Main factors driving the rise in international oil prices (short and difficult to replace) and limitations in crude oil reserves and production, make crude oil prices very sensitive to factors affecting supply and demand, and highly volatile. Second, the imbalance in the supply and demand structure of crude oil makes the supply and demand relationship of crude oil tense. Every link from reserves, production, transportation, refining to sales is very important. Changes in factors in any of these links will affect the fluctuation of crude oil prices. . Third, although the supply and demand of crude oil are roughly equal, any variable on the supply and demand side or related variables that affect supply and demand often determines the price trend within a certain period of time. Uncertain factors such as wars, terrorist attacks, strikes by oil workers and other emergencies seriously affect or even influence the trend of oil prices. Fourth, under normal circumstances, the decline in crude oil inventories during economic recession has little support for oil prices, while the increase in crude oil inventories has a greater destructive effect on oil prices; while during the economic recovery and prosperity stages, the increase in crude oil inventories has a negative impact on oil prices. It has a calming effect, but the decline in crude oil inventories will greatly support the rise in oil prices. Fifth, when the economy is in recession, demand for crude oil decreases, and prices fall, the production reduction measures of oil-producing countries are often unable to restrain the decline in oil prices, and increasing production will accelerate the decline in oil prices; while in economic recovery, demand for crude oil increases, and oil prices rise, increasing production It will have limited effect on stabilizing the rise in oil prices, and production cuts will significantly aggravate price rises. Sixth, speculation and market expectations in the crude oil market often increase the volatility of crude oil prices. Speculative factors in the international crude oil market have a 10%-20% influence on crude oil prices. (A-Xa

From the analysis of the recent sharp rise in international oil prices, it is mainly the result of the following six factors: h}@>

1. The global economic recovery continues to drive oil Increased demand is the basic inducement. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has grown rapidly, and the demand for crude oil has exceeded the prior expectations of international authoritative organizations. In particular, the economies of the United States and China, the world's two largest crude oil consumers, have experienced strong economic growth, and Japan, the third largest crude oil consumer, has seen strong economic growth. The economic situation has also improved significantly. According to the latest estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global daily crude oil demand growth in 2004 was 2.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.3%, and global demand growth in the first half of this year was as high as 3.9%. ; The total daily global market demand was 82.2 million barrels (see Figure 2), while global oil demand increased by only 0.78% in 2003. Therefore, the global economy has continued to improve in the past two years. , leading to a surge in oil demand approaching its maximum supply capacity, leaving supply and demand in a fragile balance, which is the basic factor triggering this wave of continued rise in oil prices!~r

2. OPEC’s remaining production capacity. There are few auxiliary factors. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the global daily crude oil supply in 2004 was 82.7 million barrels, an increase of 4.2%. Among them, OPEC crude oil supply was 28.8 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, global crude oil supply is slightly greater than demand this year. However, commercial inventories in major developed countries are at historically low levels, making global supply relatively tight. Especially at present, the remaining production capacity of OPEC countries is very limited, with only about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels. Except for Saudi Arabia, other member countries have already produced oil at full capacity. Although there is no global supply shortage, it is certain that OPEC production is approaching the limit of current capacity, which makes people worry about the world's crude oil supply. Worries about the outlook. 0qp

3. OPEC’s decision to cut production at the beginning of this year added fuel to the fire. At the beginning of this year, OPEC was worried that oil prices would fall and adopted a policy of limiting production to protect prices. OPEC’s wrong judgment of the situation made the oil market on fire. Adding oil. OPEC decided at the ministerial meeting on February 10 to reduce the daily crude oil production limit by 1 million barrels from April 1. The price of crude oil in the international market rose in response, although OPEC oil prices have exceeded US$28 for more than 80 consecutive trading days. However, instead of activating the production increase mechanism, OPEC reduced production by 1 million barrels per day to keep oil prices high. In addition, due to the strong recovery of the world economy, OPEC is less likely to have high oil prices impact the world economy and cause losses to both parties. Concerned, finding ways to control oil prices at high levels has naturally become OPEC's ideal choice. 0Tx6

4. The U.S. dollar has continued to depreciate since April 2002. Although it has rebounded recently, due to the long-term decline. Since oil exports have been mainly priced in US dollars, some OPEC countries believe that the depreciation of the US dollar has caused the actual price of US dollar-denominated oil to fall below the price bottom line they insist on (25 US dollars). Dollar. Therefore, OPEC countries have actually given up on their earlier commitment to "activate the automatic production increase mechanism when the oil price is above US$28 for 20 consecutive days" and prefer to control oil prices at the upper limit of the price band. QQ93

5. Uncertain factors such as terrorist attacks are the main cause of short-term fluctuations. First of all, after the end of the main U.S. war with Iraq, terrorist attacks on oil facilities continued one after another, causing the situation in Iraq to remain unstable. Oil exports have been difficult to return to pre-war levels, which has cast a new shadow on the world oil market.

