more than 20,000. And if it's tens of thousands of dollars, the difference is that the interest difference of equivalent RMB deposits for every 10 thousand dollars is several hundred yuan. It is also a high interest income from RMB deposits.
Really for high net worth people, if the asset size is above 20 million, then people who hold dollars for a long time can gain stable "purchasing power" to preserve their value and lose interest income at the same time. Interest income is not worth mentioning for "purchasing power depreciation".
However, if it is an ordinary family, generally according to the current foreign exchange control, it can't have a lot of dollars, accounting for less than 10% of family assets at most, so it is of little significance to use dollars to preserve purchasing power.
In itself, it is of little significance to discuss this issue, because RMB is not freely convertible, that is to say, whether the economy has nothing to do with you and you can't choose freely, so you can only hold RMB or RMB assets (deposits or other assets).
For those who have long-term foreign exchange income, such as long-term large remittances from overseas relatives, business income from overseas dollars, and long-term holding of US dollars or US dollar deposits is definitely a hedge. But it will inevitably lose interest income (China-US interest spread).
The so-called security, if the deposit is in domestic banks, such as the four major state-owned banks and large banks, the security of the deposit is no problem. Whether it is USD or RMB, there is a minimum principal guarantee of RMB 500,000 in the Deposit Insurance Law. In the long run, if the RMB depreciates at a rate of 6-7% per year, the purchasing power is very stable compared with the US dollar-it should be the most stable currency in the world, which is why whenever financial risks occur, the safe-haven funds in the world are willing to hold the US dollar.
From a safety point of view, it is definitely cost-effective to change money into dollars. Make the following analysis.
First of all, let me share my cousin's practice. A few years ago, he converted 500,000 RMB into US dollars. At that time, the exchange rate of USD against RMB was1:6,365,438+05 RMB, and the total amount of USD converted into USD was 79,000 USD. Cousin thinks the dollar has room for appreciation.
Judging from the current exchange rate between the US dollar and RMB, my cousin's approach is correct and his hunch is correct. Just this year, when RMB was exchanged for US dollars in 7 yuan, my cousin tried his best to exchange US dollars for RMB, which amounted to 553,000 yuan, with an overall appreciation of more than 50,000 yuan. If you invest in RMB, there will be a lot of depreciation in recent years.
Judging from my cousin's practice, why is it more cost-effective to change money into dollars now from the perspective of safety? There are several reasons.
1. The dollar is the currency of the United States, and the United States is the leader of the global economy. As the currency of an economic power, it is very safe to analyze the dollar from the perspective of security.
2. The US dollar is a global currency, and it can be freely exchanged in all countries of the world. However, the RMB is not a complete international currency at present, and it has some polarities.
3. Renminbi is the currency of China, and China is a developing country. The currencies of developing countries are not comparable to those of the world, and they are definitely different from the US dollar in terms of liquidity and security.
Based on the above three reasons, these factors are the advantages of the dollar. According to the comparison between the current US dollar and RMB in 20 19, the US dollar is definitely safer.
But in the long run, the appreciation potential of the RMB is definitely greater than that of the US dollar. Undoubtedly, the appreciation space of the US dollar is already very limited. Although the renminbi has more room for appreciation than the dollar, it does not mean that the renminbi is safer than the dollar. From a security point of view, there is no doubt that the dollar is safe.
Let me give you a conclusion first. Unless your family really needs a lot of money for asset allocation, there is no need to exchange RMB for RMB. When I say asset allocation, I mean that there are at least two properties in first-tier cities, and the total amount of financial investment products such as stocks, funds, cash and wealth management products exceeds 6,543,800 yuan. Such families or individuals can diversify their investments and exchange part of their money for dollars, and other civilians can forget it. The reason for this is the following：
In the past year from May 2020 to the present, the dollar has depreciated by nearly 10%. If someone spent 7 1000 yuan on flowers a year ago, now this 1000 yuan can only be exchanged for 64,500 yuan, resulting in a direct loss of 6,500 yuan a year; If you replace 355,000 yuan with 50,000 dollars (individuals can only exchange 50,000 dollars in foreign exchange every year), now this 50,000 yuan is worth 322,500 yuan, and the loss is 32,500 yuan a year.
