1. Analysis of soybean meal supply factors
The production and consumption of soybean meal, international market and domestic market are introduced, which are all important factors affecting the price of soybean meal. The supply of soybean meal mainly consists of three parts: a. Pre-inventory is an important part of total output. The amount of pre-inventory reflects the degree of supply tension, the price of supply shortage rises, and the price of supply is abundant. B, the current output. The current output of soybean meal is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, soybean squeezing income and production cost. Imports of soybean meal. China is about to join WTO, and the soybean meal market is becoming more and more international. In recent years, China has become an importer of soybean meal, and the international market has an increasing influence on the domestic soybean meal market. Therefore, we should understand and master the changes in the international market, international price level, import policy and import volume as soon as possible. The United States is a big exporter of soybean meal. Every Thursday, the United States Department of Agriculture releases a report on American export sales, which contains the export data of American soybean meal, including the export data of the United States to China, which is of great reference value.
When analyzing the supply and demand of soybean meal, special attention should be paid to the short storage time. In the south, the storage time of soybean meal is usually 3-4 months, but it can be stored for about 8 months in the north, which makes the soybean meal turn around quickly in the spot market, and traders hope to complete the transaction in a short time. Once the storage time is too long and the quality of soybean meal changes, manufacturers can only sell it at a reduced price. This characteristic of soybean meal storage determines that once there is centralized supply, the regional price of soybean meal will fall immediately. For example, the centralized arrival of imported soybean meal will affect the relationship between supply and demand in the surrounding areas of import ports, leading to a decline in soybean meal prices. The short storage time of soybean meal not only promotes the market circulation of soybean meal, but also causes the frequent fluctuation of soybean meal price.
In addition, other factors affecting the supply are: domestic soybean processing capacity, the relative production cost of substitutes (such as other cakes, corn, etc. ).
2. Analysis of soybean meal demand factors.
Soybean meal demand usually consists of three parts: domestic consumption, export volume and final commodity balance. A. domestic consumption. It is not a fixed constant, but varies under the influence of many factors. The main factors affecting domestic soybean meal consumption are: the development of domestic feed industry, the change of consumers' purchasing power, the change of population growth and structure, and the government's policy to encourage the development of feed industry. B. export volume. Under the condition of a certain output, the increase of export volume will reduce the supply in the domestic market; On the contrary, a decrease in exports will increase domestic supply. At present, China's soybean meal production can't meet the domestic demand, so there is no soybean meal export. C, the final balance of goods. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods exceeds demand in that year, and the futures price may fall; On the contrary, it will rise. Due to the short storage time of soybean meal, the ending inventory data has little effect on the price of soybean meal.
The demand for soybean meal should also consider the changes of supply and demand in the international market, especially in East Asia and Southeast Asia. Consumers in Asian countries eat more poultry and pork, and aquaculture and feed industries are more developed, so there is a greater demand for soybean meal. The economic prosperity of Asian countries has a great influence on the demand for soybean meal. When the economy is depressed, Asia imports less. With the economic recovery and growth, soybean meal imports will increase.
Other factors affecting demand are: consumers' purchasing power, consumers' preferences, supply and demand of substitutes, population changes, changes in commodity structure and other non-price factors.