On the one hand, the plan points out that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new cars. 5% lower than the draft of 20 19 12.3. In 20 19, subsidies for new energy vehicles declined, and in 2020, the new energy vehicle industry was hit hard by the epidemic. Although the new energy vehicle market is gradually picking up, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from June to September were 738,000 and 734,000 respectively, down by 18.7% and 17.7% respectively.
On the other hand, by 2025, the average power consumption of new electric passenger cars in China will drop to 12.0 kWh/ 100 km.
In addition, the plan points out that it is necessary to promote the development of the full value chain of power batteries. Encourage enterprises to improve the support capacity of key resources such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum. Establish and improve the modular standard system of power batteries, accelerate the breakthrough of key manufacturing equipment, and improve the process level and production efficiency. Improve the recycling system of power battery recycling, cascade utilization and recycling, and encourage the co-construction and sharing of recycling channels. Establish and improve the management system of power battery transportation, storage, maintenance, safety inspection, scrapping and recycling, and strengthen the whole life cycle supervision.
It is worth noting that the plan means speeding up the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure. This year, the power exchange mode is in full swing, welcoming unprecedented development opportunities. For example, Weilai launched the battery rental service and adopted the BaaS model, and the car purchase price will be reduced by 70,000 yuan, officially opening the car-electricity separation mode. Geely Science and Technology Group has signed a contract to transform more than 65,438+0,000 power stations nationwide.
CICC believes that the further improvement of intelligence and charging and replacing infrastructure is expected to strengthen the trend of consumer demand. "We believe that the new forces and intelligence led by Tesla will effectively guide consumers' cognition. At the same time, the complete charging and replacing infrastructure will continue to alleviate consumers' car anxiety, and further strengthen the medium and long-term growth trend of new energy vehicles dominated by consumer demand in combination with parity. "
Influence of the Tenth Five-Year Plan on New Energy and Cobalt Industry
SMM believes that the plan has comprehensively planned the new energy vehicle market in China, planned the new energy market sales in 2025 and beyond more reasonably, and can also correspondingly drive the demand for power lithium batteries in the future, in which cobalt and lithium raw materials account for a relatively high proportion, so the demand for cobalt and lithium raw materials will still maintain a high growth rate in the next five years and in the long term.
Among them, optimistic expectations consider:
1, the local subsidy policy has increased substantially;
2. The demand for battery replacement has increased;
3. The output of China's "new force for building cars" or Super Tesla, etc.
Pessimistic expectations:
1, the state subsidy policy will decline;
2. Insufficient policy support for battery replacement mode.
In the short term, SMM neutral expects that the output of new energy vehicles in China will push the demand for cobalt to increase by nearly 365,438+0% year-on-year to 2026,5438+0 metal tons; It is estimated that in 2022, the output of new energy vehicles in China will boost the demand for cobalt by nearly 35% year-on-year, reaching 23,000 metal tons.
This article is from SMM.