On the other hand, the dollar is still depreciating, because as soon as President Biden took office, he introduced an economic stimulus bill of $65,438 +0.9 trillion, which directly injected a lot of dollars into the capital market. After that, President Biden will continue to inject US dollars with a high probability, and a special investment plan of US$ 600 billion in infrastructure is in the pipeline. In the past few days, President Biden has been preaching the importance of infrastructure and the importance of American manufacturing, which is the initial propaganda to release 600 billion US dollars. Therefore, it is still difficult to stabilize the value of the dollar in the short term, and it is a high probability event to continue to depreciate slightly.
Even if the monetary policy of the United States slows down in the later period, the exchange rate of the US dollar will not rise sharply, but at most it will rise steadily or slightly. Theoretically, the rise needs to bear a great risk of depreciation, and there is no need to make investments with risks greater than returns.
Some friends will ask, why change into dollars in advance, and it will not make money if it appreciates?
Everyone should know that you will continue to invest after changing dollars, and there is almost no interest on putting dollars in the bank. Buying dollar wealth management products is the choice of most dollar holders. However, you can look at the yield of dollar wealth management products. Compared with RMB wealth management products, the yield is much lower. Therefore, after switching to US dollars, we must expect the US dollar exchange rate to rise sharply, and use exchange rate gains to offset the losses caused by the low yield of wealth management products.
The Federal Reserve has previously stated that the United States will not consider raising interest rates before the end of 2022. If the dollar exchange rate wants to rise, it is necessary to raise interest rates, so that global capital will flow to the United States to embrace the dollar and its assets, and more people will exchange dollars, and the dollar will naturally appreciate. At present, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly reiterated on various occasions that it will not raise interest rates in the near future, which is undoubtedly the biggest obstacle to the appreciation of the US dollar.
If the subject really considers changing dollars, it is suggested to pay more attention to financial news, financial bloggers, American economy, employment data and other information. Only when the US economy basically returns to its pre-epidemic state will the Fed consider raising interest rates. At this time, the exchange rate of the US dollar may rise slightly, and only by converting it into US dollars can you make money.
I don't play foreign exchange and don't pay much attention to exchange rate changes, but I still know the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar.
At first, eight dollars was exchanged for one dollar, and later, six dollars was exchanged for one dollar. Compared with the US dollar, the RMB has appreciated, and less RMB is needed for the same US dollar.
At present, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is not a unilateral appreciation, but a fluctuating state. At present, the exchange rate has broken seven. If it is only for the purpose of holding, whether it is short-term holding or long-term investment, I am not optimistic.
In the short term, Sino-US relations have become more tense from easing, and the situation is not clear, so it is difficult to judge the trend of exchange rate. In the long run, I personally think that sawtooth fluctuations are dominant.
From the perspective of asset security, I think it is safe to hold US dollars and RMB.
China and the United States are the top two economies in the world, with large economies and high risk resistance. If any currency of these two countries suddenly goes wrong, it will be disastrous for the world.
If you are worried about a certain currency, it is recommended to choose gold and physical gold. There is little room for gold appreciation, but its function of maintaining value is widely recognized. As the saying goes, do you choose gold in troubled times? If RMB or USD is not safe, it must be in troubled times, so it is more reliable to choose gold.
At present, it is better to deposit RMB directly than US dollars.
First of all, in terms of the security of bank deposits, Bank of China is higher than Bank of America. Bank of China is safer, while Bank of America is more risky, and it is at risk of bankruptcy at any time, such as the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual Bank in 2008. The latest media165438+1October 20th reported that in the past month, three banks in the United States have closed down, namely National Bank of New Jersey, Lelout Bank in Mommie, Ohio, Louisa Community Bank in Kentucky and so on. So it's risky to deposit money in the bank of America.
Second, as far as deposit interest is concerned, we all know that the deposit interest of American banks is very low and there is almost no income. If you have to pay a handling fee to change RMB into dollars, it will be even more uneconomical. At present, the interest rate of major banks in China is around 0.35%, and the minimum time deposit is three months and the longest is five years, and the interest rate is between 1.43%-3.575%.
