Basic judgment: The global economy will undergo slow and complex changes in 2014, but the economy in many regions around the world is still relatively fragile. The mining industry will further decline, investment in solid exploration will further decline, the market value of mining companies will further shrink, and the prices of important mineral products will Will fluctuate from high to low.
In 2013, the world economy was still recovering slowly, and the global mining industry entered a downward trend. The investment in exploration of solid minerals (excluding coal and iron) dropped by more than 30%, and the geological exploration activity index continued to decline. It is expected that exploration investment will further decline in 2014, and the geological exploration activity index will maintain a downward trend.
The market value of mining companies has shrunk, and domestic and foreign mineral product prices have fallen overall. According to data from the Canadian and American stock exchanges, the market value of 110 companies in the mining sector at the end of 2013 fell by more than 40% compared with the peak in early 2011. It is expected that the market value of mining companies will further shrink in 2014. The prices of major mineral products at home and abroad have fallen overall and will continue to do so, but they are still at a relatively high level.
Crude oil: Continued high oil prices. The key factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics and financial investment that determine prices in the international crude oil market have not changed significantly, and their distinctive feature is that they will continue to run at a high level. According to a survey of traders, investment banks and government agencies by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, the average price of WTI may reach US$104.9 per barrel in 2014, and Brent will be US$110.0. The continued rise in crude oil prices at the beginning of the year also confirmed the predictions of oil prices by relevant agencies. The spot price in Daqing rose from US$101.32 on January 3 at the beginning of the year to US$110.31 on March 4, an increase of 9%.
Coal: Fluctuated downward. In January 2014, the domestic coal market started with a "downtrend". On the first day of the new year, the listed thermal coal prices of Shenhua, China Coal and Tongmei Group all plunged by 40 to 90 yuan/ton. Datong high-quality blended coal dropped from the beginning of the year. 615 yuan/ton, falling to 565 yuan/ton on March 3.
At present, relevant policies for the coal industry are expected to be further improved in 2014. The reform of the coal resources taxation method is expected to start. The "Opinions on Promoting the Smooth Operation of the Coal Industry" issued by the State Council in November 2013 clearly proposed to accelerate the reform of the coal resource tax from the calculated price. Therefore, due to factors such as seasonal changes in demand, adjustments to relevant policies in the coal industry, increased efforts in energy conservation and environmental protection, and the interaction between domestic and foreign coal markets, domestic coal prices will show a volatile downward trend in 2014.
Iron ore: remain stable. In 2014, steel consumption in my country's construction industry will remain stable, and total steel demand and iron ore imports will be roughly the same as in 2013. Domestic iron ore prices will be difficult to increase. It is expected that international iron ore prices will remain stable in 2014. It is difficult for TSI quotations to exceed the highest price in 2013. The fluctuation space for the whole year is expected to be 110 to 150 US dollars per ton. Dalian Commodity Exchange launched iron ore futures on October 18, 2013. contract, the price fluctuation range of its active iron ore contract is expected to be 750 to 1,100 yuan/ton.
Copper: The shock is intensifying. From a global perspective, the next few years will be the peak period for the expansion of copper mines. Supply will increase, but demand will shrink due to the slowdown in economic growth. Supply and demand issues will restrict the trend of copper prices for a long time to come. At the same time, against the background of the continued decline in global inventories, there is still some support for the downward trend of copper prices. In addition, the stabilization and rise of the US dollar has also put greater pressure on copper prices.
In addition, the slowdown in China’s economic growth is the biggest negative for rising copper prices. The current trend of copper prices is mainly determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate greatly this year, with LME copper prices fluctuating between US$6,000 and US$7,400/ between tons.
Gold: Fluctuating downward. In 2013, the international gold price fluctuated extremely violently, with an overall decline of more than 25%. As the global economy regains its growth momentum, it is less likely that gold prices will rebound significantly in 2014. It is expected to continue to decline, but the decline will narrow. The reason is that the current gold price has basically bottomed out. The slight increase at the beginning of the year cannot change the overall trend of low gold prices. At present, the major investment banks are not very optimistic about the prediction of gold price in 2014. Among them, JP Morgan lowered its 2014 gold price forecast by 10% to US$1,263 per ounce; UBS commented that it is expected that in 2014 The average price of gold is around US$1,200 per ounce. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that its average price will drop to US$1,294 per ounce, with a minimum of US$1,100 per ounce; Commerzbank predicts that its price may fall below US$1,180 per ounce.
Benefiting from the support of spot demand, the price of gold will rise slightly in the first half of 2014, but its upward extent will be limited; in the second half of the year, the price of gold will be affected by the uncertainty surrounding higher domestic short-term interest rates in the United States. It fell amid discussions and signs of a recovery in global economic growth. Therefore, the trend of international gold prices in 2014 is not expected to be very good.
Rare earths: slightly higher. In January 2014, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with relevant departments, held a special meeting on the establishment of large-scale rare earth enterprise groups in Beijing, marking that the rare earth industry will further promote mergers and reorganizations and the establishment of large-scale rare earth enterprise groups, marking an important step in the new order of the rare earth industry. Due to the important strategic significance and scarcity of rare earths, they are likely to become one of the targets of national collection and storage.
If the national purchase and storage plan is gradually implemented in the first quarter of 2014, rare earth prices will rise steadily in the second quarter, but the increase will not be too large.