Secondly, the domestic political situation in Venezuela, OPEC’s third largest oil producer, is unstable, which has seriously affected the production and export of crude oil. Third, in May this year, the Russian government issued an ultimatum to Yukos to recover huge tax arrears. The bank account of Yukos Petroleum Company has been frozen. Yukos faces the threat of bankruptcy, which directly affects oil production and exports. Yukos Petroleum Company The daily oil production is 1.7 million barrels, accounting for 2% of the global total production. !

6. Speculative activities have contributed to the surge in oil prices. The tightening relationship between oil supply and demand and the frequent occurrence of various geopolitical conflicts have created conditions for speculative activities. The hype of international speculators has enhanced people's psychological expectations of tight crude oil supply in the international market and artificially raised the international oil price. oil prices. It is estimated that about 70% of current international oil futures transactions are speculative. According to a recent Reuters survey, analysts expect that speculative factors have increased the price of crude oil in the U.S. market by about $8 per barrel. a)pB

Basic judgment on the trend of international oil prices in the next few months jHaoW?

There are different opinions on the judgment of the direction of international oil prices in the next stage, but there are no more than the following three views: 1. One is to continue to climb; the other is to run at a high level; the third is to fall back from a high level. ZpZ3G+

The business community, traders and investment analysts believe that some of the key factors driving up oil prices will not change fundamentally in the short term, so international oil prices will remain high in the short term. If a serious impact on crude oil supply occurs, it is very likely that oil prices will rise again at the current price and exceed the "mark" of US$50 per barrel. Once there is no oil from Iraq and Venezuela on the market, oil prices will explode to as high as $70 a barrel. Y pO

Oil companies and oil-producing countries believe that international oil prices will run at a high level and there will be limited room for a fall. The slowdown in global crude oil demand growth in the second half of the year will not lead to a sharp drop in oil prices, because even if demand slows down, the gap between supply and demand is still large, and the space for oil prices to fall is limited. Since the current production capacity utilization in oil-producing regions such as OPEC has been basically saturated, the pressure for lower oil prices will be very relaxed. The only thing that will intensify the decline in oil prices is a hard landing in the economies of China and the United States, because these two countries are the driving force of world economic development and major oil importers. |U~kT

Some international institutions believe that international oil prices will fall from their current highs. After hitting a record peak of nearly $50, oil prices will return to a stable level of around $30 a barrel within a few months. Once the current volatility dissipates, market forces will eventually stabilize oil prices and return them to equilibrium prices within a few months. Because the world's oil supply growth potential is actually greater than demand, and oil-producing countries still have a certain ability to increase production. In addition, members of the International Energy Agency have billions of barrels of strategic oil reserves, and many countries are also establishing strategic reserves. Therefore, the international oil market is still safe. space. i

We believe that based on a comprehensive analysis of information from all parties, the international oil price (WTI) will not remain at a high level above US$40 per barrel for too long, and is expected to steadily fall back to around US$35 per barrel by the end of the year. The annual average price is about US$38 per barrel. This judgment is based on the following reasons: H`C9

First of all, global economic growth shows signs of slowing down. In the second quarter of this year, U.S. economic growth was revised down to 2.8%, significantly lower than economists' expectations of 3.6%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points lower than in the first quarter; Japan's economic growth pace also slowed down, with GDP growth of only 1.7% in the second quarter. , a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from the first quarter. As the effects of macroeconomic control policies gradually emerge, China's economic growth will moderately slow down, and demand for oil will decrease. Therefore, under the double blow of high oil prices and global interest rate hikes, world economic growth is likely to be suppressed, which will subsequently reduce demand for crude oil. According to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global crude oil demand growth will be 2.6% in the second half of this year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the first half. vG0Oy=

Secondly, after a period of replenishment, crude oil inventories have increased. As of the end of July, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 298.6 million barrels, an increase of 18.4 million barrels from the same period last year; while the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit a record high, reaching 664.5 million barrels. According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, global oil inventories rose at a rate of 300,000 barrels per day and 1.5 million barrels per day in the first two quarters of this year. B~=a