Third, the depreciation of the dollar is certain, and its depreciation rate is faster than that of the RMB. Many people think that if the growth rate of RMB m2 is too fast, the RMB will definitely depreciate, and the depreciation rate of RMB will exceed that of the US dollar. In fact, in the last five years, the RMB has never crossed 7 yuan, with little fluctuation. The US dollar is one of the major currencies in the world and the dominant currency in the world. It is also the world's gold-priced currency. Under the current situation, the depreciation of the US dollar is an indisputable fact.
Third, the US economic downturn and the impact and harm of the US subprime mortgage crisis have accelerated the depreciation of the US dollar. With the recent economic downturn in the United States, the national debt has been climbing to a historical high. In order to save the American economy, the Fed can only solve it by cutting interest rates and increasing the speed of printing money. Although it temporarily eased the American economy, it actually hides huge risks. If the national debt continues to rise and becomes more and more difficult to pay, it will lead to the deterioration of the world economy and the dollar will be even less valuable.
Conclusion: Therefore, it is better to deposit RMB directly than US dollars. The value of the dollar is no longer there, but the status of the renminbi is rising rapidly and the prospects are better.
It's definitely not appropriate to change dollars now. The exchange rate of US dollar against RMB rose from 6.26 in April last year to 7. 19 in September this year, reaching 14.8%. If interest is included, the one-and-a-half-year return is around 17%, which is a good investment.
However, I don't think it is appropriate to stand at the present time. Since last year, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar for specific background reasons. Last year, the Sino-US trade war started, and both sides continued to increase taxes. In this process, the RMB depreciated, but when the RMB exchange rate exceeds 7, it means that there is no room.
It is beneficial for export-oriented enterprises to adapt to depreciation in the early stage, but it will have adverse effects if they continue to depreciate continuously. However, the current economic situation in China has stabilized, and the central bank has full confidence and ability to ensure the stability of the RMB exchange rate. In the future, the people's depreciation may remain above 7, but the space for further depreciation has been locked.
Therefore, it doesn't make much sense to exchange dollars at this time. If one year later, the form of trade eases, the macro economy picks up, and the RMB strengthens again, you will lose money if you change RMB again. Even after one year, it is not cost-effective to keep the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB at the current level, because the interest rate of the bank's US dollar deposit is very low, far less than the interest rate of the RMB time deposit, and the opportunity cost will be lost, which is not worth the loss.
No one wants a currency that continues to depreciate ... no one in this world is a sand sculpture [covering his face] [covering his face].
Although I said that I had no surplus food in my life, I saved food and I didn't buy a house, I thought:
One: If you really have money, you'd better invest in buying a house. Because the real estate in our country is very strange: the higher the house price is controlled, the more houses are not copied. In addition: land sellers, real estate developers, developers, builders, banks, intermediaries, etc. Everyone has the shadow of the public (thousands of words are omitted below). It's good to enjoy the cool under the big tree. If you have enough money, it's not too late to buy the last express ticket for real estate! Don't worry that the real estate express will overturn and reduce the price, because there are too many people on board. Besides, the country will not let this express train derail or overturn! This is the strange phenomenon of real estate!
Two: If you have a lot of money, there is no need to change it into dollars. Because the United States is a hegemonic country that controls international finance, they can print US dollar bills 365 days a year. If you print money day and night, your dollar may depreciate or be cut!
Three: The safest, most reassuring and most valuable way is to exchange money for gold bricks and bury them in a field two meters deep in your pigsty or cowshed. I can see my wealth every day, feel at ease, rest assured, and sleep on my heart! Besides: in all dynasties, real money and silver are hard currency, and they are the last straw to save lives in times of peace and prosperity or in troubled times!
Four: copying stocks, copying futures and other venture investments are all gambling. Not a game played by ordinary people. The knowledge and water in it are too deep. If you are not a swimming instructor in the swimming ring, you may drown and lose everything! ..... For example, if you spend money to buy an old hen for someone else, you are looking forward to selling some eggs to subsidize your family after laying eggs in the future. I'm afraid of the old hen. The eggs are cooked. Finally, you didn't see any eggs, chickens, chicken feathers, or even a bite of chicken soup. As the saying goes: you think about eggs, and people even think about your chicken and eggs together!
