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International situation of soybean futures
According to the global oilseed supply and demand forecast released by USDA on June 5438+1October 65438+1October 0 1 3, the global oilseed output forecast for13 is 465.8 million tons, an increase of 2.8 million tons compared with last month's forecast. The global soybean output is estimated to be 269.4 million tons, an increase of 65.438+700,000 tons, of which the increase in the output of the United States and Brazil only partially offset the decrease in the output of Argentina.

Due to the increase of planting area and yield per mu in Brazil, it is estimated that the soybean yield in Brazil will increase by 6.5438+500,000 tons, reaching a record level of 82.5 million tons. Due to too much rain in the central planting area, the yield per mu decreased. It is predicted that Argentina's soybean output will be 54 million tons, which is 6.5438+0 million tons less than last month's forecast. The export sales volume of soybeans in the United States was flat at 65.438+34.5 million bushels, and it is estimated that the ending inventory of soybeans at 65.438+02/654.38+03 will be 65.438+35 million bushels, an increase of 5 million bushels compared with last month's forecast.

The following figure is the chart of USDA USDA2006-20 12+02 annual global soybean supply and demand report (unit: million tons). As can be seen from the chart, soybean production and consumption have been on the rise since 2008, and soybean production and consumption have alternately surpassed, and demand has risen steadily. It is estimated that the global soybean output in 12/ 13 is 2694 10000 tons, which is higher than the consumption. The estimated ending inventory is 59.46 million tons, higher than last year. It is estimated that the global soybean supply exceeds demand. Judging from the international demand supply situation, it does not support the sharp rise in soybean prices.