Third, several major uncertainties currently affecting the international oil market are expected to be alleviated. First, as Iraq regains its sovereignty, it will help the domestic reconstruction process and the easing of the domestic situation. A stable domestic environment is a prerequisite for Iraq to supply crude oil to the international market. Second, Venezuelan President Chavez won the referendum and will continue to be in power until the end of his term in January 2007. This will help ease Venezuela's domestic instability and ensure normal crude oil production and exports. Third, whether it is acquired by a state-owned oil company, foreign investment, or bankruptcy, the Russian Yukos incident that has lasted nearly a year will be resolved in the near future. "H

Fourthly, international speculative institutions that were involved in oil price speculation in the early stage have taken profits at high levels, which will also cause oil prices to oscillate lower.

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The impact of rising international oil prices on my country's economy |<_m;S

Currently, our country is in the mid-stage of industrialization. The rapid development of manufacturing has led to a sharp increase in consumption of energy such as oil, and Imports are rising year by year, and dependence on foreign countries is increasing. Because my country's extensive economic growth model has not yet been substantially transformed, the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries is too high, and the GDP output value per unit of energy consumption is too low; at the same time, our country has not yet established a relatively complete oil market system, with a single trading method and a rigid pricing mechanism. , the market responded slowly. There is no doubt that the continuous surge in international oil prices has had a considerable negative impact on my country's economic operations and residents' lives. High oil prices will not only increase foreign exchange expenditures, increase corporate costs, and increase residents' consumption expenditures, but will also intensify inflationary pressure. However, the current high oil prices will not change the basic trend of my country's economic growth. n

The adverse impact of rising international oil prices on my country's economy is mainly reflected in the following aspects: qR+

1. Increased foreign exchange expenditures and increased pressure on foreign exchange balance. Preliminary estimates indicate that the average crude oil price per barrel this year is estimated to be around US$38 per barrel, an increase of up to US$10 per barrel compared with last year's average price of US$28. It is expected that my country will import crude oil for the whole year to reach 120 million tons, equivalent to about 880 million barrels. The rise in international crude oil prices by up to US$10 per barrel will directly lead to China spending US$8.8 billion more in foreign exchange on oil purchases throughout the year. Moreover, my country's import of crude oil alone will cause a trade deficit of more than 30 billion US dollars this year, putting greater pressure on my country's trade balance. "G

2. Increase enterprise costs and compress profit margins. As oil prices rise, the prices of petroleum-related products will inevitably rise, causing an increase in the costs of our country's enterprises, directly affecting transportation, metallurgy, and fishery. , light industry, petrochemicals, agriculture and other related industries have varying degrees of impact. In the current oversupplied international and domestic markets, the production costs raised by these industries due to rising oil prices cannot be passed on to downstream enterprises or final consumers in whole or in part. , the profitability of various industries will decrease or even lead to serious losses, enterprises may shrink their production scale, and the economic vitality of the whole society will decrease. -s2 f:

3. Increase personal consumption expenditure. Consumers will directly be the bearers of high oil prices. Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous rise in international oil prices, my country has raised the price of refined oil three times, which has significantly increased the expenditure of some consumers in this area and led to some consumption contraction or consumption transfer behavior. . Rising oil prices have become one of the main reasons for the weak sales of family cars this year. h6

4. The continued rise in international oil prices will increase domestic energy prices and make oil-based energy sources less likely. Rising prices in raw material-related industries have created new factors for price increases. my country's new round of price increases that began at the end of last year has two sources. One is the increase in food prices, and the other is the increase in energy and raw material prices due to international competition. Due to the pressure of rising oil prices, my country has raised the price of refined oil products three times, which has intensified potential inflationary pressure to a certain extent. According to a May 2004 report jointly conducted by the International Energy Agency, the OECD Economic Department and the IMF Research Department, if If the oil price rises by US$10 per barrel and continues for a year, China's inflation rate will increase by 0.8 percentage points. aa

5. The high oil prices this year have already affected the United States, Japan and Europe. The country's economic growth has had a certain negative impact. Judging from the economic data in the second quarter, the economic growth rate is showing signs of slowing down. The slowdown in economic growth in major economies will reduce my country's external demand to a certain extent and affect our country. Foreign trade exports. n