Five: the ancients said: antiques are hidden in prosperous times, and gold and silver are hidden in troubled times. It makes sense! The above is my opinion, not necessarily correct!
Standing at the time node of 2020 1 1 month, it is the most worthwhile behavior to directly convert RMB into US dollars and save it. Observing the global dollar exchange rate for half a year, we can find that the depreciation rate of the dollar zone is much higher than that of other countries' sovereign currencies, especially the international mainstream currencies such as RMB, Euro, Japanese yen and British pound.
The negative impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic in 2020 on the American economy has continued to this day. At present, the cumulative number of people infected with the novel coronavirus epidemic in the United States has exceeded 9 million. So far, the phenomenon of medical runs in the United States still appears. This will have a fatal impact on the economic recovery in the United States. In order to stabilize the US stock market and the US economy, the Federal Reserve injected huge amounts of liquidity at all costs.
So far, the national debt of the United States has reached $27 trillion, plus Trump's previous stimulus plan of $65,438 +0.8 trillion and the national fiscal gap of $ 3. 1 trillion in the second half of the year, adding up to $30 trillion, the annual interest is close to 1 trillion. The probability of repaying the principal is extremely low, so we can only survive by depreciation, and share some of the pressure through the US dollar global settlement system.
Generally speaking, the dollar will experience great inflation or exchange rate depreciation for a long time to come. At the meeting in September, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul made it clear that the United States would not continue to cut interest rates and hoped that the inflation rate in the dollar zone would be anchored at around 2% in the future. However, for a long time before this, the inflation rate of the US dollar was less than 1%. If the average reaches 2%, 2020 will be dollars.
More than 60% of the world's assets are directly linked to the US dollar, which means that 3% of the world's wealth will evaporate in 2020. Are you waiting for a bigger depreciation or appreciation when you change your wealth into dollars? The probability should be clear. The interest rate reduction cycle of the US dollar has just begun, and the interest rate increase cycle will appear at least in the second half of 202 1. It may be a good time to bargain for dollars at that time.
A friend of mine has a forward-looking view. He realized this problem four or five years ago. He changed his money into $654.38 million+,without saving or investing. He left it at home, waiting for the dollar to appreciate. Until the RMB exchange rate broke 7 this year, his children also went abroad to study, and the money came in handy.
As the legal tender of the two largest economies in the world, the exchange rate relationship between them may fluctuate, but it is impossible to have a huge contrast, otherwise the global economy will be greatly affected. From this perspective, the security of RMB and USD is relatively good.
For ordinary investors, the security of dollar assets and RMB assets is the same. As for which is cost-effective, different people may have different opinions. For people who have lived in China for a long time, it is more cost-effective to hold RMB assets.
Since most people live in China for a long time, our actual consumption is settled in RMB, and the investment and wealth management products are mainly in RMB. If you want to convert funds into dollars, the main purpose is to prevent RMB from depreciating, then whether it is cost-effective depends on the exchange rate relationship between RMB and USD.
I think it's better to hold RMB or US dollars. Although the exchange rate between RMB and USD will fluctuate, RMB, as a local currency, is more flexible, more convenient for investment and financial management, and has a higher return on risk-free investment and higher cost performance.
First, our daily income and consumption are settled in RMB, and holding US dollars will be subject to many restrictions. First, the exchange procedures are complicated; second, there are costs for exchange; third, there are limits for exchange, which will take up time, energy and funds.
Second, there are very few financial products on the market that can manage money in dollars. If it is converted into dollars, it usually just leaves the funds idle, unable to generate asset income, and is a loss in the long run.
Third, from the perspective of investment yield, the risk-free investment yield of RMB is about 5%, and the risk-free investment yield of USD is about 3%. The gap between the two is relatively large, and it is more cost-effective to hold RMB.
The above are personal opinions and are for reference only.