Black swan is unpredictable, because most black swan events happen in extreme Stan.

1. Extreme Stein, also known as the "long tail" system, is a highly uncertain catastrophe system with low predictability.

2. The black swan event refers to an extremely unpredictable and unusual event, which usually causes negative reactions or even subversion in the market chain. The black swan incident has three characteristics:

0 1. This is unexpected;

02. Have a significant impact;

03. Human nature urges us to find reasons for it afterwards, thinking that it can be explained and predicted.

Predictable accidents are not accidents. Human thinking will be limited by the inherent knowledge and experience, always thinking that they know a lot, but in the field of black swan, there is always a limit that knowledge can't reach. The human brain, accustomed to thinking independently with systems related to past experiences, can only speculate from the events that have happened, so it always thinks that the black swan event can be predicted afterwards.

Second, why does the prediction bring iatrogenic damage?

1. Everything in today's social and economic life is dominated by the "black swan", and the black swan itself is difficult to predict. Coupled with the development of modernization, the proportion of extreme Stan is increasing, and the February 28th effect is deteriorating, which leads to further deterioration of predictability.

2. Iatrogenic damage, that is, damage with net loss or exceeding therapeutic benefit, is damage caused by human intervention and is usually hidden or delayed.

3. Therefore, people will predict that the natural pressure and chaotic state of the system will be eliminated artificially, which will lead to all risks hidden in the ground and accumulated continuously, eventually causing irreparable huge losses.

Third, look back at Howard Musk's view on prediction and think that we can't predict, so what can we do?

1. Howard Marx's latest memo: predicting the future is the most unreliable. His main points are:

0 1. The future is just a forecast, but we need to know where we are.

On May 28th, 2002, he published the latest memorandum "Uncertainty II", which went on to explain that human beings have no ability to predict the future at all, but we always hope to acquire the ability to peep into the future.

03. Most people don't understand, don't know if they don't understand, and can't tell who really understands. Most people confuse professionalism with predictive ability. Most people regard rich and powerful people as people who can predict the future.

2. What we can do is to solve the unexpected confusion, pressure and frustration with the ternary structure theory of vulnerable class-tough class-anti-vulnerable class.