However, high oil prices will not change the basic trend of China's rapid economic growth. First, the current increase in oil prices is the result of various accidental factors and does not have long-term characteristics. Oil prices will fall back to a more suitable price. Secondly, a series of macroeconomic control measures will help alleviate the shortage of China's oil market and alleviate the inflationary pressure caused by rising oil prices. Thirdly, the current performance of Chinese enterprises is relatively good. To a certain extent, it can absorb part of the cost pressure caused by high oil prices. In the first seven months of this year, my country's industrial enterprises above designated size maintained a profit growth rate of 39.7%. Fourth, in China's energy consumption structure, raw coal accounts for approximately 10%. 70%, and oil accounts for about 23%, which is not a dominant force. Although the proportion of crude oil and natural gas is increasing, it will have a certain negative impact on China's economy, but its impact is still under control. Fifth, the actual average trading price of crude oil. The price is lower than people usually think. On the one hand, some oil import contracts have prices determined in advance; on the other hand, New York West Texas crude oil, which everyone is generally concerned about, is a better-quality oil, and its price is usually 2-2 per barrel higher than the European Brent oil price. 3 US dollars, which is higher than the OPEC basket oil price of 5-6 US dollars per barrel. According to customs statistics, the average import price of my country's crude oil in the first half of this year was US$33.8 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the average import price of refined oil products increased by 6.1% year-on-year, far lower than the 21% increase in the New York and European markets during the same period. u]@m1

Response measures that should be taken in the near future 4#0P5J

1. Elevate energy conservation to the level of a basic national policy. In 2003, my country's crude oil and raw coal consumption were 7.4% and 31% of the world's respectively, while the GDP it created was only equivalent to 4% of the world's.

Our country's energy consumption is very large, the energy utilization rate is very low, and the potential for energy saving is huge. Faced with the impact of rising international oil prices on my country's economic operations and people's lives, we must take practical measures to comprehensively carry out energy conservation activities, and elevate energy conservation to the level of a basic national policy. ~a=

2. Accelerate the marketization of domestic oil product pricing. At present, the domestic "mid-point price" is still set by the state, and is one month later than the international market. From the perspective of the price mechanism, the Chinese oil market cannot be said to be market-oriented in the true sense. The recent launch of fuel oil futures trading is an important milestone. However, fuel oil accounts for a small proportion of my country's total oil consumption, and the price of fuel oil futures cannot yet achieve the role of hedging and risk avoidance for the entire oil product. Other oil products currently have a low degree of marketization and cannot be traded in futures. my country's economy continues to grow rapidly and the demand for crude oil continues to increase. It has become the world's second largest crude oil consumer. With China's share of the Asian crude oil market, it is entirely possible to launch its own crude oil-related futures and form a landmark regional market. Price can resist the risks caused by price fluctuations to a certain extent. Therefore, our country should speed up the pace of marketization of domestic refined oil prices, change the situation of oil prices rising more than falling, further standardize the price formation mechanism, and speed up the launch of futures trading of mature varieties. ]

3. Use part of the national debt funds to develop and utilize new energy. The development of alternative energy and renewable energy is a world trend for sustainable development, and it is also a top priority for my country to transform its economic growth model. Our country already has the ability to compete with conventional energy in terms of solar water heaters, wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation, geothermal heating and geothermal power generation, and biomass energy utilization technology. As long as appropriate policy support is given, it is expected to become an alternative energy source. Increasing the proportion of new energy in energy consumption and minimizing dependence on imported oil is a major issue facing my country's future energy construction. The government can consider using part of the national debt funds to support the development of new energy sources. y .UL

4. Increase efforts in oil exploration and development along China’s coast. Currently, there are abundant oil and natural gas resources underground in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Increasing exploration efforts in these areas can increase China's self-production capacity and reduce its dependence on foreign oil. While "putting aside disputes", our country should actively develop these resources; at the same time, it must maintain good relations with neighboring countries, avoid vicious competition for oil resources, and ensure the safety of sea oil transportation. [V

5. When international oil prices rise, try to repatriate overseas shares of oil. In recent years, the “going out” strategy of Chinese petroleum companies has achieved certain results. Currently, CNPC has oil shares in Sudan, Venezuela, Peru, Kazakhstan and other countries, and has produced a total of 60 million tons of crude oil overseas. In addition, Chinese oil companies such as Sinopec and CNOOC have also extended their tentacles overseas.

When international oil prices rise sharply and domestic import costs rise sharply, the share of oil produced by our country's oil companies should be brought back to the country as much as possible to reduce the price risk of directly importing crude oil from the international market